A couple of weeks ago I published a post with “My forecast of Boeing Commercial Airplanes 2017 revenues“. In that post I built a forecast of Boeing Commercial revenues based on its 2017 airplanes deliveries, orders, list prices and my estimate of the discounts Boeing applies as a relation to what it reports in the revenues vs. what it publishes as list prices.
“I’ll try to guess the figure of revenues for the Boeing Commercial Airplanes division, not so much trying to be accurate in itself, but to point in advance to the increasing of the discounts as we will see below.” (excerpt from the referred post)
My forecast for Boeing Commercial revenues was 57.0 bn$. A few days later, on January 31st, Boeing announced its 2017 results. Boeing Commercial revenues were 56.7 bn$.
As I already anticipated,
“[…] I see that their discounts have been greatly increased in the last 2017. […]
The implied discount of my revenues forecast would be in the ~ 50% range.”(excerpt from the referred post)
With those 56,729 bn$, the 2017 Boeing list prices, its 763 airplane deliveries and 912 net orders I come to an estimated average discount for Boeing commercial aircraft of 50.4%.
Boeing Average Discount Evolution, through 2017.
The Blog by Javier 
Great job! Thanks for sharing!
In my view, all your analysis pre-2017 are affected by a very wrong estimation of BCA services business (as I could see in the table you published in 2014).
By comparing 2016 revenues as reported in 2016 and as restated in 2017 (w/o services business) you could easily see that services account for 10%-11% of total BCA revenues.
If you recompute the figures for 2007-2016 using a similar % for services you will have quite some different discounts
Thanks for the comment. I’ll take a look at it, and get the new figures.