“Share your passion” (speech contest)

In this post I wanted to share the speech which I delivered at the Toastmasters International speech contest of this Spring 2018 at my club (Airbus Speakers, in Toulouse) and at the area level (comprised by 4 clubs in the region of Toulouse).

Speaking

The last time I competed in such contests was in 2012 (see here a post about that speech) and for this year of 2018 I put myself as a personal objective to take part in a contest again, in order to work deeper in a speech: drafting it, editing it, reviewing it with friends, rehearsing it… it is a good exercise. Most Toastmasters’ members do not like much to compete, but I believe it is a good learning experience as I explained in this other post.

See below how the latest speech script was left after different iterations of corrections and annotations:

Speech_script_annotated

The message of the speech: share your passion with your children and take time to enjoy it together with them, a kind of carpe diem. With that in mind, I included in the speech most of the ingredients that make a speech as complete  and varied as possible, i.e, body language, use of space, eye contact, voice variation, use of props, personal experience, quotations, etc. That is why I wanted to prepare exhaustively a speech as an exercise. See below the criteria used by the judges to evaluate a speech in order identify the ingredients.

Judge_ballot

Toastmasters’ International Speech Contest judge’s ballot.

I wanted to thank Nacho, Jaime and Luca for helping me with the preparation of the speech.

And, finally, see below the video of the speech as recorded at the area level:

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Boeing vs. Airbus: CEO compensation (2017)

For the last 4 years I have been writting a small series of posts comparing the compensation of Airbus and Boeing CEOs (1). This series started out of conversation with colleagues and I keep it updated to have a record of the evolution and for quick reference in other conversations (2). Thus, this post is just the update with the information for the 2017 fiscal year.

As both Boeing and Airbus are public companies, the information about their CEOs compensation is public and can be found in the annual report and proxy statement from each one. I just share the information and sources below for comparison and future reference.

Airbus CEO, Tom Enders’ 2017 compensation (financial statements here, PDF, 4.0 MB, page 58):

Enders_2017

Airbus CEO Tom Enders 2017 compensation.

Enders saw his base salary frozen in relation to 2016 at 1.5 M€. Variable pay decreased in 7.3%, post-employment benefit costs increased, etc. The main change in last year’s remuneration was the line “Termination benefits”, which in the notes it is explaiend as stipulated in 1.5 times the “Total Target Remuneration (defined as Base Salary and target Annual Variable Remuneration)”, as Enders announced that he will retire from the post when his current term expires in 2019. Thus, the overall compensation (9.1 M€increased.

Boeing CEO, Dennis Muilenburg’s 2017 compensation (2018 proxy statement here, PDF, 6.7 MB, page 30):

muilenburg_2017.png

Boeing’s CEO Dennis Muilenburg 2017 compensation.

Dennis Muilenburg saw his base salary increased in 50 k$. And with that all other incentive and other compensation concepts. The total compensation (18.45 M$) increased in relation to 2016 and has now raised above the 2014 levels (17.8 M$).

Comparison. It is interesting to note that while the base salary is nearly the same, 1.5 m€ vs 1.69 m$ (more so taking into account average exchange rates in 2017 (~ 1.13 USD/EUR)), the incentive schemes at Boeing end up with a total remuneration for the CEO about the double (x1.8) of that in Airbus.


(1) See the previous comparisons for the years 20132014, 2015 and 2016.

(2) From what I see in the stats of the visits to this blog, other people are having similar conversations as these posts with the compensation comparison have ranked among the top 10 most read ones the last years.

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Forecasting 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia

This a short post to share my forecast for the coming football 2018 FIFA World Cup to be played during the following five weeks in Russia.

As I introduced in a similar post four years ago for the 2014 World Cup (here), I have a work colleague who not only is a tremendous aircraft salesman but also has a great sense of humor and manages in his free time late in the night to set up a contest for office staff to try to guess winners, matches’ scores, top scorers, etc., of major international soccer competitions. The 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia, which will start this week, could not be missed. Nacho managed to set up the contest in time.

I have approached the game of forecasting this World Cup with the same method as previous times, as I have not watched a single match of national teams’ football since the previous World Cup and I have no clue of who is who and how they come to the competition. I have relied on ESPN rankings, and used its offensive and defensive coefficients to build with a simple algorithm all the scores of the competition:

  • taking into account the coefficients of both sides
  • when the difference between them was narrow, I put a draw, if resulting coefficients were high 2-2, if low, 0-0.
  • the same for victories, if the difference was high 3-0, if small and low coefficients, 1-0.
  • I also checked the numbers that different scores were repeated in the group phase in the previous two World Cups, as the most repeated ones are 2-1, 1-0, 0-0, in order to assign them in similar proportion.
  • I also checked the amounts of goals scored in the group phase of previous 2 World Cups (100 and 136 goals), to adjust the overall number of goals I would distribute.
  • Checked the goals the previous top scorers managed in World Cups to a assign a similar number.

What did I forecast?

  • A World Cup won by Brazil against Spain in the final in the penalty shootout.
  • An oddity: the algorithm provided that Spain would face 3 shootouts in this World Cup, we will see.
  • The forecast also provided that England would beat Colombia in a shootout, that may be even odder, given the historical bad luck of England at shootouts.
  • As top scorer I put Neymar (Brazil) with 6 goals.
Forecast_world_cup_2018

2018 FIFA World Cup Russia forecast.

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Normandy landings on June 6, 1944. D-Day.

Today, June 6th, we commemorate the anniversary of the Normandy landings during World War II in 1944, what is often referred to as D-Day.

A few weeks ago, we visited “Omaha beach“, one of the beaches where Americans landed, which you may have seen as, along with many documentaries, it was staged in the film “Saving Private Ryan“. The beach is about 6 kilometres long and extends through different villages. And it is not the only beach where Allied forces landed, as there were Americans landing at Utah beach as well, together with British landing at Sword and Gold beaches, more to the East, and Canadians at Juno beach.

Omaha_1

The Germans had fortified the hills, built barracks, installed obstacles in the beach and planted thousands of mines.

The landings, part of the Operation Overlord, code named Neptune, started at 6:30am, and they continued for weeks. Just on D-Day Allied forces counted 10,000 casualties with over 4,000 confirmed dead, with similar figures in the German side.

After the first days, a bridge, “Mulberry” was built to offload vehicles from boats coming from the United Kingdom. Some days during the summer up to 24,000 men or 3,000 vehicles crossed that bridge. An aerodrome was built uphill to evacuate the injured. The original bridge was brought down in the following winter by strong sea tides. Today a relic has been built, with some of the original concrete blocks visible in low tide.

Omaha_7

Today, there are several monuments along the beach, one of them Les Braves Omaha Beach Memorial. It is a sculpture that symbolizes wings of hope, freedom, fraternity.

Omaha_5

In front of it there is a monument to the 1st US Infantry Division. It has the following inscription engraved in it:

No mission too difficult.

No sacrifice too great. Duty first.

Forced Omaha beach at dawn 6 June.

Omaha_6

By the monument visitors leave candles, flowers and some written notes. Most of them stand by in silence watching the vastness of the beach, thinking of the sheer numbers of people involved in the operation and what awaited them, praying for their lost ones. Occasionally a bus comes with veterans, relatives of soldiers who fought there, you name it, and trumpet plays Taps.

Nearby, a panel reminds the lyrics of the song “Remember Omaha” by Jean Goujon.

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Repaso a la evolución histórica del palmarés de la Copa de Europa

Esta es una pequeña entrada futbolera para compartir la gráfica de debajo tras la consecución de la decimotercera Copa de Europa de fútbol por el Real Madrid.

Copas de Europa & gap

La gráfica presenta la evolución de las Copas de Europa conseguidas por el Real Madrid y todos aquellos clubes que en algún momento de la historia han sido el segundo equipo con más copas. Por orden: Benfica (Lisboa), Internazionale (Milan), Milan AC, Ajax Amsterdam, Bayern Munich, Liverpool y de nuevo Milan AC.

La idea me surgió tras un intercambio tuitero con Andrés a raíz de este tuit.

Algunas curiosidades que se observan en la gráfica:

  • Es ahora, en 2018, cuando con 6 la distancia, medida en Copas de Europa, entre el Real Madrid y el segundo club con más títulos es más grande.
  • Históricamente la distancia media ha estado en 2,8 copas.
  • La moda, es decir la distancia más veces repetida entre el Madrid y el segundo, ha sido de 3 copas. Esa fue la distancia en 24 años, el 38% de estos 63 años de Copa de Europa (ver histograma debajo).
  • La distancia mínima se dio entre 1994 y 1998, tras ganar el Milan AC su quinta Copa de Europa en Atenas y hasta la consecución de La Séptima por el Real Madrid en 1998 en Ámsterdam.

A partir de esas curiosidades, me surgieron después otras tres ideas muy visuales y rápidas de ejecutar y que incluyo más abajo:

  • Un histograma con el número de años que se ha dado cada distancia en Copas de Europa.
  • Una tabla donde se muestra en cada momento qué clubes eran los segundos en el palmarés.
  • Otra tabla donde se muestra cuántos años ha sido cada uno de esos el segundo en el palmarés.

Histograma

 

Tabla_segundos

 

Tabla_anos_segundo

De momento, y hasta la vuelta del gran Milan AC, el Real Madrid podrá disfrutar de la delantera en el palmarés hasta al menos 2026.

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Boeing commercial aircraft discounts (update for 2017)

A couple of weeks ago I published a post with “My forecast of Boeing Commercial Airplanes 2017 revenues“. In that post I built a forecast of Boeing Commercial revenues based on its 2017 airplanes deliveries, orders, list prices and my estimate of the discounts Boeing applies as a relation to what it reports in the revenues vs. what it publishes as list prices.

“I’ll try to guess the figure of revenues for the Boeing Commercial Airplanes division, not so much trying to be accurate in itself, but to point in advance to the increasing of the discounts as we will see below.” (excerpt from the referred post)

My forecast for Boeing Commercial revenues was 57.0 bn$. A few days later, on January 31st, Boeing announced its 2017 results. Boeing Commercial revenues were 56.7 bn$.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes revenues full 2017

As I already anticipated,

“[…] I see that their discounts have been greatly increased in the last 2017. […]

The implied discount of my revenues forecast would be in the ~ 50% range.”(excerpt from the referred post)

With those 56,729 bn$, the 2017 Boeing list prices, its 763 airplane deliveries and 912 net orders I come to an estimated average discount for Boeing commercial aircraft of 50.4%.

Discount evolution_2017

Boeing Average Discount Evolution, through 2017.

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Boeing 787 orders, cancellations, deliveries & backlog through 2017

Quick post with the updated figures and graphic of orders, cancellations, deliveries and backlog of the 787 programme at the end of 2017.

For the fourth consecutive year above 100 787 airplanes have been delivered in 2017, 136 deliveries, the third year in a row with above or 135 deliveries. At that pace, the backlog is being consumed quickly, especially since in the last years the wide-body market has been rather sluggish.

In the last 4 years, 351 orders for 787s were placed, offset by 87 cancellations (about 25%) for a total of 264 net orders, 94 of them in 2017, its best selling year since 2013. Book-to-bill ratio was 0.69 in 2017, less than a desired > 1, but better than in the previous years.

Since 2011, there have been 636 cumulative deliveries, that is 49% of the standing 1,294 net orders. Reversely, there is backlog of 658 aircraft to be delivered, 51% of the orders received so far.

787 orders and cancellations 2017

787 orders, cancellations, deliveries and backlog through 2017.

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