Wrong forecasts

Close to midnight of past Thursday we learnt that the winner of the KC-X competition to provide the aerial refuelling aircraft to the US Air Force was Boeing. That was cold news for our company.

I had just tweeted the previous day my bet on the competition:

I never get it right...

To reach to that conclusion I had done some numbers for fun on a late Friday afternoon some months ago in a similar fashion than the defence analyst Scott Hamilton showed in his blog. It is clear that I got it completely wrong.

As I have often told to my friends and colleagues, I am extremely bad with these predictions, as I was already mistaken when the JCA and the previous KC-X competitions were decided…

A note of humour: as my brother points out in fact I am very reliable, you just have to bet to the opposite option of my forecast.

Another colleague told us yesterday “you look like economists explaining your miscalculations…”, as someone put it “it is already hard to explain the past, it is even more difficult to predict the future”.

Already looking forward to the next win.

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3 Comments

Filed under Aerospace & Defence

3 responses to “Wrong forecasts

  1. So you bet Real Madrid is going to win the current Liga, don’t you?
    😛

    • Jaime Irastorza

      To be honest, I don´t remember a forecast of Javi concerning Real Madrid winning any title this season. In that sense, the outcome of the three titles in dispute is truly open.
      Sports in general and football offer, however, another field for his proven reliability. I´m still waiting for the several Golden Balls to be awarded to Clarence Seedorf or to see the otherwise great sprinter Ato Boldon win the Olymic Games 100m.
      I am now reading a very useful book from Javi´s own library: “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”, by Prof. Burton G. Malkiel.
      Among many interesting insights of Wall St. uses, the Odd-Lotter investing technique is outlined, by which investment pros bet against the stock selection of amateurs, the “odd-lotters”, considered to be, in average, always wrong.
      May be is time to see Javi as an odd-lotter and start making money out of it. 🙂
      (In the book is well explained why this and other techniques just don´t work any better than a monkey doing the stock selection, but that has been thoroughly commeted in many posts here by our great “odd-lotter”)

  2. hahaha… how mean of you!

    No, Jaime is correct, no forecast about Real Madrid this year.

    About my other forecasts… disclaimers:
    – Seedorf: I’ll note that he is the only player to have won the Champion’s League with 4 different teams in a time span of 12 years (1st one being 19, last one being 31)… true, despite of that, Michael Owen, Matthias Sammer or Fabio Cannavro have been awarded a Golden Ball and he hasn’t.
    – Ato Boldon: didn’t I forecast Usain Bolt? 😀

    About setting up a busines with me being the odd-lotter, I’m not against it if I can reap some of the profits and the public scorn of my figure is just the minimum required to sustain the business 🙂

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