Tag Archives: formula

New entrants in the commercial aircraft business

In a previous post, I mentioned the new entrants in the large commercial aircraft business (Bombardier CSeries, Embraer, Russian MS-21, Sukhoi SuperJet, Comac C919, Mitsubishi…). Now that the latest market forecasts both from Airbus (Global Market Forecast) and Boeing (Current Market Outlook) are available, I wanted to briefly note how they are treating the segment that most of these entrants would enter: single aisle jet aircraft.

For example, Boeing in this year’s CMO already splits the single aisle between 90-175 passengers (where new entrants would fall into) and over 175 passengers (still the safe harbor?). In previous studies Boeing didn’t offer such sub-segmentation. On the other hand, Airbus hasn’t published yet such differentiation.

It is even more interesting to compare last year’s GMF and CMO with this year’s ones.

  • Airbus saw a demand for 16,977 single aisle aircraft in 2009 while in 2010 sees a demand for 17,870.
  • Boeing saw a demand for 19,460 single aisle aircraft in 2009 while in 2010 sees a demand for 21,150.

In other words Airbus has increased the single aisle market forecast in 893 aircraft, while Boeing has increased it in 1,690 aircraft… Both have made the forecasted pie bigger before it will have to be shared.

On average, they see ~1,300 more single aisle aircraft than what they saw last year… In the case that these extra aircraft was room made for new entrants, that would leave the new entrants a market share of 6.7% of the single aisle market… not much.

However, those entrants are not yet delivering in that segment and most of their deliveries would come at the second half of the 20-year period. By 2029, it could well be possible that their combined market share is around 10%… still not a big share, but already ~7bn$ yearly business (in 2010 dollars); a ~4.4bn$ after discounts, an amount the size of Embraer revenues (the 3rd company in commercial aviation, reason enough for them to enter the segment).

Boeing even concedes that of the 21,150 single aisle aircraft, 86% of them will be between 90-175 passengers, precisely the market sub-segment that will be ferociously fought.

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Filed under Aerospace & Defence

Value investor: Joel Greenblatt

Last week, I watched an online interview by Steve Forbes to Joel Greenblatt, a value investor, author of the book: “The Little Book That Beats the Market”.

I read this book about two or three years ago and I remember it as a very enjoyable read (just about 150-200 pages). He proposes a formula to automate the stock picking process that would result from applying value investing principles by a person that doesn’t want to get too much involved.

During much of the interview he discusses how they have tested the formula, how it beat the market in this and that time, etc…

Summarizing, he admits that he based the formula in:

  • From Benjamin Graham: buying cheap.
  • From Warren Buffet: not only buying cheap, but buying a good company.
  • Last but not least: you need long periods of time, thus, patience.

This last requirement is what most speculators (vs. investors) lack of.

If you are interested in the formula, you may use it for free in his website.

Nevertheless, if I were you I wouldn’t stop there, but read “The Intelligent Investor” (especially chapters 8, 14 & 20)… the sooner, the better.

To my friends: if you are interested in Greenblatt’s book, I also got it, if you want to borrow it…

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Filed under Books, Investing