Monthly Archives: December 2017

Summary of (my) 2017

Time to look back and reflect how the year which is about to end developed. Brief recap of my 2017. (1)

The main event of the year: On July 17th, we signed the contract for the purchase of our house, as Andrea quickly and aptly named it: la maison bleu!

IMG_20170723_173740491

That was by far our main objective for the year, and was achieved rather quickly thanks to the thorough research of the market by Luca, who quickly spotted the opportunity.

Having said that: the other personal objectives for 2017 have been moderately accomplished to different extents. Now, let’s review the year in more detail.

Reading. We purchased at the turn of the year a good pack books in order to build up our library and reading waiting list. This year I kept up with the reading pace, having read 25 books, over 8100 pages or just above 22 pages per day. This permitted me to tackle some classics which I had wanted to read for some time such as the “Iliad”, the “Odyssey”, “Dracula” or “Les Misérables“. For the complete list of books, see a post I wrote about my 2017 reading list with a brief description of each book plus links to more thorough summaries which I wrote in the blog for some of them.

Avgeek. Reflecting for this post, I realize that this year I have unintentionally reduced the amount of aviation-related activities: we visited again the Cite de l’Espace in Toulouse (for Airbus September event) and I only read one aerospace book (“The Right Stuff”).  I clearly need to make up for this in the coming 2018.

Flying. After obtaining the licence at the end of 2015, in this 2017 I had to ensure that I met the minimum requirements to renew it before it expired, which I did in October, thus we have two more years to enjoy the pleasure of flying. I did not reach the objective of flying of 30 hours, but still managed to flew above 20 flight hours (20.7), including 25 take-offs and landings, and we made a few flight excursions: notably a second flight to San Sebastian, in which we hope it’s going to become a tradition, “the July flight to Biscay”(we technically flew down to Biscay, though landed in Fuenterrabia), another excursion over the snow-covered Pyrenees, one to La Escala Rosas, Creus cape, or a couple of them chasing and spotting aeronautical light houses from the old days of l’Aeropostale (see the flight excursions section of the blog here). Ah, I almost forgot to mention it: this year, after an 18-month self-imposed ban to improve navigation skills, we started navigating using GPS. It makes a difference, though I’ll continue to fly old-style.

San Juan de Gaztelugatxe_3

FH_2017

If I recall it well, this year  only Luismi had his baptism regarding flying with me at the controls. I flew as well with Luca, Andrea and David a few times, and with Asier, my brother Jaime and my mother. Believe me, there are very few more enjoyable things than flying with friends. I am sure that in 2018 that will be the case with some more.

Collage_flying_2017

Within this flying  paragraph I could not fail to mention that the A330neo, the Airbus project in which I have been working since mid 2015 flew for the first time in October 19th. Since them a second flight test aircraft also joined the flight test campaign, and together have flown well over 30 flights (search them in flight radar by their call signs: F-WTTN and F-WTTE).

A330neo_FF

Blogging. Family life, intensive reading and the buying of the house were the main culprits for having drastically dropped the production for this blog… not the lack of ideas, books or events to write about. I only managed to write 13 blog posts in 2017 Definitely, I will be a bit more productive on this front in 2018.

The blog received just above 40,000 visits in 2017 (less than in 2016) and above 328,000 since I started it in 2010.

Travelling. This year we, the family together, or I alone, visited Sevilla, Argentina (Perito Moreno, route 40, los 7 lagos, Buenos Aires), Bilbao, Saint Bertrand de Comminges, Saint Cirq Lapopie, Rocamadour, Lisboa, the Netherlands, Gargilesse-Dampierre, Orleans, Waterloo, Chenonceau, La Rochelle, San Sebastian. Many of these places have meant repeat visits, but they are lovely and we’ll continue to go there. On the other hand, this year I almost didn’t have to travel due to the job: just a single trip to Madrid.

Collage_familia_Argentina_2017

Sports – Running. For yet another year, practicing sports has meant mainly running. However, in 2017 I have run just above 1,260 kilometres, well below the 2,000 km target that I set to myself at the beginning of the year. Many issues contributed to that, mainly illnesses and trips (skiing stage and Argentina). Nevertheless, I competed in some 12 races (versus 10 in 2016) including: 2 marathons (Sevilla (where I managed a second best time in the distance) and Lisboa), a half marathon, three trails (Ronde des Foies Gras (25 km), Trail du Cassoulet (32 km) and Trail du Pastel (22 km)) and a few 10k races.

2017_weekly_mileage

Following a mantra I keep to letter, “the running shoes, always in the suitcase”, the year 2017 caught me running in: Sevilla, El Calafate, Getxo,  Lisboa and Wijchen, plus the tens of times I trained in Toulouse, Colomiers, Blagnac and now Fonsorbes.

Collage_running_2017

Apart from running, I played football one single day and for the first time went on a all-family skiing week in the Alps (Vars). That was a lovely experience, with courses for Luca and me, and Andrea ! That was cute, seeing Andrea sliding at 3 years old. No need to say, that in this 2018 again, we will repeat the experience.

Collage_familia_Vars_2017

Other reasons for joy in 2017 have been:

  • My family: my sister completed an internship at NATO in Norfolk (USA) and now is back in Denmark.  My brother continues to enjoy his time in Seville with A400M deliveries. My father is enjoying is retirement busy with university, conferences, trips and other events. My mother continues with her massages business, stayed with us for weeks in the summer and enjoys travelling, reading, etc.
  • Some more friends got married: Juan and Lara.
  • And we welcome some newborns from family and friends: Boris, Carlos, Mateo…

Now it’s time to rest, celebrate and soon to plan how we want the 2018 to turn out. It will include the certification and first delivery of the A330neo (which will mean I’ll be closer to change to another job), another all-family skiing week in the Alps, a marathon in Vienna, lots of flying and running, some books to read, museums to see, trips and excursions to enjoy… For now, I will close 2017 celebrating my sister’s birthday (in the distance), running the San Silvestre Vallecana in Madrid with several friends and enjoying a last dinner with the family.

I wish you the best for 2018, enjoy it!

Pyrenees

(1) You can see here my 20102011, 2012 , 2013 , 2014, 2015 and 2016 recaps.

Advertisements

Leave a comment

Filed under Personal development & HR

My 2017 reading list

In this post I wanted to share the list of books I read along the year (1) with a small comment for each one and links to some Twitter threads where I shared some passages that caught my attention while reading the book. I have also included a small rating from one to three “+” depending on how much do I recommend its reading:

Portadas_2017.png

  1. Iliad” (by Homer) (+++): arguably the first book of Western civilization, I took on reading after having discussed about it and the Odyssey with a friend during 2016 summer holidays. The Iliad is widely seen as the more epic of the book of the two. I would say it is harsher. It is centered in the battle of Troy, fought around the XII century BC between a coalition of Greek armies led by Agamemnon king of Mycenae and Troy, led by Hector. The war features warriors the size of Achilles, Odysseus, Ajax, Menelaus… the origin of the war is the kidnapping of Helen, wife of Menelaus, by Paris, who takes her to Troy, against which the Greek armies fight in order to bring her back. The description of the fights does not spare any bloody detail, reaches at times the point of recreation in the violence and brutality of the characters. Another interesting point to note are the Homeric epithets; every single time the name of character is referred to a series of epithets will be quoted to describe him, such  as “swift-footed” Achilles.
  2. The dragons of Eden” (by Carl Sagan) (++): I was not yet born when the series Cosmos was released and became so popular in 1980, but I had read often about the character and the importance of Sagan as a outreach scientist. I bought this book, on the evolution of human intelligence, about a decade ago and took on it this year after having read “Exploradores: La historia del yacimiento de Atapuerca” by one of the lead researchers of Atapuerca (José María Bermúdez de Castro) last year. The book is read very easily and draws from different disciplines in order to provide examples, outcomes from scientific studies and his vision on evolution. [I leave here a Twitter thread with some passages that caught my attention while reading the book]
  3. Las cuentas y los cuentos de la independencia” (by J. Borrell and J. Llorach) (+++): this short book by the economists Joan Llorach and Josep Borrell (who among other posts was the Spanish minister of Public Works and Transport in the 1990s) originated from an article they wrote for a news paper refuting some of the populist arguments often used by separatist leaders in Catalonia (note: both writers are Catalan themselves). The main point of the book goes around the different calculations methods for what is called the fiscal balance, pointing to the distortions played by separatists. Before that point is tackled many other mantras are dismantled, such as the purported calculations of fiscal balances in Germany and the limits to them often cited by separatists, for which the authors of the book made a thorough research including cross checking with German economics professors and the German embassy just to find out that the whole story is based on nothing, pure invention, hence the title of the book (“las cuentas y los cuentos“, as in the “the calculations and the stories”). [Twitter thread]
  4. The Right Stuff” (by Tom Wolfe) (+++): released in 1979 and awarded the US National Book Award for Nonfiction, this book portrays the lives, the selection process, the training and mission of the Mercury Seven. The book was later adapted to the cinema in a movie by the same title. The movie and the book are classic of aerospace literature and cinema. The images of the mercury seven in their silver space suits or their orange fighter pilot suits are part of popular culture. The book goes into the struggles and ego disputes among the different astronauts and between them and Air Force test pilots, including Chuck Yeager whose auto biography I had read in 2016, thus letting me see that episode from both sides. A definite must read. [Twitter thread]
  5. Odyssey” (by Homer) (+++): this book is partly the continuation of the Iliad, as in it Homer describes the return trip of Odysseus from Troy to Ithaca, his kingdom, where is wife Penelope and son Telemachus suffer for years the absence of the king. This book is more of an adventure book than the Iliad, and some of the passages are quite known such as those of the cyclops or the sirens. [Twitter thread]
  6. The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy” (by Douglas Adams) (+): the novel is part of a comedy science fiction series released in 1979, originated from radio broadcasts and later taken to TV. I read it as had seen it recommended by Elon Musk a couple of times. The book has some hilarious points and fine criticisms, but other than that I thought it was quite overrated. [Twitter thread]
  7. Oresteia (Agamemnon, The Libation Bearers (Choephoroi), The Eumenides)” (by Aeschylus) (+): Aeschylus is seen as the father of tragedy. The Oresteia is a trilogy first represented at a festival in 458 BC. The play plots several tragic events: the murder of Agamemnon by Clytaemnestra, the murder of Clytaemnestra by Orestes, the trial of Orestes, the end of the curse on the House of Atreus and pacification of the Erinyes. [Twitter thread]
  8. La Bete humaine” (by Emile Zola) (++): published in 1890, this novel by Zola caused a great impact in the French society by its brutality: murder, suicides, abuses… the novel is centered around the rail company and the line Paris – Le Havre, and the plot relates the lives of the president, some workers and their relatives.  [Twitter thread]
  9. 1984” (by George Orwell) (++): published in 1949, the influence of this novel cannot be overstated. It coined terms and introduced figures widely used today such as Big Brother, Newspeak, Thought Police, thoughtcrime… even if I found some passages of the book rather tedious, it is a must read, a wake up call, a reminder of always having to be alert in the defence of individual rights. [Twitter thread]
  10. Puro Fútbol” (by Roberto Fontanarrosa) (++): In the 90s I used to read some newspaper articles of former football player and coach Jorge Valdano, in some of them he would refer to stories from the writer Fontanarrosa. Since then, I had heard about those stories some other times. In April we visited Argentina and we went to a bookshop to enjoy going through book stands, when I found his name in bookshelf I picked one of his books to read a few of his stories. The book is a compilation short stories of Argentinean football. They are fictional stories which feature amateur players and aficionados, either playing football, remembering memorable matches or attending events. I especially liked its fresh and down to earth language, which very easy transmit that for some people football is much more than sport. [Twitter thread]
  11. El Tango” (by Jorge Luis Borges) (+++): during a trip to Argentina I bought 3 books of Borges to approach the author. This was the first one I read. Rather than a book written by him, it is the transcription written in 2016 of a series of lectures Borges gave in 1965 around Tango, its origins, meaning, etc. I loved the book, as it gave me some insight into Argentinean life at the beginning of the XX century, the dance itself, its evolution from a dance of locals of dubious reputation to a dance more than socially accepted. Living in Toulouse, I loved to learn that in fact Carlos Gardel might have been a Frenchman by the name Charles Gardés born in the same neighborhood of Saint Cyprien (Toulouse) where I used to live when I came to France. [Twitter thread]
  12. Ficciones” (by Jorge Luis Borges) (+): published in 1944, the book is a compilation of about 20 short stories. With them Borges plays with different concepts, styles and themes. I saw that it has a great reception by critics, I do not share it.
  13. Dracula” (by Bram Stoker) (++): the count of Dracula and vampires are part of our popular culture. There are countless films, books, comics, plays, that include such characters. This book, published in 1897, set a framework for that popular culture: the prominent teeth, the biting and sucking of blood, the coming out at night, the counter measures, etc. The story is made of a series of letters, entries into the diaries of some of the characters and press articles. I liked the originality of such approach, although in my view it lacked some rhythm at some points. [Twitter thread]
  14. Waiting for Godot” (by Samuel Beckett) (+): I got some books from 1969 Literature Nobel prize winner, the Irish Samuel Beckett, as part of my Irish literature immersion following my 2016 trip to the island. Waiting for Godot is theater play that portrays two characters, Vladimir and Estragon, who wait for a third one, Godot, who never arrives. Meanwhile they engage in a series of discussions, absurd at times, comical at others, or even tedious. I have read reviews of the play stating that it is one the most significant play in English language of the XX century. I found it rather absurd and wouldn’t recommend it, other than for the humorous note of reading once and again the gag “We can’t / Why not? / We’re waiting for Godot”. [Twitter thread]
  15. The travels of Gulliver…”  (by Jonathan Swift) (+++): during a trip to Ireland in 2016, I found out that Jonathan Swift had been about everything in Ireland, I thus decided to take on this classic book, out of which some stories we all have heard of at some point or another, such as the trip to Lilliput. Written in 1726, the book covers several trips of Gulliver, to nations previously unknown to him, where he discovers different civilizations (Lilliputians, giants, a civilization on a flying island) with their own ways of thinking. These travels offer the author situations to explain different points of view from menial subjects to more profound ones, such as fraud, the importance of rewarding good behavior, the importance of attitude over skills, astronomy, the influence of lawyers, taxes… up to a rather harsh criticism on human kind in comparison to the honesty of horses. A classic definitely worth reading. [Twitter thread]
  16. The Price of Inequality” (by Joseph E. Stiglitz) (+++): I had bought this book from the 2001 Nobel prize in economics to my father a couple of years ago. Once he finished it, I grabbed this boomerang gift so I could read it too. The book is a review of income inequality in the USA, the policies that have been taken in the last decades and that have contributed to the increasing of that inequality and its consequences. Criticism of austerity, defence of higher taxes, denouncing the double standards, the fine print of trade agreements, the need of labor unions, globalization and rent seeking are some of the topics discussed in the book. [Twitter thread]
  17. Out of Africa” (Karen Blixen) (++): I visited my sister in Denmark in the summer of 2016 and it was in that trip that I got acquainted with Karen Blixen (not having yet seen the movie based on the book). I bought the book and put it on the reading list. Written in 1937, the book is a passionate story of a farm life in Africa, lovely at times, with some descriptions of landscapes, relationships, the sounds of nature, the animals in the safaris, the flights in the Moth of her friend Denys…, that brings you back to a time and a world that most probably, for good and bad, we will never see again. A melancholic read at times, especially at the end, when the author describes when she was already closing her experience in Kenya. [Twitter thread]
  18. Ajax“, “The Trachiniae“, “Antigone“, “Oedipus Rex” (by Sophocles) (++): Sophocles was one of the great tragedians in ancient Greece, following Aeschylus, he lived in the 5th century BC. The book I read is a compilation of the four plays mentioned above. The plays treat the death of Ajax, of Heracles, of Antigone and the self-blinding of Oedipus, this last one considered to be the masterpiece of Greek tragedy. [Twitter thread]
  19. La tregua” (by Mario Benedetti) (++): written in 1959, this novel by the Uruguayan writer, long time based in Buenos Aires, tells the story of the widower Martín Santomé who falls in love with a much younger female work colleague just prior to his retirement. The book is written in the form of entries into the diary of Martin. [Twitter thread]
  20. El libro de arena” (by Jorge Luis Borges) (+): this book, published in 1975, is a compilation of 13 short stories. Together with “Ficciones“, which I had read a few months before (above), it is considered one of the masterpieces of Borges. Other than some pills of sharp criticism on fairmindedness, self described liberal free thinkers, disdain for science, culture and history, I did not like much this book either. [Twitter thread]
  21. Les Misérables” (by Victor Hugo) (+++): it took over 15 years to Victor Hugo to write Les Misérables, a 1,900-page (in the French version) historical novel considered one of the greatest novels of the 19th century if not of all time. Hugo centers the story around Jean Valjean, who was initially convicted for stealing bread but after a series of escape attempts he ends up serving 19 years. Valjean will be transformed into a benefactor who is always chased by his past and who follows an internal struggle between justice and doing good. Valjean will take as personal mission to save Cosette, a young orphan girl. The book includes some other central characters such as Fantine, Eponine, Marius, Gavroche or Javert, and Hugo will use them and the historical events hapenning at the time around which the novel is staged (1820s and 30s) to discuss about several subjects such as monarchy, social justice, criminal justice, romance, family, French politics…  It took me about 10 weeks and around 70 hours to read it, the longest book I have read so far, but definitely worth it, especially the last about 300 pages. [Twitter thread]
  22. L’Écoles des femmes” (by Molière) (+++): this play, published in 1662, portrays a comedy around Arnolphe, Horace and Agnès, where the first has been isolating and “educating” Agnès to marry her and Horace is her lover. Through candid and innocent dialogues between Horace and Arnolphe and Agnès and Arnolphe, the latter will become aware of the affair going on and the failure of his strategy. A great comedy and criticism of the society of his time in its view of women rights. [Twitter thread]
  23. Social Choice and Individual Values” (by Kenneth J. Arrow) (+): one of the 1972 Economics Nobel prize winner, Kenneth Arrow passed away in February 2017. At that point I thought of reading this book, a 100-page essay in which he derives his “General Possibility Theorem”, known as Arrow’s impossibility theorem or voting paradox: “If there are at least three alternatives which the members of the society are free to order in any way, then every social welfare function (…) must be either imposed or dictatorial”. The exposition of his social choice theory, the implications of the theorem and the particular cases when some conditions are quite interesting. However, the book is a plagued with demonstrations with which he arrives to his theorem; a tough read if not on student mode. [Twitter thread]
  24. Le Tartuffe ou L’imposteur” (by Molière) (+++): the first version of this play appeared in 1664, and after some struggles with censorship it reappeared in its final version in 1669. In this comedy, Molière criticizes the hypocrisy and trickery often hidden behind a pious appearance. In the plot, Tartuffe is an impostor that passes by a fervor devotee who uses religion to trick Orgon, to the point of getting his state and at the brink of getting his wife. A great pointed comedy. [Twitter thread]
  25. L’Avare” (by Molière) (+++): written in 1668, in this great comedy the author takes on greed and its influence on love between parents and children, jealousy, marriage arrangements based on dowries…  [Twitter thread]

During this year again, I have been able to read at a higher pace than years ago, before I adopted a more rigorous approach following these two tips:

  • a blog post from Farnam Street blog “Just Twenty-Five Pages a Day“, which was published well after I had adopted such an approach to reading but captures it very well,
  • the Wikipedia article about the Pomodoro Technique, which enables you to efficiently use the last hours of the day.

I wish you all very interesting reads in 2018!

(1) You can find here: my 2012 reading list201320142015 and 2016 ones.

2 Comments

Filed under Books

Our NGOs for 2017 are…

“If you’re in the luckiest one per cent of humanity, you owe it to the rest of humanity to think about the other 99 per cent.” Warren Buffett

Even if this time it has come rather late, if there is a blog post that I am looking forward to write each year is this one. Few things can give you more pleasure than helping others (1). And in doing so I try to be as public and noisy as I can,  hoping that I may serve the causes we contribute to also from the awareness point of view.

Let’s go and see the different causes we decided to support in this 2017 (2):

Why am I “noisy” or public about these donations?

I know that between 100 and 200 of you will read this blog post. I bet with any of you that at least 50% of you will be compelled to take a look at some of these organisations above, 10% of you will consider making a donation. Do you dare thinking that 1% of you won’t actually make such donation?

I learnt about Kiva from Bruno back in 2009. Started contributing to Médecins Sans Frontières in 2010 after a conversation with Juan a couple of years before. I learnt from Slavery International at a temporary exhibit at the Museum of London. I started contributing to the sustaining of the Wikipedia after a tweet from Amalia. Discovered the Fundacion Hombres Nuevos thanks to my father’s 6-month volunteering in Bolivia. Learnt of Gapminder in TED. I started donating myself happiness with Fundacion Khanimambo after Nacho and Alberto. I started supporting to cancer research in part as a way to honour late friends and family members and encourage work colleagues going through therapy. I received the #IceBucketChallenge from Alvaro and Teresa. Avocats sans Frontieres and Movement du Nid were are ideas from Luca, the latest addition to the list being SOS-Racisme. After most of the causes there has been someone who let me discover them.

If not one of those, I am sure that you will be able to find a cause, a NGO which resonates with you. Do yourself a favour and contribute to it. It can be just 25$, the cost of diner at a restaurant. You’ll feel much better.

“No one has ever become poor by giving.” Anne Frank, diary of Anne Frank


(1) See this article from the World Economic Forum “Why being generous is good for your health“.

(2) You may check out similar posts I wrote about our contributions to NGOs in 2016201520142013 and 2012.

Leave a comment

Filed under Helping others

Mi pronóstico de las elecciones autonómicas en Cataluña del 21 diciembre 2017

Con la ocasión de las elecciones autonómicas en Cataluña el próximo jueves 21 de diciembre, quería aprovechar para hacer un pronóstico de las mismas como ejercicio de aprendizaje (1).

Antes de nada, al grano, éste es mi pronóstico:

Pronostico_21D

Pronóstico de las elecciones autonómicas en Cataluña del 21 diciembre 2017.

Una vez visto el resultado, explico cómo he llegado a él. No he utilizado ninguna encuesta, ni promedio u otro algoritmo de encuestas, tampoco he usado datos del CIS; me he basado en repasar los resultados de las últimas elecciones.

Empecé recopilando los resultados de las últimas tres elecciones autonómicas en Cataluña de 2010, 2012 y 2015 por provincias. En ellas intenté ver cómo iban evolucionando unos partidos por provincia en el tiempo y en relación a la participación, comparando “bloques”.

Después, hice el mismo ejercicio con las últimas tres elecciones generales en España (2011, 2015 y 2016) cogiendo los resultados de las provincias de Cataluña. Con ellos hice las mismas comparaciones, tendencias.

Hay muchos detalles que hacen difíciles tales comparaciones: la no participación de CUP en elecciones generales, la coalición JxSí, la aparición de CeC-Podem (desaparición de ICV), el crecimiento de Ciutadans (desaparición de UPyD, aunque ya casi insignificante desde 2010), la separación de CiU (y posterior desaparición de Unió)… Aun así, se puede jugar con los datos.

Por último, aunque de poca fiabilidad también comparé los resultados publicados de los eventos festivos del 9-N de 2014 y el 1-O de 2017. Eso puede servir de alguna manera para ver un posible techo del “bloque” soberanista.

Con todo ello, comencé el ejercicio de predicción, asignando partido a partido y provincia a provincia un número absoluto de votantes. Como punto de partida fijé una participación del 81%. He leído que se espera una participación mayor. Yo soy algo escéptico. En las tres últimas elecciones autonómicas la participación fue de 59.95%, 69.56% y 77.44%, siempre en momentos históricos (ara sí). De todos modos, una vez terminado el ejercicio hice un par de variaciones para ver la sensibilidad esencialmente de Ciutadans ante participaciones que alcancen el 85% o el 90%. A mí me sale que tiene poca sensibilidad (me sale que podría subir un par de escaños).

Con un censo de poco más de 5.3 millones de electores, con ese 81% de participación tenía para repartir algo más de 4.3 millones de votos entre 28 casillas (7 partidos en 4 provincias) en miles de votos aquí y allá. El reparto proporcional de votos por provincias se ha mantenido bastante estable en las últimas tres elecciones autonómicas: ~74.9% de los votos en Barcelona, 9.4% en Gerona, 5.7% en Lérida y 10% en Tarragona.  Una vez asignados los votos a repartir en cada provincia fui asignando los votos a partidos según las reglas, regresiones a la media e intuiciones del ejercicio comparativo inicial.

Una vez repartidos los votos, el siguiente paso es distribuir los escaños del parlamento regional (85 para la provincia de Barcelona, 17 Gerona, 15 Lérida y 18 Tarragona). Ese ejercicio es automático siguiendo el sistema D’Hondt, quedándome el siguiente reparto:

Pronostico_21D_tabla

Pronóstico detallado.

Por último, dejo aquí los votos globales que me han resultado por partido:

  • CUP: 299.000 votos.
  • ERC: 1.055.000 votos.
  • JxCat: 648.000 votos.
  • CeC-Podem: 373.000 votos.
  • PSC: 661.000 votos.
  • Ciutadans: 791.000 votos.
  • PP: 372.000 votos.

Con esos números, el “bloque soberanista” obtendría poco más de 2 millones de votos, cerca de 50 mil más que el 27S, algo menos que el 1-O. El “bloque constitucionalista” poco más de 1.8 millones de votos.

Con los números del pronóstico, el “bloque soberanista” obtendría de nuevo mayoría absoluta si CUP, ERC y JxCat consiguen de nuevo un acuerdo de gobierno. Ante tal escenario, imagino que una de las protagonistas de la noche electoral sería la ley electoral. Los escaños más “baratos” los obtendrían ERC y JxCat (27 y 28 mil votos por escaño), los más “caros”, CeC-Podem (hasta 41 mil votos por escaño). Ciutadans estaría en la media.

La semana que viene veremos…

(1) Ya en 2015 y 2016, antes de las elecciones generales en España hice sendos pronósticos que, aunque con distinto acierto, me sirvieron de gran aprendizaje.

1 Comment

Filed under Miscellanea