Quick post with the updated figures and graphic of orders, cancellations, deliveries and backlog of the 787 programme at the end of 2018.
For the fifth consecutive year above a hundred 787 airplanes have been delivered in 2018, 145 deliveries, a new industry record for a commercial wide-body aircraft. At that pace, the backlog is being consumed quickly, especially since in the last years the wide-body market has been rather sluggish.
In the last 5 years, 487 gross orders for 787s were placed, offset by 114 cancellations (about 20%) for a total of 373 net orders, 109 of them in 2018, its best selling year since 2013. Book-to-bill ratio was 0.75 in 2018, less than a desired > 1, but better than in the previous years.
Since 2011, there have been 781 cumulative deliveries (or in-service aircraft), that is 56% of the standing 1,403 net orders. Reversely, there is a backlog (1) of 622 aircraft to be delivered, 44% of the orders received so far, or about 4.3 years of production at this rate.
(1) Since Q1 2018 Boeing has adopted a new revenue Recognition Accounting Standard (ASC 606) which imposes additional criteria for the backlog accounting beyond the existence of a firm contract to deliver. For the purpose of this post, I have kept the previous criteria, knowing that the difference between 787 “unfilled orders” (622) and “backlog” (604) are 18 aircraft.
Quick post with the updated figures and graphic of orders, cancellations, deliveries and backlog of the 787 programme at the end of 2017.
For the fourth consecutive year above 100 787 airplanes have been delivered in 2017, 136 deliveries, the third year in a row with above or 135 deliveries. At that pace, the backlog is being consumed quickly, especially since in the last years the wide-body market has been rather sluggish.
In the last 4 years, 351 orders for 787s were placed, offset by 87 cancellations (about 25%) for a total of 264 net orders, 94 of them in 2017, its best selling year since 2013. Book-to-bill ratio was 0.69 in 2017, less than a desired > 1, but better than in the previous years.
Since 2011, there have been 636 cumulative deliveries, that is 49% of the standing 1,294 net orders. Reversely, there is backlog of 658 aircraft to be delivered, 51% of the orders received so far.
787 orders, cancellations, deliveries and backlog through 2017.
Quick post with the updated figures and graphic of orders, cancellations, deliveries and backlog of the 787 programme at the end of 2015.
There were no major operational hick-ups in 2015, but commercially it saw 28 cancellations for 99 gross orders, thus, 71 net orders. This, together with the increased ramp up which enabled 135 deliveries, make that the book to bill of the programme stood at 0.53, far from a desired >1. Therefore, the backlog at year-end continued to decrease down to 779 aircraft (1).
An image is worth a thousands words:
787 orders, cancellations, deliveries and backlog through 2015.
(1) That level is lower than 2007 year-end backlog. The highest at previous year-ends was 916 in 2013.
The year 2014 seems to have been another complex for the Boeing 787 program.
There were no major operational hick-ups such as the 2013 grounding of the fleet due to the lithium-ion batteries heat runaway issues, but commercially just 65 new orders were received (main ones from Air Europa and ANA) with up to 24 cancellations. Production ramped up to 112 deliveries (almost double than 2013’s 63). This increase is positive in relation to revenue recognition and cash inflow, however the cost per unit enjoyed a lower improvement than expected. As a result of previous figures, the so-called book-to-bill on the program was below 0.6, making the backlog to shrink slightly (leaving it practically at the same level since 2007).
An image is worth a thousands words:
787 orders, cancellations, deliveries and backlog through 2014.
At first sight the year 2013 may seem to have been an annus horribilis for the Boeing 787 program with the months-long grounding of the fleet due to the lithium-ion batteries heat runaway issue, the fires that some of the aircraft in the operating fleet suffered, etc. On the other hand, after 4 years of sales impasse (from 2009 to 2012, inclusive), in which the cumulative net orders of those 4 years stood at a negative 62 aircraft cancelled, in 2013 Boeing recorded 183 new orders against just a single cancellation. Thus, 182 net orders. That is the 3rd best year in sales since the program was launched in 2004.
Last year, I wrote a post wondering whether the grounding of the fleet could be translated into some cancellations. Well, it didn’t so far. Quite the contrary, it got some big contracts from American Airlines, Singapore Airlines, Etihad, British Airways and GECAS.
In last year’s post I included a graphic that I have updated for this post, in order to reflect this recovery and have in one snapshot a view of the orders, cancellations, (net orders), deliveries and backlog.
787 orders, cancellations, deliveries and backlog through 2013.
I read yesterday the first article about delays in 787 deliveries in 2013 due to the grounding of the fleet. With the investigation of the batteries issue taking already a month, it was evident that these delays were going to happen.
I have not yet read anything in the specialized or business press about cancellations. However, taking into account that when the 787 program started announcing 3-month delays from Q3 2007, cancellations started to pile, I guess that this time it will not be very different.
I checked the information of orders and cancellations from Boeing website.
Since 2004, Boeing has received a total of 1,112 787 orders. Out of these, 222 orders were later on cancelled; mostly between 2008 and 2012. Now there are still 890 firm orders (with about 50 of those aircraft already delivered). As a summary, find the graphic below:
Boeing 787 orders and cancellations