Author Archives: Javier Irastorza

December 18, 2010 · 11:00 am

Commercial aircraft market size after discounts (update)

In an older post I already made an analysis of the aircraft discounts related to the published list prices (by the way, Boeing just raised its list prices 5.2% a couple of days ago). In that case, I used the revenues and deliveries of Boeing in the previous 3 years (38% discount was the result!).

Using that information, now that the latest market forecasts both from Airbus (Global Market Forecast) and Boeing (Current Market Outlook) are available, we can say that the real market size in the next 20 years will be in the order of 2,100bn$ (average of both forecasts in 2010 dollars).

Flow of airplanes

Another very interesting feature that Airbus published in last year’s GMF (it is not yet in this year’s publication) and Boeing used for this year’s CMO is a graphic showing the dynamics of aircraft. In it you may understand how from today’s fleet, adding new deliveries, retiring old aircraft, converting some from passenger to freight transport they arrive to the forecasted fleet in 2029.

I include below both graphics.

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December 17, 2010 · 11:00 am

Airbus vs. Boeing, comparison of market forecasts

Airbus announced on Monday its latest Global Market Forecast (PDF, 4.6MB) for the 20-year period 2010-2029. Media has already highlighted the main points: ~26,000 new aircraft will be delivered with a market value of ~3,200bn$.

Some months ago, Boeing published its equivalent study, the Current Market Outlook (PDF, 8.2MB) for the same period.

It is interesting to compare the two of them. In that way we can see how each other treat competitors’ products (mainly A380) and how they try to shape the market and send messages to it (point-to-point & hub-spoke).

However, it is not easy to compare the studies as they use slightly different segmentations, disclose in different ways the value of aircraft for the segments (list prices) and is not always clear how to discount freighter aircraft from global figures. I dig for some time into those numbers and arrived to the following table:

Comparison of Airbus GMF and Boeing CMO 2010-2029.

Some comments on the comparison:

  • Boeing sees demand for 13% more aircraft with a 10% more value.
  • However, this higher demand is not applicable to all segments: Boeing sees ~60% less A380s or equivalent being delivered over the next 20 years, while 18% more single aisle (A320s) and 12% more twin aisle (A330/A350s).
  • Boeing plays down A380 potential, but sees a very similar number of RPKs (“revenue passenger kilometer”), that is, the number of paying passenger by the distance they are transported. Airbus forecasts for 2029 12.03 RPKs while Boeing forecasts 12.60 (in trillion).
  • The difference of less than 5% in RPKs means that out of the 13% difference in aircraft deliveries over 8% comes from the different business model each company is trying to push.
  • Finally, we can see that Boeing uses again higher average prices for smaller aircraft and a lower reference price for A380s.

Enjoy the two documents, differences apart, they gave a very good piece of information and insight about the market.

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December 16, 2010 · 11:00 am

Archaeologists

There is no doubt that archaeologists have done and continue to do a great and exhaustive work in Egypt… (yes, there is a “but” coming) But, while visiting several temples last week, I really got sick of seeing their signature in the middle of the statues, walls, hieroglyphics, etc…

Signatures from archaeologists ar various sites in Egypt.

Can you imagine that a conservator / restaurateur from the Louvre museum had just signed in the middle of La Gioconda while performing some work on the painting? Like: “L. Bernard, 1835” in the cheek or the forehead, where there is plenty of space.

I want to think that this was the norm in XIX and early XX century and that nowadays it is not happening, otherwise: archaeologists, please refrain from doing that!

As Luca put it: these were people who failed to understand their place in history. After all, to the general public Lecaros, Black, Hamdy Bey, Federici, Levinge, etc., are completely unknown names (luckily! imagine how many of their signatures and in what places would have been needed for them to be stars!).

Having said that… who knows, maybe around the year 5,464 someone visiting these places may find a plaque honouring these signatures, like the one that can be seen today in Saqqara outlining the first “graffiti” in history, yet another inscription from another archaeologist in the year 1,232 BC, Hadnakhte, who wrote, on the wall of an already then 1,500 years old building, the following: “on a pleasure trip west of Memphis”.

Hadnakhte's graffiti in the House of the South, Saqqara.

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December 15, 2010 · 11:00 am

The best (and the worst) of the first 100 posts

Today is a symbolic day for the blog: this is its 100th post.

I started the blog in February 2010 and about 15 posts ago I thought: “what could I write about for my 100th post?”.

A reflection: To be honest, after 100 posts I still haven’t got a clear idea of which post topics you, the readers, like more and which less. What do you think? In this post, I will just give you the list of the ten most read posts and the ten least read ones…

1. An aircraft worth its weight in gold?
2. FC Barcelona copying Real Madrid
3. A Kiva success story
4. Mi adiós a Ibercaja
5. Boeing forecast for A380
6. Most common letters in English and Spanish
7. TEDxMadrid 2010
8. Venture Capital & Crowdfunding
9. 3 wishes to Nosso Senhor do Bonfim
10. My flat-renting decision process

…

90. Giving feedback at Pixar
91. From climbing to merely walking
92. Sao Paulo from the top of Banespa building
93. How rain determines olive tree economics
94. Nothing like a good red wine…
95. Speech about Minifutbol
96. Three centuries of confusion
97. Opera with subtitles
98. Book review: Pirate Latitudes
99. Book review: La Hermandad de la Sabana Santa

Some stats from this period: over 5,700 visits (~18 per day), being the day I announced that I moved to Toulouse the most visited one.

Let’s see what I’ll write in the next 100 posts…

 

NOTE: the box in the right showing “Top Posts” shows the most read ones in the last week, not the all-time most read ones (the ones above).

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December 14, 2010 · 11:00 am

The first bloggers

I found while visiting some tombs in the Valley of the Kings and temples in Luxor that the Egyptian pharaohs were the first bloggers.

There are paintings older than the hieroglyphics from Egypt but, unless I am mistaken, we don’t know whether they just capture scenes of daily life/gods or relate to the story of a single individual (and in if that was the case, who is he?).

In the case of the pharaohs, they inscribed (or those working for them) in the walls and columns what had happened to the pharaoh in his life, apart from stories related to gods. Some months later or the next year they would come back and update it with the latest achievements (wars, victories, offers to different gods…).

Luckily, today we can just store our storyline (or whatever we may want to write about) in the internet and save ourselves the effort of gathering up to 134 columns as in the Great Hypostyle Hall in Karnak, Luxor (larger than St. Peter’s Basilica in Rome and St. Paul’s Cathedral in London together – some pictures below).

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December 12, 2010 · 12:00 pm

Nuestra Señora de Loreto

Alguna vez le he dicho a Luca o a algún amigo a modo ilustrativo “con unas alas suficientemente grandes y un motor suficientemente potente se podría hacer volar a tu casa, otra cosa es que fuese eficiente”.

El 10 de diciembre tuvo lugar la conmemoración de Nuestra Señora de Loreto, la patrona de la aviación. Hace unos años encontré algo de información sobre ella y el origen de este patronazgo, que rescato en este post para vuestro deleite, en español e inglés (distintas fuentes), ya que no tiene desperdicio.

Como podéis ver, ya en el siglo XIII unos ángeles probaron mi teoría del primer párrafo con la casa que la Sagrada Familia tenía en Nazaret.

“[…] una antigua tradición que arranca del siglo XIII, según la cual la casa de Nazaret que vio nacer y crecer a la Virgen, y en la que vivió la Sagrada Familia, fue trasladada por los ángeles, primero a Dalmacia (Croacia) y después a Loreto (Italia), en tiempos del Papa Celestino V.”

Siglos más tarde vinieron los motores, los hermanos Wright, los ingenieros, la aviación comercial… la mejora de la eficiencia.

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December 11, 2010 · 4:49 pm

Special assistance vs. free ride

This morning, at Cairo airport I found something I hadn’t seen since 2007 when I went to Moscow sometimes: passion for wheelchairs.

During the last week in Egypt, Luca and I have seen just 2 wheelchairs (in fact, she saw 2, I can only recall having seen one at Giza).

How many thousands of people we may have seen during this week? 1,000, 2,000, 10,000? No idea. But having been all day in the streets, museums, temples, etc., where there were crowds, I guess they were many. Let me use 2-3 thousands for simplification.

I know, this may be not a statistically relevant sample, but let me say there is a user of wheelchair per 1,000 inhabitants (there may be published stats on this out there; I didn’t check).

As you know, airline companies offer special assistance to get on board their aircraft. Yesterday, we found at the boarding gate 10 wheelchairs. We flew aboard a B777-200 with no more than 50-60% seats occupied, about 200-250 passengers. That is, 4-5% of passengers required special assistance in the form of a wheelchair.

As, I said, these are not statistically relevant samples, but these numbers bring to me some (provocative) thoughts:

  • At the airport we found 50 times more wheelchairs than in the outside world! That is what I call passion for them.
  • What is it so attractive in wheelchairs at airports? It’s a free ride (some body actually pushes it!), you get to avoid long queues and board first
  • Why don’t they all use wheelchair outside the airport? Nobody pushes it! The fact that streets and facilities are not adequately prepared might be a deterrent as well (just for people who can walk despite some difficulty).
  • It could happen that those flying are not the ones we found in touristic places and streets in Egypt… however, the factor of 50 is strikingly high to be explained only because of that, plus it would be strange for them to venture taking international flights and not wandering through the city.

Having said that, I’m totally in favour that this special assistance is provided because there will always be people who do need it. I wrote this post just out of surprise of seeing a queue of 10 wheelchairs, something I hadn’t seen in 3 years.

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December 5, 2010 · 12:00 pm

Home

By now, most of you are aware that I moved recently to Toulouse. Some of you may have read about the process of finding my new flat.

I live in the Rue du Cimetière Saint-Cyprien, close to the city centre. Going back and for to work takes about 20 minutes, there is traffic as they say here, but nothing compared to larger cities.

My street.

The flat is what they call a T3; this is a living room plus 2 bedrooms. The kitchen is way larger than my cooking skills will ever ask for. It has an open-air private parking lot…

… but really, what makes me call it home is this view:

Sweet home.

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December 3, 2010 · 9:00 pm

On top of my gift list

The other question I liked about this week’s Plinky email was:

“What’s at the top of your gift wish list right now?”

Normally I would almost always say “a trip, a holiday trip”. Since I have just moved to France, I came here 3 times in the last 3 weeks; I have been in Poland, Barcelona and The Netherlands in the last month as well… what do you think I would ask for?

Yes, yet another holiday trip: to refresh my mind, get a good pack of unforgettable moments, discover new places, etc… and the nice thing about this is: that I will get it! Right now a friend, my partner and I will go to Egypt for a week…

“À bientôt, Toulouse!”

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December 2, 2010 · 11:00 pm

What charities do you support?

I got an email today from a source-of-ideas-for-blogs service called Plinky. Today’s email was a summary of the ideas for the last week. I liked 2 of those ideas; I’ll answer them, one per post.

“What charities do you support, and why?”

The first thought I had is “two: Kiva and Doctors without Borders (MSF)”. Then I developed the thought further: “Why?” The explanation that was going to follow is already written into another post, but thinking again about it made me realize that I only support one charity: MSF, as Kiva is not strictly speaking a charity.

Kiva gives a financial service, loans, to entrepreneurs that wouldn’t get them from commercial banks. The same situation happens with us: how many banks would not grant us a loan to start a company in Spain at the moment? If we found an investor, we would deem his action as an investment, a sound investment, not a charity act.

The charity act when lending money through Kiva is in fact the little donation you may choose to give to Kiva itself (to cover their operating costs) and the giving away the opportunity of earning some interest on that money… not much:

  • At the moment I put in Kiva ~250$ a year,
  • The interest I could get out of this would be ~4$ a year (if well invested may be 20$),
  • The 250$ may pay for about 12 loans of 25$ (assuming some of them will be repaid within that year and the money is re-loaned) and I generally give a 5% donation to Kiva on each loan… that is another 15$…

So out of these two concepts I give only 20$ to charities!

(Luckily I give some more to MSF… why? You can guess it)

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