Tag Archives: Randy Tinseth

Last week, on the first day of Farnborough air show, Boeing Commercial published its yearly update of the Current Market Outlook (CMO) for the next 20 years of commercial aircraft market (2016-2035).

I have just compared the figures for passenger aircraft of the last two years’ CMOs:

CMO 2016 vs. 2015 comparison.

Some comments to it:

• You can see that the total number of new aircraft delivered has slightly increased from 37,130 to 38,690, a 4.2%, which is consistent with the 4.8% traffic increase (1) that Boeing predicts (2).
• The volume (Bn$) increases by a larger percentage, 7.2% (380Bn$) up to 5.66 Trn$… this is due mainly to the increase in (3):
  • single-aisle aircraft expected sales in volume (8%, +230M$) and aircraft (+1,410), and
  • small wide-body segment with 220 more aircraft (+5%) and an increase in volume of 80 Bn$ (+7%).
• Three years ago, I wrote about a sudden change between CMO 2013 and CMO 2012 of the mix in wide-bodies; in this respect, CMO 2015 is consistent with last year’s one, showing simply an  increase in demand for both sub-segments.
• It is interesting to note how Boeing continues to downplay the large aircraft segment at the moment when a A380 is discussed, however this year’s figures are increased in relation to CMO 2014 in terms of both aircraft and volume.

This year study’s figures and presentation focus again on single-aisle (737 MAX 8, “Medium-size aircraft are at heart of single-aisle market“) and small wide-bodies (787, “opening new markets”), the products to be pushed by the sales force.

Find below the nice infographic [PDF, 464 KB] that the guys from Boeing have put up together:

Boeing Commercial Aviation Market Forecast 2016-2035 infographic.

As always, I recommend going through the CMO, as you can learn a lot about the business: from global numbers, to growth, traffic figures, fleet distributions, forecasts, etc… You may find the presentation [PDF, 4.7 MB], a file [XLS, 0.6 MB] with all the data or the full CMO report [PDF, 4.1 MB].

This year again, together with the CMO, Boeing provides two interesting papers from a couple of years ago: “Key Findings on Airplane Economic Life“ [PDF, 0.3MB, dating from August 2013] and “A Discussion of the Capacity Supply -Demand Balance within the Global Commercial Air Transport Industry“ [PDF, 0.6MB, dating from August 2013].

—

(1) Traffic increased measured in RPKS (revenue passenger kilometers) in billions.

(2) These two ratios, 4.2% fleet demand and 4.8% traffic growth, point to an implicit increase in the average size of the aircraft in fleet and / or a higher utilization of the aircraft (higher availability).

(3) These two segments (single-aisle and small wide-body) saw as well the largest increases in number of aircraft and volumes in the CMO of 2015 in relation to 2014.

(4) Find the reviews I wrote comparing 2015 CMO with 2014 CMO, 2014 CMO with 2013 CMO and 2013 CMO with 2012 CMO.

Just ahead of Paris air show, Boeing Commercial published its yearly update of the Current Market Outlook (CMO) for the next 20 years of commercial aircraft market (2015-2034).

I have just compared the figures for passenger aircraft of the last two years’ CMOs:

CMO 2015 vs 2014 comparison.

Some comments to it:

• You can see that the total number of new aircraft delivered has slightly increased from 35,930 to 37,130, a 3.3%, which is consistent with the 4.9% traffic increase (1) that Boeing predicts (2).
• The volume (Bn$) increases by a larger percentage, 6% (320Bn$)… this is due mainly to the increase in:
  • single-aisle aircraft expected sales in volume (8%, +210Bn$) and aircraft (+210), and
  • small wide-body segment with 230 more aircraft (+5%) and an increase in volume of 100Bn$ (+9%).
• Two years ago, I wrote about a sudden change between CMO 2013 and CMO 2012 of the mix in wide-bodies; in this respect, CMO 2015 is consistent with last year’s one, showing simply a slight increase in demand for both sub-segments.
• Interesting to note how Boeing continues to downplay the large aircraft segment (-16% in terms of number of aircraft) at the moment when a A380neo is discussed.

This year study’s figures and presentation focus on single-aisle (737 MAX, “fuelling forecast”) and small wide-bodies (787, “re-shaping long-haul marketplace”), the products to be pushed by the sales force.

Find below the nice infographic [PDF, 2.1MB] that the guys from Boeing have put up together:

Boeing Commercial Aviation Market Forecast 2015-2034 infographic.

As always, I recommend going through the CMO, as you can learn a lot about the business: from global numbers, to growth, traffic figures, fleet distributions, forecasts, etc… You may find the presentation [PDF, 3.8 MB], a file [XLS, 0.6 MB] with all the data or the full CMO report [PDF, 6.5MB].

For a comparison between this CMO and the respective Airbus’ GMF we will have to wait until after the summer, when Airbus publishes its update. Until then, find here the comparison based on 2014 market studies.

This year together with the CMO, Boeing provides two interesting papers from a couple of years ago: “Key Findings on Airplane Economic Life“ [PDF, 0.3MB, dating from August 2013] and “A Discussion of the Capacity Supply -Demand Balance within the Global Commercial Air Transport Industry“ [PDF, 0.6MB, dating from August 2013].

—

(1) Traffic increased measured in RPKS (revenue passenger kilometers) in billions.

(2) These two ratios, 3.3% fleet demand and 4.9% traffic growth, point to an implicit increase in the average size of the aircraft in fleet and / or a higher utilization of the aircraft (higher availability).

(3) Find the reviews I wrote comparing 2014 CMO with 2013 CMO and 2013 CMO with 2012 CMO.

Just ahead of Farnborough air show, Boeing Commercial has published its yearly update of the Current Market Outlook (CMO) for the next 20 years of commercial aircraft market (2014-2033).

I have just compared the figures for passenger aircraft of the last two years’ CMOs:

CMO 2014 vs 2013 comparison.

Some comments to it:

• You can see that the total number of new aircraft delivered has slightly increased from 34,430 to 35,930, a 4%, which is consistent with the constant 5% traffic increase that Boeing predicts (1).
• The volume (Bn$) increases by a larger percentage, 8% (360Bn$)… this is due mainly to the increase in:
  • single-aisle aircraft expected sales in volume (12%, +270Bn$) and aircraft (+1,010), and
  • medium wide-body segment with 180 more aircraft (+6%) and an increase in volume of 70Bn$ (+7%).
• Last year I wrote about a sudden change between CMO 2013 and CMO 2012 of the mix in wide-bodies; CMO 2014 is more consistent with last year’s one even if the trend is reverted again.

This year study’s figures seem to push for the 737 and 777, which is backed by the presentation as well. It is curious how 777 market is increased whereas 787 is slightly decreased.

Find below the nice infographic [PDF, 0.1MB] that the guys from Boeing have put up together:

Boeing Commercial Aviation Market Forecast 2013-2032 infographic.

As always, I recommend going through the CMO, as you can learn a lot about the business: from global numbers, to growth, traffic figures, fleet distributions, forecasts, etc… You may find the presentation [PDF, 10.6 MB] and the file [XLS, 0.7 MB] with all the data.

For a comparison between this CMO and the respective Airbus’ GMF we will have to wait until after the summer, when Airbus publishes its update. Until then, find here the comparison based on 2013 market studies.

—

(1) These two ratios, 4% fleet growth and 5% traffic growth, point to an implicit increase in the average size of the aircraft in fleet.

(2) Find the review I wrote comparing 2013 CMO with 2012 CMO.

Last week, just ahead of Le Bourget air show, Boeing Commercial published its yearly update of the Current Market Outlook (CMO) for the next 20 years of commercial aircraft market (2013-2032).

I just compared the figures for passenger aircraft of the last two years’ CMOs:

CMO 2013 vs 2012 comparison.

Some comments to it:

• You can see that the total number of new aircraft delivered has slightly increased from 33,060 to 34,430, a 4%, which is consistent with the constant 5% traffic increase that Boeing predicts.
• The volume (Bn$) increases by a larger percentage, 9% (380 Bn$)… this is due mainly to the double increase in:
  • (1) single-aisle aircraft expected sales 6,2% (+1,430 aircraft), and
  • (2) the average price list with which the list is computed, another 6.3% (from 87.3m$ to 92.8m$)
• I am puzzled to see the the sudden change in the predicted mix of twin-aisle sales, between small and medium wide-bodies…
  • small wide-bodies: from 2,720 a/c in CMO2012 to 4,320 a/c in CMO2013, whereas,
  • medium wide-bodies: from 4,490 a/c in CMO2012 to 2,810 a/c in CMO2013
  • as you can see the combined figure slightly changes (7,130 vs. 7,210), however the distribution among the two categories is drastically changed. Why is that? A question to Randy Tinseth that he did not address in his blog when the CMO was unveiled.

I would tend to think that the move is done to push some market development based on some models (787) instead of others (777), but given that it is precisely now when the upgraded versions of the 777 are supposed to be pushed into the market I fail to see the logic behind this.

Find below the nice infographic that the guys from Boeing have put up together:

Boeing Commercial Aviation Market Forecast 2013-2032 infographic.

As always, I recommend going through the CMO, as you can learn a lot about the business: from global numbers, to growth, traffic figures, fleet distributions, forecasts, etc… You may find the presentation [PDF, 9.6 MB], the booklet [PDF, 3.0 MB] and the file [XLS, 0.4 MB] with all the data.

For a comparison between this CMO and the respective Airbus’ GMF we will have to wait until after the summer, when Airbus publishes its update. Until then, find here the comparison based on 2012 market studies.