A couple of days ago I wrote about the publishing by Boeing of its Current Market Outlook for 2013-2032. In that post I made a very brief review of it, and mentioned that I was puzzled by the change in the predicted mix of twin-aisle sales, between small and medium wide-bodies. To recall the numbers:
- small wide-bodies: from 2,720 a/c in CMO2012 to 4,320 a/c in CMO2013, whereas,
- medium wide-bodies: from 4,490 a/c in CMO2012 to 2,810 a/c in CMO2013.
Since I keep a collection of CMOs from years back, I decided to compare the figures of this wide-bodies mix along the last 15 years…
Seeing at the graphic (made using Boeing figures):
- During the first 5 years (1998-2003) the trends are quite constant.,
- From 2003 to 2007, the mix is reverted, possibly to favour the launch of the 787.
- In 2008 the CMO did not provide the split.
- From 2009 to 2013, you can see that both trends in the forecasts are erratic… why? Only Boeing knows.
9 responses to “Wide-body mix in 15 years of Boeing CMOs”
The reasons why they have changed that split towards bigger widebodies is to support these arguments:
– Credibility of the 777X
– Economics of the 787-10: Supporting their current public position that this airframe will be the future best selling product of the 787 family
– Subtly infer that due to the 787-10, the average seat size will be increased for the widebodies (and that they will get this extra bite of the pie)
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