El tráfico aéreo en Cataluña desde el 1 de Octubre (actualización 2018)

En enero de 2018 escribí una entrada en el blog para ver si a partir de los datos compilados por AENA (Aeropuertos Españoles y Navegación Aérea) se podía detectar algún impacto en el tráfico aéreo en Cataluña entre el 1-O y el 27-O y los meses siguientes. Tras analizar las diferentes curvas que incluí en aquel artículo, no se podía concluir un impacto:

sacar una conclusión clara de que hasta diciembre el 1-O o el 27-O hayan tenido un impacto en el tráfico aéreo de los aeropuertos en Cataluña se hace más difícil que leer los posos del café.

AENA acaba de publicar hoy las estadísticas de tráfico aéreo (medido en pasajeros, operaciones y toneladas de mercancía transportada) de diciembre de 2018 y con ellas las del conjunto del año 2018.

Durante 2018 fui mirando dichas estadísticas regularmente y compilándolas en un archivo para poder sacar ahora de nuevo esta entrada y ver si durante 2018 ha habido algún efecto en el tráfico aéreo debido a las tensiones que se viven en Cataluña.

Pasajeros.

pax mad - bcn - palma_2018

El volumen de pasajeros en el aeropuerto de Barcelona creció en todos los meses del año 2018 con respecto a los mismos meses de 2017. En la gráfica se observa que el crecimiento fue menor que el que obtuvo el aeropuerto de Madrid, pero mayor que el que obtuvo el de Palma de Mallorca.

En todo caso, en el global anual, Barcelona creció un 6.1%, por un 8.4% de Madrid, 4.0% de Mallorca y un crecimiento nacional (la consolidación de los 48 aeropuertos de la red) de 5.8%. Por tanto creció más que el volumen total nacional.

Operaciones.

ops mad - bcn - palma_2018

En número de operaciones el aeropuerto de Barcelona creció en todos los meses del año 2018 con respecto a los mismos meses de 2017 (aunque en noviembre ese crecimiento fuese mínimo). En la gráfica se observa que el crecimiento fue menor que el que obtuvo el aeropuerto de Madrid, y aunque no se observa bien, fue también menor en porcentaje que el crecimiento que obtuvo el de Palma de Mallorca.

En todo caso, en el global anual, los tres aeropuertos tuvieron un crecimiento en volumen de operaciones menor que el crecimiento total nacional (5.8%): Barcelona creció un 3.7%, por un 5.7% de Madrid y 5.5% de Mallorca. Por tanto creció menos que el global nacional.

Mercancía.

mer mad - bcn - zgz_2018

En volumen de mercancía transportada el aeropuerto de Barcelona creció en todos los meses del año 2018 con respecto al mismo mes de 2017, aunque ese crecimiento sea un tanto irregular según los meses del año (irregularidad que ya se dio en 2017).

En la gráfica se observa un crecimiento menor que el que obtuvo el aeropuerto de Madrid, pero éste es en términos absolutos: 47 millones de toneladas adicionales en Madrid en 2018 con respecto a 2017, por 17 millones más en Barcelona. Sin embargo, en términos relativos, el volumen creció en Barcelona un 10.8% por un 9.9% en Madrid (idéntico porcentaje que el crecimiento total nacional).

En todo caso, ambos aeropuertos crecieron menos que el tercer aeropuerto en carga, Zaragoza, que creció un 17.3%, superando en varios meses el volumen transportado en Barcelona (abril y de agosto a noviembre), aunque no el global anual.

A continuación dejo una tabla resumen con la evolución mes a mes comparada entre Madrid y Barcelona.

tablas comparativas_2018

Como conclusión final: el tráfico en Barcelona ha seguido creciendo en 2018, aunque el crecimiento haya sido menor que el que obtuvo en años anteriores (el crecimiento nacional también se ha desacelerado tanto en pasajeros como operaciones y mercancía). Ha crecido menos que el aeropuerto de Madrid en pasajeros y operaciones, pero más en mercancía. Y creció más que el crecimiento total nacional en pasajeros y mercancías, pero menos en operaciones.

Por tanto, de nuevo la conclusión tras el estudio de los datos y gráficas es que no se observa un impacto en el tráfico aéreo por ninguno de los hechos ocurridos en el último trimestre de 2017, ni por la posterior implantación del 155, ni la inestabilidad política.

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Cumulative wide-body airplanes’ deliveries per model, 1969-2018

Last week, both Airbus and Boeing have released the figures of aircraft deliveries for the complete 2018: 800 and 806 airplanes, respectively, in what is a new industry record. In a previous post I showed the evolution commercial wide-body airplanes’ deliveries per year since 1969 (year of the introduction of the 747) till 2018. In this article, I wanted to show this other graphic with the evolution of the cumulative wide-body airplanes’ deliveries per model since 1969 until 2018.

cumulative wide-body airplanes' deliveries per model per year, 1969-2018

For the first time since 1969, the Boeing 747 is not the most built wide-body airplane in history, as in 2018 it was surpassed by the Boeing 777. At the end of the year cumulative deliveries stood at 1,548 and 1,582, respectively.

Diving into Boeing Commercial Airplanes site, we can see when that happened:

  • On March 20th, with the delivery of a 777-300ER (MSN 64989; LN 1548) to United Airlines (registration N2645U), the 777 programme matched the 1,543 cumulative deliveries that the 747 had achieved until then.
  • On March 22nd, with the delivery of another 777-300ER (MSN 64085; LN 1538) this time to Qatar Airways (registration A7-BEQ), the 777 programme surpassed the 747 programme deliveries, and established a new record with 1,544 cumulative deliveries. Since then, it has taken the lead until year end (1,582) and for the foreseeable near future.

boeing 777 surpasses 747 in cumulative deliveries

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Commercial wide-body airplanes’ deliveries per year, 1969-2018

This week, both Airbus and Boeing have released the figures of aircraft deliveries for the complete 2018: 800 and 806 airplanes, respectively, in what is a new industry record. This is just a quick post to update a graphic with the commercial wide-body airplanes’ deliveries per year since 1969 (year of the introduction of the 747) till 2018 (1).

commercial wide-body airplanes' deliveries per year, 1969-2018

Some reflections:

For the first time ever, in 2015 over 400 twin-aisle aircraft were delivered in a year (412), the same feat was achieved in 2016 (402). In 2017 and 2018 production descended below 400, down to 380 twin-aisles last year, still the fourth best year in the wide-body history.

The average number of deliveries for the previous 20-year period (1998-2017) was 249 airplanes per year. Up to now, in the 50 years of twin-aisle market (2), in only 7 years more than 300 airplanes were delivered in a single year, the seven last years, and only in other 9 years more than 200 airplanes had been delivered.

The combined steep production ramp-up during last years has enabled to reach a production rate of about the double of what was produced in 2010 (195). In particular, the combined compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the rate of deliveries for the last 10 years has been 7.6%. These rates are above the yearly growth of traffic (measured in RPKs).

With the figures up to the end of 2018, above 9,100 wide-body airplanes had been delivered. Thus, around the end of 2020 we will reach reach the 10,000th. However, we won’t know whether the 10,000th twin aisle will be a Boeing or an Airbus.

The share of wide-body deliveries in 2018: 59% Boeing and 41% Airbus.

There were 145 787s delivered in 2018, the largest amount of twin-aisle deliveries of a single model in a single year ever. A remarkable feat and new industry record for the wide body segment, beating its mark of 2016 (137). Only the 787 and the A330 have ever been delivered in excess of 100 aircraft in any given year; 4 times for the A330 (between 2012 and 2015) and the last 5 years in the case of the 787.

The deliveries of the 777 have been decreased by half in the past two years: from 99 in 2016 to 48 in 2018. This is similar output valley than what happened with the A330 when reaching the mark of ~ 2 years before targeted entry into service (EIS) of the new version, the A330neo: delivery decrease in 2016 for an 2018 EIS for the A330neo, and delivery decrease in 2018 for a 2020 Q2 target EIS for the 777X.

a330_b777_valleys

 

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(1) See here a previous post with the figures up to 2017.

(2) On February 9th, it will be the mark of the 50th anniversary of the 747 first flight.

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Evolución de la percepción de la “Independencia de Cataluña” como problema en los barómetros del CIS entre 2017 y 2018.

En esta entrada del blog quería compartir unas gráficas que acabo de compilar con las series de las respuestas a la pregunta barómetro del CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas):

“¿Cuál es, a su juicio, el principal problema que existe actualmente en España?

… y tomando los porcentajes de encuestados que responden “Independencia de Cataluña”.

En una serie de tuits durante los dos últimos años he ido repasando la evolución del dato. Tras publicarse ayer el barómetro con los datos de diciembre 2018, he compilado las gráficas con los datos de las respuestas mes a mes.

 

Los resultados son los de abajo.

¿Cuál es, a su juicio, el principal problema que existe actualmente en España? ¿Y el segundo? ¿Y el tercero?

cis_cat_esp_total

cis_cat_esp_123

Como se puede observar, antes de septiembre y octubre de 2017 la “Independencia de Cataluña” no le preocupaba prácticamente a nadie. En esos dos meses se puso de actualidad hasta ser percibido como el tercer problema del país en octubre de 2017. Dos meses después, en diciembre de 2017, la percepción de su importancia había decaído en gran medida. Y como se ve en las gráficas,  ese descenso es continuo (hasta ser el 10º problema en diciembre de 2018), con repuntes en los meses de abril y septiembre de 2018.

¿Y cuál es el problema que a Ud., personalmente, le afecta más? ¿Y el segundo? ¿Y el tercero?

cis_cat_pers_total

cis_cat_pers_123

Como se puede observar el porcentaje de encuestados que responden que la “Independencia de Cataluña” le afecta personalmente es siempre alrededor de un tercio de los que percibe dicho problema como importante para el conjunto de España.

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Aviation safety evolution (2018 update)

Yesterday, the Aviation Safety Network released the 2018 airliner accident statistics showing a total of 15 fatal airliner accidents, resulting in 556 fatalities.

Aviation Safety Network is a private initiative from the Flight Safety Foundation which curates an extensive database with aviation incidents, hijackings and accidents, from 1946 to nowadays.

The tweet with which they made the announcement is below:

Which includes the graphic below.

ASN_infographic_2018.

If we take a quick look at the figures (which report commercial aviation flights (passenger and cargo)):

  • Number of accidents: 15, up from 10 in 2017, though still the 3rd safest year in history.
  • Fatalities: 556, up from 44 in 2017, the 9th safest year in history.
  • There were a few accidents with large number of fatalities (details here).

The graphic above from the Aviation Safety Network provides the view of the evolution of accidents. However, in their database they provide some more figures with which I produced some graphics.

Evolution of accidents per million flights

The database provides figures of the evolution of the number of world air departures since 1970, together with the evolution of accidents (above). The database includes a ratio: fatal accidents per million flights, which I have plotted below together with the evolution of flight departures. You can see that the ratio has decreased 16 fold since 1970, from 6.35 to 0.39 last year.

2018_safety_accidents_per_flights

Global air traffic vs fatalities

The database provides no ratio with the figures of fatalities, but they can be related to the amount of passengers carried. In aviation there is the concept of revenue passenger kilometre (RPK) transported, which is compiled year by year and can be found in publications from ICAO, IATA or aircraft manufacturers. I have plotted below both the evolution of traffic growth and fatalities since 1970, together with a 5-year moving average for the fatalities.

2018_safety_RPK_vs_fatalities

Within the evolution of traffic there are two variables that have grown over the years: the number of passengers carried per flight departure and the distance covered. Therefore, together with the decrease in the evolution of fatalities (taking the 5 year average) I have plotted below the evolution of the ratio of fatalities per trillion RPK. You can see that the ratio has decreased 54 fold since 1970, from 3,218 to 59 last year (5-year average).

2018_safety_fatalities_per_RPK

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Reading language, format and age of books (2018 update)

Three years ago, I wrote a couple of blog posts where I reflected on the mix of languages I used when reading books between English, French and Spanish and about the format of the books I read, whether electronic or paper books. In the past two years I have updated the figures in dedicated blog articles and this post, written after having shared last week my 2018 reading list, is just a follow up update of those two tables and a third one:

Reading language

Booksperlanguage_2018

From 2010 to mid-2015 I read mostly in English. From mid-2015 I have started to read more in Spanish than in the past (mainly classics) and in French. In terms of books the mix for 2018 was English 48%, French 26% and Spanish 26%. However, last year I thought that the mix would be better measured in terms of pages read, as the books can vary quite a bit in their length. Thus, in terms of pages: English 45%, French 23% and Spanish 32%. Since then I also compile that bit of information in a different table.

Pagesperlanguage_2018

Reading format

Booksperformat_2017

In 2018 I did not read any book in electronic format, all were in paper format. As I estimated here the amortization of the e-reader in about 20 e-books read with it, I am still just above half way through achieving that. I already anticipated it in the blog post from last year:

Seeing, the stock of paper books that I have in the shelves, I doubt that I will read many e-books in the near term.

Age of the books

Since 2016, I decided to focus more on reading classics and books that have aged well, i.e., that their impact on society has not faded after having made it to the best selling positions of the literature pages for the current the year. Thus, I try to limit the proportion of books that I read from the last 10 or 30 years. This can be tracked as well:

Booksperage_2018

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Summary of (my) 2018

Time to look back and reflect on how the year which is about to end developed. Brief recap of my 2018. (1)

The main events of the year: Luca switched jobs and started working for Airbus, and Andrea switched languages and her default language is now English.

2018_1

Having said that: other personal objectives for 2018 have been moderately accomplished to different extents. Now, let’s review the year in more detail.


Flying. It took me until March 30th to make the first flight of the year, but since then it has been the year in which I flew the most, with above 23 flight hours, including 29 take-offs and landings. This year we could not manage to make our flight excursion to San Sebastian to have lunch but we did one to Auch. This year as well, together with my friend Asier, I took part in the aviation rally of our aeroclub (see here the post about it). But above all, I will remember this year by the incredible flight excursions we made to England and the Balearic islands.

Together with Albert, a work colleague, we flew to England over a weekend to attend the Flying Legends air show. We took the opportunity to visit the Shuttleworth collection and see its flying display. And on the way back and forth we over flew some Loire valley castles, the Mount Saint Michel, the racing circuits of Le Mans and Silverstone, the coast of Normandy, the Isle of Wight… it was an amazing experience. See here the post about it.

Collage_2018_1

A couple of months later, we flew over another weekend to Menorca and Mallorca with the children. We bathed at the hotel pool and the beach only one day, but we over flew the wonderful coastlines of both islands in another memorable excursion. See here the post about it.

Collage_2018_2

These two excursions have meant a learning and experience leap forward in terms of planning, flying and radio communication skills, and equipped with that experience and confidence no doubt that in 2019 I will be preparing other flight excursions as interesting as those.

If I recall it well, this year my work colleague Alex, fellow pilot Albert, Pablito and my sister Beatriz flew for the first time  with me at the controls. I flew as well with Luca, Andrea and David a few times, and with Asier. Believe me, there are very few things more enjoyable than flying with friends. I am sure that in 2019 that will be the case with some more.

Other things aviation. This year, I finally visited the aviation museum of Toulouse, Aeroscopia (opened in 2015). I also visited the Imperial War museum at Duxford (England) and the Shuttleworth collection, as referred above. In that trip, I attended two air shows: Flying Legends and the display of the collection. On top of that, I read a couple of aviation books, “Tintin, Herge – et les avions“, and the classic “Skunk Works“.

Airbus. After 4 years of development and 11 months of flight test campaign, the A330neo, the Airbus project in which I have been working since mid-2015, obtained its type certificate on September 26th and the first production aircraft was delivered to TAP Portugal airline, two months later, on November 26th. Those have been great achievements for the teams; and on a personal level, as well. And that also means that in the coming year I’ll be switching jobs again.

2018_2

Believe it or not, there were other things than aviation in our lives in 2018:

Public speaking. One of my objectives for the year was to become a bit more active in the in-company Toastmasters public speaking club, and was able to meet it: I prepared and delivered a few speeches (4) and participated in contests; I came in second place at both club and area level, not being able to participate further. See here the speech that I gave at area level.

Blogging. This year I managed to write 36 blog posts, more than in 2017 (13), though less than the years before (70-100). The blog received nearly 41,000 visits in 2018 (about the same than in 2017) and above 368,000 since I started it in 2010.

Reading. Since moving to our new house, we have dedicated one of the rooms to be a family library (call it a pet project). We keep on buying books that we consider good enough and place them there, keeping our curiosity and the thirst for good reads always alive. This year I kept up with the reading pace, trying to read 25 pages a day (which on average I managed), for a total of over 9,200 pages (over 1,100 more than in 2017) and 27 books. This permitted me to tackle some classics which I had wanted to read for some time such as “War and peace”, the “Aeneid” or “Le rouge et le noir”. For the complete list of books, see the post I wrote about my 2018 reading list with a brief description of each book.

Running. In 2018 I have run just above 1,100 kilometres, another “minimum” yearly mileage since I arrived to Toulouse in late 2010. I started training well in January but fell ill at the end of the month, which forced me to stay in bed for a week. It then complicated into otitis and I found myself in March not having almost run for weeks. Since then, I found it difficult to find the motivation to run systematically. Nevertheless, I did run 10 races, including 2 marathons (Vienna and Dublin (with great feelings and better than expected time)), 3 half marathons, a couple of trails (Ronde des Foies Gras (26 km) and Trail du Cassoulet (32 km)) and a few other races.

2018_3

Collage_2018_3

Skiing. In 2018 we have repeated the wonderful all-family skiing week in the Alps (Vars) as we did in 2017 and as we will do again in a few weeks in 2019. This year, Luca and I were placed in the same group and Andrea continued making progress, earning her “Blanchon” medal. In the afternoons we enjoyed going altogether to practice some luge near the hotel with David.

Collage_2018_5

Cycling. Did I ever write about cycling in this blog in the previous years? No, right? Long story short: we climbed the Col du Tourmalet last August with my friends of the university in what was a great excursion. See here the post about it.

IMG_20180818_081539828

Bull fighting. This year again, I managed to attend a bull fight, it was in May during the Feria de Pentecôte at Vic Fezensac, a small lively village in the Gers (France). Later on, in August, while touring Navarra and Pamplona we visited the Plaza de Toros and its wonderful museum, very informative and descriptive of the world famous encierros of San Fermin.

Collage_2018_4

Travelling. This year we visited Madrid, San Lorenzo del Escorial, Gap (Route Napoleon), Avignon (Pont and Palace des Papes), Bruniquel (castle), Vienna, Eurodisney (in a wonderful weekend for the kids… and even more for me!), Vic Fezensac, Bordeaux, Nantes, Saint-Malo (a wonderful city), Mount Saint Michel, Omaha beach (WWII), Honfleur, Compiègne (WWI Armistice), the Château de Cheverny (Tintin), England (see flight excursion above), Navarra (Olite, Pamplona, Javier, Roncesvalles), Sarrant, Lavardens (castle), Luz Saint Sauveur, Pont d’Espagne, Menorca and Mallorca (see flight excursion above), Ireland (Dublin, Cashel, Kilkenny, Killarney, ring of Kerry, Glendalough), Auch, Saint-Benoît-du-Sault, Château du Clos Lucé (Leonardo da Vinci), Empel (“miracle of Empel”), Somme (WWI battle), The Hague, Breda, Amiens (cathedral), Château de Chinon, San Sebastian… Many of these places have meant repeat visits, but they are lovely and we’ll continue to go there.

Collage_2018_6

Most of those travels were road trips. And for us 2018 started with a grain of luck (and use of chains) by we being able to get out rather quickly from the snow-covered A-6 road out of Madrid on the evening of the 6th of January that made the news for a few days for having thousands of people blocked in the road over night.

Nieve_A6

Other reasons for joy in 2018 have been:

  • My family: my sister started working for Accenture in Denmark and in November came to visit us in the new house for a first time. My brother (despite of my calls for him to come to France) keeps enjoying Sevilla with the high pace job at the last stages of A400M deliveries with increased responsibility, learning and teaching opportunities. My father keeps attending the university (50 years later) to enjoy history lessons, having frequent meals with friends, attending conferences and even started going to the gym (!). My mother keeps being as energetic as always doing massages, visiting the family, travelling (she went to Saint Michel just a couple of months after I went), reading, teaching Andrea Spanish and swimming (or anything you ask her for!), etc.
  • Some more friends got married: Marisa and Laurent.
  • And we welcome some newborns from family and friends: Adrian, Benjamin, Thijs. (2)

Now it’s time to rest, celebrate and soon to plan how we want the 2019 to turn out. For me it will include a change of jobs, the starting of my son David into pre school, another all-family skiing week in the Alps, lots of flying (hopefully with one or two amazing excursions) and running (including at least a marathon in Cracovia), some books to read, museums to see, trips and excursions to enjoy… For now, I will close 2018 celebrating my sister’s birthday, running the San Silvestre Vallecana in Madrid with several friends and enjoying a last dinner with the family.

I wish you the best for 2019, enjoy it!

02. Selfie at departure

(1) You can see here my 20102011, 20122013201420152016 and 2017 recaps.

(2) So far, I have never written about it to keep an uplifting tone for these yearly posts, but, as we grow older, you can imagine that every year we have had also our sad moments of having to say good-bye to fellow family members and friends. Today is a good moment as well to think about them.

 

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