Two years ago, I wrote a post showing the puzzling change in Boeing’s predicted mix of twin-aisle sales, between small and medium wide-bodies (“Wide-body mix in 15 years of Boeing CMOs”) (1). A few days ago I wrote a post about the publishing by Boeing of its Current Market Outlook for 2015-2034. As I noted in that post, this year’s CMO is consistent with last year’s figures, i.e., the larger share of the forecasted market corresponds to small wide-bodies (787s from Boeing’s perspective). Recall the numbers:
- small wide-bodies: 4,500 a/c in CMO2015 (passenger aircraft only),
- medium wide-bodies: 2,990 a/c in CMO2015 (same figure as in CMO2014).
In the sub-segment of the medium wide-bodies passenger aircraft figures for have remained constant and there is a slight increase in freighters (60 a/c); whereas for small wide-bodies the main increase is seen in the passenger aircraft (+230 a/c).
Since I keep a collection of CMOs from many years, I will include again a comparison going 17 years back…
Twin-aisle mix distribution (Boeing CMO 1998-2015, includes both passenger and freighter aircraft).
Seeing at the graphic, made using Boeing’s forecasts’ figures:
- During the first 5 years (1998-2003) the trends are quite constant, seeing medium wide-bodies a slightly higher demand.
- From 2003 to 2007, the mix is reverted, possibly to favour the launch of the 787.
- In 2008 the CMO did not provide the split.
- From 2009 to 2013, you can see that both trends in the forecasts are erratic… why? Only Boeing knows. (2)
- From 2013 to 2015, it seems that the trends are stabilized again in a higher demand for 787-size aircraft.
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(1) Last year, I made an update of that post with the consolidated view of the last 16 years, find it here.
(2) A speculation: a Boeing-internal need to sell the concept of the 777X?
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