Monthly Archives: January 2016

Commercial wide-body airplanes’ deliveries per year, 1969-2015

The first wide body commercial airplane, the first twin-aisle ever, the Boeing 747 first flew in February 9th 1969 and it was first delivered to a customer (Pan Am) in December 1969. In the following years new wide bodies arrived to the market: the Douglas DC-10 (in 1971), the Lockheed TriStar (1972), the Airbus A300 (1974)…

In the last weeks, both Airbus and Boeing have released the figures of aircraft deliveries for the complete 2015. With them I updated a graphic I had made back in 2013 with the commercial wide-body airplanes’ deliveries per year. Take a look at it.

Commercial wide-body airplanes' deliveries per year, 1969-2015.

Commercial wide-body airplanes’ deliveries per year, 1969-2015.

Some reflections:

For the first time ever, over 400 twin-aisle aircraft were delivered in a year. The feat is remarkable.

The average number of deliveries for the previous 20-year period (1995-2014) was 215 airplanes per year. Up to now, in the previous 46 years of twin-aisle market, in only 3 years more than 300 airplanes were delivered in a single year (the previous 3: 2012, 2013 and 2014) and only 12 times more than 200 airplanes had been delivered (including the previous 3 with more than 300).

The combined steep production ramp-up during last 4 years has enabled to reach a production rate of almost the double of what was produced just 5 years ago. In particular, the combined compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the rate of deliveries for the last 5 years has been 16.1%, for the last 10 years 10.4%. These rates are the triple and double than the yearly growth of traffic (measured in RPKs).

With the figures up to the end of 2015, almost 8,000 wide-body airplanes had been delivered. Thus, by now, end of January 2016, we have certainly reached the figure (1). We however don’t know whether the 8,000th twin aisle was a Boeing or an Airbus (2).

The share of deliveries in 2015: 65% Boeing and 35% Airbus. Boeing has slightly increased its share of deliveries in the last 4-5 years, in particular with the ramp-up of the 787.

There were 135 787s delivered in 2015. That is another remarkable feat: the largest amount of twin-aisle deliveries of a single model in a single year ever.

Only 6 times ever (combination of model-year) have there been twin-aisle deliveries of over a hundred airplanes: the A330 in the last 4 years (with a peak of 108 airplanes in 2013 -then a record- and 2014) and the 787 the last two years. Only other 10 times there were deliveries of more than 80 airplanes of a single model in a year: the A330 (2010-2011), the 747 in 1970 and the 777 (7 times, including the last 4 years consecutively, out of which the last 3 on the verge of 100 deliveries – 98, 99, 98).

Two days ago Boeing released its 2015 earnings, and with it news of 777 production cut came up. Some time before similar news had come of 747 production rate decrease. With these news, quickly came comments of whether aerospace cycle may have peaked (see here). Looking backwards it’s clear that 2015 was a peak in wide-bodies deliveries. Looking forward it may have been a short-term peak, but looking further ahead it is not so clear. I will leave for another post the outlook of past deliveries mixed with what Airbus and Boeing market forecasts say (GMF and CMO, respectively).

(1) With the sources I used,  at the end of 2015 there were a combined 7,988 wide-bodies delivered. However, I found different figures for the deliveries of the Ilyushin IL-86 (between 95 and 106). In any case, both figures would leave the total tally below 8,000 (making 2016 “the year of the 8,000th delivery”); I took for the analysis most conservative figure.

(2) Working at the moment for the Airbus A330neo programme, I will assume the 8,000th delivery was an A330, rather than a Boeing.

(3) I have indicated in the post that we have just passed the mark of 8,000 wide-bodies delivered since 1969, and, on the other hand, the different studies state that there are about 4,900 twin-aisle in operation. The gap of ~3,100 airplanes corresponds to those retired, parked, scrapped, crashed, displayed in museums…

4 Comments

Filed under Aerospace & Defence

Flying over the Cathar castles

An extract from the Wikipedia to introduce the Catharism to start with:

Catharism was a Christian dualist movement that thrived in […] southern France, between the 12th and 14th centuries. Cathar beliefs varied between communities, because Catharism was initially taught by ascetic priests, who had set few guidelines. The Catholic Church denounced its practices and dismissed it as “the Church of Satan”.

[…] Though the term “Cathar” has been used for centuries to identify the movement, whether the movement identified itself with this name is debatable. In Cathar texts, the terms “Good Men” (Bons Hommes) or “Good Christians” are the common terms of self-identification. The idea of two Gods or principles, one being good and the other evil, was central to Cathar beliefs. The good God was the God of the New Testament and the creator of the spiritual realm, contrasted with the evil Old Testament God—the creator of the physical world whom many Cathars, and particularly their persecutors, identified as Satan. All visible matter, including the human body, was created by this evil god; it was therefore tainted with sin. This was the antithesis to the monotheistic Catholic Church, whose fundamental principle was that there was only one God, who created all things visible and invisible. Cathars thought human spirits were the genderless spirits of angels trapped within the physical creation of the evil god, cursed to be reincarnated until the Cathar faithful achieved salvation through a ritual called the consolamentum.

A tourism highlight of the region, the French Sud-Ouest, is the visit to one or several of the many Cathar castles spread in it.

"Cathares air ways", Info Pilote magazine.

“Cathares air ways”, Info Pilote magazine.

Years ago, a colleague (Asier) shared with me an extract of the French Aviation Federation (FFA)  magazine, Info-Pilote, with a proposed route to fly over some of the Cathar castles in the region. Ever since, this has been an excursion in the to-do list.

A few days ago we did it.

I booked some weeks ago a plane of the aeroclub for 3 hours for the morning of Sunday 17th. We were lucky enough to have an incredibly sunny, calm and clear morning in the mid of cloudy and rainy weeks. Thus, we went to the aeroclub and at 9am we started preparing the plane, checking last-minute weather reports, NOTAMs, restricted zones, printing a missing aerodrome chart, refueling the plane… the series of procedures that make general aviation take always longer time spans than you think.

At 9:50am I started the engine.

“DR400 avec 4 personnes abord au parking ACAT, avec l’information Alfa, pour un vol de navigation autour des chateaux cathares, pour rouler au point d’arret de la piste 33…”

What followed were 2 hours of a wonderful flight.

Navigation log.

Navigation log.

The route, as calculated while I planned the navigation the night before, extended for over 160 nautical miles (about 300 km). We flew over the following Cathar castles: Saissac, Lastours, Carcassone, Termes, Queribus, Peyrepertuse, Puylaurens, Puivert and Montsegur.

Each of those castles definitely deserves a walk-in visit. But, yep, among the many cool things aviation can offer on the spot walk-in visits are not among them. I had visited before the castles of Carcassonne and Montsegur, I now have on the to-be-visited list some others, though most of them are not easy at all to access.

I will be brief in text and generous in pictures (1).

Saissac.

Saissac.

Lastours.

Lastours.

Carcassonne.

Carcassonne.

Termes.

Termes.

Queribus.

Queribus.

Peyrepertuse.

Peyrepertuse.

Puylaurens.

Puylaurens.

Puivert.

Puivert.

Montsegur.

Montsegur.

Pyrenees.

Pyrenees.

Cockpit.

Cockpit.

Andrea's feet.

Andrea’s feet.

 

(1) In fact, the generosity and credit go to both Luca and Asier who were the ones taking the pictures.

2 Comments

Filed under Aerospace & Defence

Reading format

BooksIn a previous post, Reading language, I reflected on the mix of languages about the books that I read. This post, some days later, triggered the idea of taking a look at which format do I use when reading books; paper books or electronic books.

I have had a couple of electronic readers since some time ago. The first one being a gift received in 2010 (1) and the second one, a similar model I bought in 2013 to replace the previous model which got damaged. I have always thought that the business case for the electronic book was clear and positive: after just reading about 20 books in it the purchase was probably justified, especially if those books were classic ones, of which free copies are available in the net.

Find below the figures.

ReadingFormat

However, taking a look at the table above, the business case for me it has clearly not yet proven positive… In the past 5 years I have read less than 10 electronic books. So far, the cost of the 2 e-readers that I have had, plus the cost of the ebooks divided by the number of books I read in electronic format (a figure between 20 and 30 euros) surely exceeds the average cost of the books in paper format that I buy (which I haven’t calculated but must be between 10 and 20 euros).

What is actually the electronic book adoption trend nowadays? I found several articles. It seems that the high growth of the e-book market up to 2010 has more or less stopped. In this article from The New York Times, it is mentioned that about 30% of readers read a majority of books in electronic format, whereas this other one mentions that in terms of sales ebooks represent as well around 27-30%.

Finally, on the other hand, there is people like my wife, Luca; if she made the numbers for her reading habits, they would show that she reads books per dozens per year and that she reads a large majority of electronic books. She has a Kindle reader from Amazon, rather than a Sony e-reader as I do. This subtle difference may have a point in the shaping of habits: in the Kindle the shop is in the device itself. In a couple of clicks she has the book with her. In my case, I have to buy or download the books using a computer and then transfer the files from the computer to the reader. I guess that this subtle difference, which eases the availability of books for Kindle readers, may have a big impact.

Note: In 2013 I completed reading “Thinking Fast and Slow” which I started in electronic format, but after my e-reader got damaged I continued and completed in paper format (in the meantime, Luca had bought it in parallel in paper), hence the use of decimals.

(1) I received this gift at the end of 2010 from former work colleagues when I left my job in Madrid for Toulouse. I therefore include in the table for the mix of format, only the books from 2011 onwards (it is obvious that before 2011 all the books I read were in paper format).

3 Comments

Filed under Books

My forecast of Boeing Commercial Airplanes 2015 revenues

Last year, I put the model I use to estimate the discounts applied by Boeing on the sales of its commercial aircraft to the test of trying to forecast in advance what would be Boeing Commercial Airplanes division revenues for the year. In this post I want to repeat that exercise (1).

The latest estimate of the discounts that I made, in 2015 yielded a 47% (same as the previous year). See here the post in which that estimate was explained (using Boeing’s reported figures of deliveries, orders, list prices and revenues) and below its evolution.

 

Boeing Average Discount Evolution, through 2014.

Boeing Average Discount Evolution, through 2014.

As of today, January 11th, Boeing revenues for the full year 2015 have not been announced yet. Boeing’s investors relations website informs that the 2015 earnings conference call will take place on January 27th.

The process and sources with which I will reach to my forecast are described below:

  1. See here Boeing (net) orders for the year 2015: 768 aircraft among all models.
  2. See here Boeing deliveries in the year 2015: 762 aircraft among all models.
  3. See here Boeing 2015 list prices.
  4. See in the above curve the average discount I will use: 47% (this is the figure calculated with 2014 data, and that is a hypothesis that will be put to test with how accurate the forecast turns out).
  5. See here [PDF, 839KB] Q3 2015 earnings press release. I use it to see how were faring in 2015 Boeing Commercial Airplanes services, deducing it from the reported figures of Sales of Services, Boeing Capital and Global Services & Support, reported in different pages of the release. Up to end September 2015, the services figures were increasing in comparison to 2014 figures. I will assume the global figure to follow the same proportional increase; arriving at ~1,636 m$ for Boeing Commercial Airplanes services (remember, this figure will not be actually explicitly reported).

With all these ingredients… my forecast is: 66.98 bn$ (2).

In the 2015 Q3 report you can see Boeing’s own guidance for year-end figures:

Boeing’s 2015 Financial Outlook at Q3 2015 earnings press release.

Boeing’s 2015 Financial Outlook at Q3 2015 earnings press release.

Some comments:

First, you can see that my forecast (66.98 bn$) is about a billion dollars more optimistic than Boeing’s own outlook 3 months ago, 65.0-66.0 bn$  (3), which was even lifted from 64.5 – 65.5 in the 2015 Q3 earnings release.

Second, in the 2015 Q3 release, you can see the revenues up to end September (below). In them, you can see that up to then, revenues of Boeing Commercial Airplanes had increased 16% in relation to 2014. My forecast is a bit less optimistic here for the year-end as it estimates the increase in revenues will be +12% (that is due to lower deliveries in the Q4 of 2015).

Boeing Commercial Airplanes revenues Q3 2015.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes revenues Q3 2015.

Final comment: if Boeing managed in 2015 to command better prices on delivered aircraft, the figure will be even higher. If the figure is lower than the 66.0 bn$, and in line with Boeing’s Outlook, it’ll mean that the market is forcing Boeing to apply ever higher discounts to their published list prices.

I am now looking forward to January 27th and Boeing’s earnings call!

Note: After Boeing’s earnings call, in order to compare the results with the forecast and evaluate its accuracy I will either write an update of this post or a new entry.

(1) See here the post from last year, in which I missed the revenues by just a 0.3%, closer than analysts and Boeing’s own financial guidance provided in their 2014 Q3 earnings release.

(2) To be more precise the forecast from the model is 66,978 m$.

(3) As I mentioned in last year’s post, if my forecast turns out correct some may be tempted to say that this is the usual trick played by CFOs: to present better figures (in the results) than expected (in the outlook).

3 Comments

Filed under Aerospace & Defence

Reading language

In a previous post, Musings on objectives setting, I mentioned about reading:

I found that I am not that fast reader (in English and French and neither in Spanish!) nor all the books that I pick are that easy or short, so I linger every year around the 10 books.

BookShelfIn the second half of 2015 I was able to catch up with the objective by reading 2 books a month as intended. This demanded a rigorous approach, dedicating some time each night to reading (not that I didn’t enjoy it!).

I then reflected on the fact that of the last 8 books I read: 4 were in Spanish (plus 3 in English and 1 in French, a light novel by Saint-Exupéry). Did it help in that last reading rush that I read more books in Spanish than in 2014? In 2014 the mix of the books I read was 8 in English and 2 in Spanish. This reflection triggered the curiosity to find out the language mix of the books I read in the previous years, which I checked with the help of this blog (1). See below:

Booksperlanguage

I do not speak many languages, thus I cannot read all the books I read in their original languages (e.g. “The diary of a young girl” or “Crime and Punishment” lately). However, I try to read books in their original language when the authors write in English, Spanish or French, with few exceptions (normally due to availability of a book). When I cannot read one in the original language, I assume that the different translations to the languages I understand are as good (2) and I normally chose the Spanish version to ease the reading.

Seeing the mix above, in the last 6 years I have read more than three times as many books in English than in Spanish. This was intentional, since over a decade ago, in order to keep learning, improving, and to exercise the mind (3). I considered that each book I read in English (or now in French) met two objectives in one: using a different language and reading. It is only now that I reflect that by pushing myself to this exercise I might be reading a bit less than I could if I read always in Spanish, but I am happy with the mix and I think I will keep up with that policy.

I wonder whether you have similar reading language mixes or policies, feel free to comment below if you like.

(1) Either in a specific post about each year’s personal reading list or in the personal summary of each year provided some info of the books I read. However, in 2011 and 2010 I relied on a then available feature of LinkedIn which enabled you to track and comment books read, not active anymore. I retrieved some info of what books I read in those years via the book reviews I made in the blog but I was not able to retrieve all books from 2010 (over a dozen vs 11 I am able to track now).

(2) This may be a bold assumption, but I never go that far as to knowing or researching about how good translators are (may be I should!).

(3) Similar reasons are behind the fact of writing most of the posts in the blog in English: exercising, learning and improving, plus reaching a much wider audience (including foreign in-laws and friends).

4 Comments

Filed under Books

Musings on objectives setting

A few days ago, I had a short Twitter exchange with a couple of friends on  objectives. Sara mentioned that she was not setting objectives for the New Year. Nacho made a point of my objective tracking approach, which I detailed in a post in the blog back in 2011 (Personal mid-year review). Unfortunately (or fortunately) I do not follow such a thorough approach anymore (1), though I do set myself some personal yearly objectives, have them noted down, track them, etc.

In that post from 2011, I made reference to a previous post in which I commented on a HBR study and a post post by Sid Savara. The main takeaways from those readings were: have the goals in written, have plans towards achieving them and share the objectives with someone (at least with someone you have confidence with, not necessarily with everyone!).

In this post I quickly wanted to share some examples of the objectives I set to myself (2):

  • Reading: as I mentioned in a previous post in which I shared a summary of (my) 2015, I set myself a minimum objective of reading 10 books a year. I do not read any book for the sake of meeting the objective. It is rather that I have dozens of very much dear books in the shelves waiting to be read and I keep buying (and grabbing from my parents’ home) books that I think would teach me something or add some value. Ideally, I would like to read about 2 books a month. That would make over 20 books in a year, however, during some periods along a year I read less often, I found that I am not that fast reader (in English and French and neither in Spanish!) nor all the books that I pick are that easy or short, so I linger every year around the 10 books. Do I share the objective? Up to now, not explicitly, though I force myself to write at least a yearly post commenting the books I have read… thus, I do have to read them! Follow up: it is not very structured, though I know at any moment the books I have read along the year (I keep a record) and every now and then make some numbers of pages to be read per day, per week, in order to complete this or that book at a given point in time.
  • Writing: here I always remember a tip from Conor Neill, a professor at IESE, who says that we should strive to write something everyday, at least 500 words (see the blog post where he explains the benefits of doing so, Writing to reflect. Mindful leadership). In my case, apart from job emails, files, presentations…, I do not write (and reflect on) for this blog (or any other format) on personal interests everyday. Ever since I started the blog, back in February 2010, I intended to write regularly. What does that mean? Initially I aimed at publishing 8 posts per month, I lowered this target lately to about 6 posts per month. That would make about 70 a year. In 2015 I just met that target. Previously I had always been above 80 posts. See below the monthly production.

Blog post per month

Blog post per year

  • Speaking: on this front I was very consistent when I joined Toastmasters in December 2007, trying to give a public speech every two months. I kept being quite engaged until more or less mid 2012. I then dropped Toastmasters until I re-engaged myself in mid 2014 at the corporate club of Airbus in Toulouse. I am now trying to figure out the pace at which the club attendance allows and I am able to prepare myself to speak often (by speaking I refer to giving prepared speeches, as every two weeks in the club almost everyone gets to speak either with a role of evaluator, in table topics, etc). Thus, a vague objective (speaking regularly), not quantified, not yet in written, though shared.
  • Flying: for this objective scheduling is key. As I mentioned in the post where I shared my path to the private pilot license (PPL), it took me 4 years to obtain it mainly due to the difficulty in finding slots. From March 2015 (once I had passed the theoretical exam) I was more rigorous, always trying to have at least two slots scheduled with the instructor and airplanes booked at any point in time. This enabled that, even if many slots had to be cancelled due to weather conditions (or any other issue), I was more regular with the flying, I managed to obtain the license and fly over 19 hours. For the 2016, the goal is clear: to fulfil the requirements to maintain the license, that is 12 flight hours with 6 take offs and landings in the last 6 months prior to the license expiry date. On top of that, in order to carry passengers it is required to have completed 3 take offs and landings in the previous 90 days. Thus, the requirements by law help you in aiming at flying often. On the other hand, I was trained to fly on Robin DR 400 airplanes and another objective I have is to learn to fly another model, Diamond DA20 in order to have more flexibility with the scheduling of airplanes and be able to fly oftenhow often is often? At least a flight per month (ideally 2), about 2 flight hours a month… this objective, then, is well followed up with the aeroclub scheduling tools, navigation logs, etc.
  • Running: with the running I have many and varied objectives. From running (e.g.) 2,000 km in a year, to completing at least 2 marathons a year, to beating personal best times (PBs) in different distances (10k, half marathon and marathon), to other miscellanea objectives (e.g. running x days in a given week, y kilometres in a given week or month, running some special race, running a number of days while on holidays…). For the completion of marathons and aiming at PBs I do schedule training plans at the online tool provided by Garmin (the provider of the GPS watch I use). Thus, the objectives are clearly defined, shared (with Luca, colleagues, in social media) and well followed up.

And it is here that I wanted to stress on the definition of the goal, its writing and its sharing. I will take the objective “running 2,000 km”. In 2014 I started to publish online in Twitter regularly both the goal and how I was progressing.

With the online tool I have the objective clearly written down and tracked, I know whether I am ahead or behind, the weekly or monthly mileage needed to attain the goal, etc. The sharing of the goal in my inner circles helps with the finding slots to run. The sharing of the goal more widely encourages and pushes oneself. See below how I reached the objective in 2015. You can see that while the training towards Seville (February) and Madrid (April) marathons lasted I was well ahead the reference. After those marathons took place I fell behind, even if I only fully stopped for a week after Madrid marathon. I kept running below the reference weekly mileage until the end of June, when I was 70km behind… I then subscribed for Millau (September) and started building up mileage for it, then extended the training up to Toulouse marathon (October), stopped only 3 days after it and, since then, I always was around or over the reference to attain the goal (even if I had to stop for over a week at the end of November due to a cold that got me down with severe throat ache).

Running mileage 2015 progression

***

It is clear that each one has a different approach and there is not a single one that fits us all. Many will not want to be constrained by fixed goals, nor be reminded of them by having them written, even less sharing some goal they are unsure to meet, not to talk about publishing it on social media! This is just how I go about trying to meet some personal objectives.

(1) At least not for every objective and plotting a global indicator.

(2) These goals are easy to share others are kept in the inner circles.

1 Comment

Filed under Personal development & HR

San Silvestre 2015

Fifteenth participation (1) in the popular San Silvestre Vallecana on New Year’s Eve.

The team this time was composed by some 8 friends (Nacho, me, Pablo, Maicol, Carlos, Sara, Jaime and Alicia):

This year, we finished the race with a sprint over the last 200 meters, after having been joking about it all along the race. Even with that last rush, we added some more seconds to our record: this year it took us 1h12’17” to complete the 10km.

The time in this race is the less important aspect of it. As always, it is a pleasure to share a run through the centre of our home town with friends to give a healthy, funny and colorful farewell to the year. Be sure that next year we’ll be there to laugh, jog and beat our time!

(1) I took part in it for the first time in 1998, when less than 5,000 raced in it, and have always participated (not always inscribed though) except for 3 years (twice I spent New Year’s Eve in the Netherlands and other time I was injured).

Leave a comment

Filed under Sports