Airbus vs. Boeing, comparison of market forecasts

Airbus announced on Monday its latest Global Market Forecast (PDF, 4.6MB) for the 20-year period 2010-2029. Media has already highlighted the main points: ~26,000 new aircraft will be delivered with a market value of ~3,200bn$.

Some months ago, Boeing published its equivalent study, the Current Market Outlook (PDF, 8.2MB) for the same period.

It is interesting to compare the two of them. In that way we can see how each other treat competitors’ products (mainly A380) and how they try to shape the market and send messages to it (point-to-point & hub-spoke).

However, it is not easy to compare the studies as they use slightly different segmentations, disclose in different ways the value of aircraft for the segments (list prices) and is not always clear how to discount freighter aircraft from global figures. I dig for some time into those numbers and arrived to the following table:

Comparison of Airbus GMF and Boeing CMO 2010-2029.

Some comments on the comparison:

  • Boeing sees demand for 13% more aircraft with a 10% more value.
  • However, this higher demand is not applicable to all segments: Boeing sees ~60% less A380s or equivalent being delivered over the next 20 years, while 18% more single aisle (A320s) and 12% more twin aisle (A330/A350s).
  • Boeing plays down A380 potential, but sees a very similar number of RPKs (“revenue passenger kilometer”), that is, the number of paying passenger by the distance they are transported. Airbus forecasts for 2029 12.03 RPKs while Boeing forecasts 12.60 (in trillion).
  • The difference of less than 5% in RPKs means that out of the 13% difference in aircraft deliveries over 8% comes from the different business model each company is trying to push.
  • Finally, we can see that Boeing uses again higher average prices for smaller aircraft and a lower reference price for A380s.

Enjoy the two documents, differences apart, they gave a very good piece of information and insight about the market.

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Archaeologists

There is no doubt that archaeologists have done and continue to do a great and exhaustive work in Egypt… (yes, there is a “but” coming) But, while visiting several temples last week, I really got sick of seeing their signature in the middle of the statues, walls, hieroglyphics, etc…

Signatures from archaeologists ar various sites in Egypt.

Can you imagine that a conservator / restaurateur from the Louvre museum had just signed in the middle of La Gioconda while performing some work on the painting? Like: “L. Bernard, 1835” in the cheek or the forehead, where there is plenty of space.

I want to think that this was the norm in XIX and early XX century and that nowadays it is not happening, otherwise: archaeologists, please refrain from doing that!

As Luca put it: these were people who failed to understand their place in history. After all, to the general public Lecaros, Black, Hamdy Bey, Federici, Levinge, etc., are completely unknown names (luckily! imagine how many of their signatures and in what places would have been needed for them to be stars!).

Having said that… who knows, maybe around the year 5,464 someone visiting these places may find a plaque honouring these signatures, like the one that can be seen today in Saqqara outlining the first “graffiti” in history, yet another inscription from another archaeologist in the year 1,232 BC, Hadnakhte, who wrote, on the wall of an already then 1,500 years old building, the following: “on a pleasure trip west of Memphis”.

Hadnakhte's graffiti in the House of the South, Saqqara.

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The best (and the worst) of the first 100 posts

Today is a symbolic day for the blog: this is its 100th post.

I started the blog in February 2010 and about 15 posts ago I thought: “what could I write about for my 100th post?”.

A reflection: To be honest, after 100 posts I still haven’t got a clear idea of which post topics you, the readers, like more and which less. What do you think? In this post, I will just give you the list of the ten most read posts and the ten least read ones…

1. An aircraft worth its weight in gold?
2. FC Barcelona copying Real Madrid
3. A Kiva success story
4. Mi adiós a Ibercaja
5. Boeing forecast for A380
6. Most common letters in English and Spanish
7. TEDxMadrid 2010
8. Venture Capital & Crowdfunding
9. 3 wishes to Nosso Senhor do Bonfim
10. My flat-renting decision process

90. Giving feedback at Pixar
91. From climbing to merely walking
92. Sao Paulo from the top of Banespa building
93. How rain determines olive tree economics
94. Nothing like a good red wine…
95. Speech about Minifutbol
96. Three centuries of confusion
97. Opera with subtitles
98. Book review: Pirate Latitudes
99. Book review: La Hermandad de la Sabana Santa

Some stats from this period: over 5,700 visits (~18 per day), being the day I announced that I moved to Toulouse the most visited one.

Let’s see what I’ll write in the next 100 posts…

 

NOTE: the box in the right showing “Top Posts” shows the most read ones in the last week, not the all-time most read ones (the ones above).

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The first bloggers

I found while visiting some tombs in the Valley of the Kings and temples in Luxor that the Egyptian pharaohs were the first bloggers.

There are paintings older than the hieroglyphics from Egypt but, unless I am mistaken, we don’t know whether they just capture scenes of daily life/gods or relate to the story of a single individual (and in if that was the case, who is he?).

In the case of the pharaohs, they inscribed (or those working for them) in the walls and columns what had happened to the pharaoh in his life, apart from stories related to gods. Some months later or the next year they would come back and update it with the latest achievements (wars, victories, offers to different gods…).

Luckily, today we can just store our storyline (or whatever we may want to write about) in the internet and save ourselves the effort of gathering up to 134 columns as in the Great Hypostyle Hall in Karnak, Luxor (larger than St. Peter’s Basilica in Rome and St. Paul’s Cathedral in London together – some pictures below).

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Nuestra Señora de Loreto

Alguna vez le he dicho a Luca o a algún amigo a modo ilustrativo “con unas alas suficientemente grandes y un motor suficientemente potente se podría hacer volar a tu casa, otra cosa es que fuese eficiente”.

El 10 de diciembre tuvo lugar la conmemoración de Nuestra Señora de Loreto, la patrona de la aviación. Hace unos años encontré algo de información sobre ella y el origen de este patronazgo, que rescato en este post para vuestro deleite, en español e inglés (distintas fuentes), ya que no tiene desperdicio.

Como podéis ver, ya en el siglo XIII unos ángeles probaron mi teoría del primer párrafo con la casa que la Sagrada Familia tenía en Nazaret.

“[…] una antigua tradición que arranca del siglo XIII, según la cual la casa de Nazaret que vio nacer y crecer a la Virgen, y en la que vivió la Sagrada Familia, fue trasladada por los ángeles, primero a Dalmacia (Croacia) y después a Loreto (Italia), en tiempos del Papa Celestino V.”

Siglos más tarde vinieron los motores, los hermanos Wright, los ingenieros, la aviación comercial… la mejora de la eficiencia.

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Special assistance vs. free ride

This morning, at Cairo airport I found something I hadn’t seen since 2007 when I went to Moscow sometimes: passion for wheelchairs.

During the last week in Egypt, Luca and I have seen just 2 wheelchairs (in fact, she saw 2, I can only recall having seen one at Giza).

How many thousands of people we may have seen during this week? 1,000, 2,000, 10,000? No idea. But having been all day in the streets, museums, temples, etc., where there were crowds, I guess they were many. Let me use 2-3 thousands for simplification.

I know, this may be not a statistically relevant sample, but let me say there is a user of wheelchair per 1,000 inhabitants (there may be published stats on this out there; I didn’t check).

As you know, airline companies offer special assistance to get on board their aircraft. Yesterday, we found at the boarding gate 10 wheelchairs. We flew aboard a B777-200 with no more than 50-60% seats occupied, about 200-250 passengers. That is, 4-5% of passengers required special assistance in the form of a wheelchair.

As, I said, these are not statistically relevant samples, but these numbers bring to me some (provocative) thoughts:

  • At the airport we found 50 times more wheelchairs than in the outside world! That is what I call passion for them.
  • What is it so attractive in wheelchairs at airports? It’s a free ride (some body actually pushes it!), you get to avoid long queues and board first
  • Why don’t they all use wheelchair outside the airport? Nobody pushes it! The fact that streets and facilities are not adequately prepared might be a deterrent as well (just for people who can walk despite some difficulty).
  • It could happen that those flying are not the ones we found in touristic places and streets in Egypt… however, the factor of 50 is strikingly high to be explained only because of that, plus it would be strange for them to venture taking international flights and not wandering through the city.

Having said that, I’m totally in favour that this special assistance is provided because there will always be people who do need it. I wrote this post just out of surprise of seeing a queue of 10 wheelchairs, something I hadn’t seen in 3 years.

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Home

By now, most of you are aware that I moved recently to Toulouse. Some of you may have read about the process of finding my new flat.

I live in the Rue du Cimetière Saint-Cyprien, close to the city centre. Going back and for to work takes about 20 minutes, there is traffic as they say here, but nothing compared to larger cities.

My street.

The flat is what they call a T3; this is a living room plus 2 bedrooms. The kitchen is way larger than my cooking skills will ever ask for. It has an open-air private parking lot…

… but really, what makes me call it home is this view:

Sweet home.

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On top of my gift list

The other question I liked about this week’s Plinky email was:

“What’s at the top of your gift wish list right now?”

Normally I would almost always say “a trip, a holiday trip”. Since I have just moved to France, I came here 3 times in the last 3 weeks; I have been in Poland, Barcelona and The Netherlands in the last month as well… what do you think I would ask for?

Yes, yet another holiday trip: to refresh my mind, get a good pack of unforgettable moments, discover new places, etc… and the nice thing about this is: that I will get it! Right now a friend, my partner and I will go to Egypt for a week…

“À bientôt, Toulouse!”

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What charities do you support?

I got an email today from a source-of-ideas-for-blogs service called Plinky. Today’s email was a summary of the ideas for the last week. I liked 2 of those ideas; I’ll answer them, one per post.

“What charities do you support, and why?”

The first thought I had is “two: Kiva and Doctors without Borders (MSF)”. Then I developed the thought further: “Why?” The explanation that was going to follow is already written into another post, but thinking again about it made me realize that I only support one charity: MSF, as Kiva is not strictly speaking a charity.

Kiva gives a financial service, loans, to entrepreneurs that wouldn’t get them from commercial banks. The same situation happens with us: how many banks would not grant us a loan to start a company in Spain at the moment? If we found an investor, we would deem his action as an investment, a sound investment, not a charity act.

The charity act when lending money through Kiva is in fact the little donation you may choose to give to Kiva itself (to cover their operating costs) and the giving away the opportunity of earning some interest on that money… not much:

  • At the moment I put in Kiva ~250$ a year,
  • The interest I could get out of this would be ~4$ a year (if well invested may be 20$),
  • The 250$ may pay for about 12 loans of 25$ (assuming some of them will be repaid within that year and the money is re-loaned) and I generally give a 5% donation to Kiva on each loan… that is another 15$…

So out of these two concepts I give only 20$ to charities!

(Luckily I give some more to MSF… why? You can guess it)

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Master in common sense

What is the main thing you learn from studying an MBA? When I have been asked this question I always answer that the learning process is different: Most of the subjects present you with situations / cases that once solved you said to yourself “well, it was applied common sense, wasn’t it?” Yes, applied common sense to some situations you never encountered or reflected on before. This is one way you learn, the other is hearing from first hand hundreds of real stories experienced by your teachers.

It is not like learning to solve fluid dynamics or differential equations exercises… it is not that before you didn’t how to solve a problem and then you know it, at least this is how I felt at EOI. The learning process during the MBA is more like encouraging you to apply common sense to many issues, making you reflect on new topics from those that entertained you at university.

I tell this because after reading “How to win friends & influence people”, by Dale Carnegie, I felt the same.

I found that Dale Carnegie is a great story-teller and nothing is better to learn or reflect on different issues than seeing the application of solutions, skills or techniques in stories, real stories. Some of the ones in the book came from Abraham Lincoln, Benjamin Franklin, Roosevelt, Rockefeller, several American generals… and many others were stories from lay people like you and me.

I remember that one of my teachers in the MBA used to say “70% of your work within a company is just human relationships; and precisely that is not taught anywhere”.

The skill to deal with other humans effectively is so important that, as Dale Carnegie tells in the book, Charles Schwab was the first person to earn a million dollars a year (when 2.500$ a year was considered a good salary), when he was picked by Andrew Carnegie (no relation) to become the first president of United States Steel company in 1921… Why? As Charles put it: “I consider my ability to arouse enthusiasm among my people the greatest asset I possess, and the way to develop the best that is in a person is by appreciation and encouragement”. (We may argue whether he indeed deserved a salary hundreds of times higher than the average… I already discussed this when I commented other book in this blog).

Now, I leave you the different principles that Carnegie offers to improve your effectiveness when dealing with people (a rare animal indeed!), reflect on them:

Fundamental techniques in handling people:

  1. Don’t criticize, condemn or complain.
  2. Give honest and sincere appreciation.
  3. Arouse in the other person an eager want.

Six ways to make people like you:

  1. Become genuinely interested in other people.
  2. Smile.
  3. Remember that a person’s name is to that person the sweetest and most important sound in any language.
  4. Be a good listener. Encourage others to talk about themselves.
  5. Talk in terms of the other person’s interests.
  6. Make the other person feel important – and do it sincerely.

Win people to your way of thinking:

  1. The only way to get the best of an argument is to avoid it.
  2. Show respect for the other person’s opinions. Never say “You’re wrong”.
  3. If you are wrong, admit it quickly and emphatically.
  4. Begin in a friendly way.
  5. Get the other person saying “yes, yes” immediately.
  6. Let the other person do a great deal of the talking.
  7. Let the other person feel that the idea is his or hers.
  8. Try honestly to see things from the other person’s point of view.
  9. Be sympathetic with the other person’s ideas and desires.
  10. Appeal to the nobler motives.
  11. Dramatize your ideas.
  12. Throw down a challenge.

Be a leader:

  1. Begin with praise and hones appreciation.
  2. Call attention to people’s mistakes indirectly.
  3. Talk about your own mistakes before criticizing the other person.
  4. Ask questions instead of giving direct orders.
  5. Let the other person save face.
  6. Praise the slightest improvement and praise every improvement. Be “hearty in your approbation and lavish in your praise”.
  7. Give the other person a fine reputation to live up to.
  8. Use encouragement. Make the fault seem easy to correct.
  9. Make the other person happy about doing the thing you suggest.

“Obvious…” This is one thought that may come to our mind when reading some of these statements. However, we’re not acting in that way every day, being as obvious as they may be – thus getting the results we get…

I encourage you to read the book (~260 pgs.) and see in those stories many examples applicable to yourself; daily situations in which to apply those principles.

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