Reading language

In a previous post, Musings on objectives setting, I mentioned about reading:

I found that I am not that fast reader (in English and French and neither in Spanish!) nor all the books that I pick are that easy or short, so I linger every year around the 10 books.

BookShelfIn the second half of 2015 I was able to catch up with the objective by reading 2 books a month as intended. This demanded a rigorous approach, dedicating some time each night to reading (not that I didn’t enjoy it!).

I then reflected on the fact that of the last 8 books I read: 4 were in Spanish (plus 3 in English and 1 in French, a light novel by Saint-Exupéry). Did it help in that last reading rush that I read more books in Spanish than in 2014? In 2014 the mix of the books I read was 8 in English and 2 in Spanish. This reflection triggered the curiosity to find out the language mix of the books I read in the previous years, which I checked with the help of this blog (1). See below:

Booksperlanguage

I do not speak many languages, thus I cannot read all the books I read in their original languages (e.g. “The diary of a young girl” or “Crime and Punishment” lately). However, I try to read books in their original language when the authors write in English, Spanish or French, with few exceptions (normally due to availability of a book). When I cannot read one in the original language, I assume that the different translations to the languages I understand are as good (2) and I normally chose the Spanish version to ease the reading.

Seeing the mix above, in the last 6 years I have read more than three times as many books in English than in Spanish. This was intentional, since over a decade ago, in order to keep learning, improving, and to exercise the mind (3). I considered that each book I read in English (or now in French) met two objectives in one: using a different language and reading. It is only now that I reflect that by pushing myself to this exercise I might be reading a bit less than I could if I read always in Spanish, but I am happy with the mix and I think I will keep up with that policy.

I wonder whether you have similar reading language mixes or policies, feel free to comment below if you like.

(1) Either in a specific post about each year’s personal reading list or in the personal summary of each year provided some info of the books I read. However, in 2011 and 2010 I relied on a then available feature of LinkedIn which enabled you to track and comment books read, not active anymore. I retrieved some info of what books I read in those years via the book reviews I made in the blog but I was not able to retrieve all books from 2010 (over a dozen vs 11 I am able to track now).

(2) This may be a bold assumption, but I never go that far as to knowing or researching about how good translators are (may be I should!).

(3) Similar reasons are behind the fact of writing most of the posts in the blog in English: exercising, learning and improving, plus reaching a much wider audience (including foreign in-laws and friends).

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Musings on objectives setting

A few days ago, I had a short Twitter exchange with a couple of friends on  objectives. Sara mentioned that she was not setting objectives for the New Year. Nacho made a point of my objective tracking approach, which I detailed in a post in the blog back in 2011 (Personal mid-year review). Unfortunately (or fortunately) I do not follow such a thorough approach anymore (1), though I do set myself some personal yearly objectives, have them noted down, track them, etc.

In that post from 2011, I made reference to a previous post in which I commented on a HBR study and a post post by Sid Savara. The main takeaways from those readings were: have the goals in written, have plans towards achieving them and share the objectives with someone (at least with someone you have confidence with, not necessarily with everyone!).

In this post I quickly wanted to share some examples of the objectives I set to myself (2):

  • Reading: as I mentioned in a previous post in which I shared a summary of (my) 2015, I set myself a minimum objective of reading 10 books a year. I do not read any book for the sake of meeting the objective. It is rather that I have dozens of very much dear books in the shelves waiting to be read and I keep buying (and grabbing from my parents’ home) books that I think would teach me something or add some value. Ideally, I would like to read about 2 books a month. That would make over 20 books in a year, however, during some periods along a year I read less often, I found that I am not that fast reader (in English and French and neither in Spanish!) nor all the books that I pick are that easy or short, so I linger every year around the 10 books. Do I share the objective? Up to now, not explicitly, though I force myself to write at least a yearly post commenting the books I have read… thus, I do have to read them! Follow up: it is not very structured, though I know at any moment the books I have read along the year (I keep a record) and every now and then make some numbers of pages to be read per day, per week, in order to complete this or that book at a given point in time.
  • Writing: here I always remember a tip from Conor Neill, a professor at IESE, who says that we should strive to write something everyday, at least 500 words (see the blog post where he explains the benefits of doing so, Writing to reflect. Mindful leadership). In my case, apart from job emails, files, presentations…, I do not write (and reflect on) for this blog (or any other format) on personal interests everyday. Ever since I started the blog, back in February 2010, I intended to write regularly. What does that mean? Initially I aimed at publishing 8 posts per month, I lowered this target lately to about 6 posts per month. That would make about 70 a year. In 2015 I just met that target. Previously I had always been above 80 posts. See below the monthly production.

Blog post per month

Blog post per year

  • Speaking: on this front I was very consistent when I joined Toastmasters in December 2007, trying to give a public speech every two months. I kept being quite engaged until more or less mid 2012. I then dropped Toastmasters until I re-engaged myself in mid 2014 at the corporate club of Airbus in Toulouse. I am now trying to figure out the pace at which the club attendance allows and I am able to prepare myself to speak often (by speaking I refer to giving prepared speeches, as every two weeks in the club almost everyone gets to speak either with a role of evaluator, in table topics, etc). Thus, a vague objective (speaking regularly), not quantified, not yet in written, though shared.
  • Flying: for this objective scheduling is key. As I mentioned in the post where I shared my path to the private pilot license (PPL), it took me 4 years to obtain it mainly due to the difficulty in finding slots. From March 2015 (once I had passed the theoretical exam) I was more rigorous, always trying to have at least two slots scheduled with the instructor and airplanes booked at any point in time. This enabled that, even if many slots had to be cancelled due to weather conditions (or any other issue), I was more regular with the flying, I managed to obtain the license and fly over 19 hours. For the 2016, the goal is clear: to fulfil the requirements to maintain the license, that is 12 flight hours with 6 take offs and landings in the last 6 months prior to the license expiry date. On top of that, in order to carry passengers it is required to have completed 3 take offs and landings in the previous 90 days. Thus, the requirements by law help you in aiming at flying often. On the other hand, I was trained to fly on Robin DR 400 airplanes and another objective I have is to learn to fly another model, Diamond DA20 in order to have more flexibility with the scheduling of airplanes and be able to fly oftenhow often is often? At least a flight per month (ideally 2), about 2 flight hours a month… this objective, then, is well followed up with the aeroclub scheduling tools, navigation logs, etc.
  • Running: with the running I have many and varied objectives. From running (e.g.) 2,000 km in a year, to completing at least 2 marathons a year, to beating personal best times (PBs) in different distances (10k, half marathon and marathon), to other miscellanea objectives (e.g. running x days in a given week, y kilometres in a given week or month, running some special race, running a number of days while on holidays…). For the completion of marathons and aiming at PBs I do schedule training plans at the online tool provided by Garmin (the provider of the GPS watch I use). Thus, the objectives are clearly defined, shared (with Luca, colleagues, in social media) and well followed up.

And it is here that I wanted to stress on the definition of the goal, its writing and its sharing. I will take the objective “running 2,000 km”. In 2014 I started to publish online in Twitter regularly both the goal and how I was progressing.

With the online tool I have the objective clearly written down and tracked, I know whether I am ahead or behind, the weekly or monthly mileage needed to attain the goal, etc. The sharing of the goal in my inner circles helps with the finding slots to run. The sharing of the goal more widely encourages and pushes oneself. See below how I reached the objective in 2015. You can see that while the training towards Seville (February) and Madrid (April) marathons lasted I was well ahead the reference. After those marathons took place I fell behind, even if I only fully stopped for a week after Madrid marathon. I kept running below the reference weekly mileage until the end of June, when I was 70km behind… I then subscribed for Millau (September) and started building up mileage for it, then extended the training up to Toulouse marathon (October), stopped only 3 days after it and, since then, I always was around or over the reference to attain the goal (even if I had to stop for over a week at the end of November due to a cold that got me down with severe throat ache).

Running mileage 2015 progression

***

It is clear that each one has a different approach and there is not a single one that fits us all. Many will not want to be constrained by fixed goals, nor be reminded of them by having them written, even less sharing some goal they are unsure to meet, not to talk about publishing it on social media! This is just how I go about trying to meet some personal objectives.

(1) At least not for every objective and plotting a global indicator.

(2) These goals are easy to share others are kept in the inner circles.

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San Silvestre 2015

Fifteenth participation (1) in the popular San Silvestre Vallecana on New Year’s Eve.

The team this time was composed by some 8 friends (Nacho, me, Pablo, Maicol, Carlos, Sara, Jaime and Alicia):

https://twitter.com/soler_bravo/status/682661492689342464

This year, we finished the race with a sprint over the last 200 meters, after having been joking about it all along the race. Even with that last rush, we added some more seconds to our record: this year it took us 1h12’17” to complete the 10km.

The time in this race is the less important aspect of it. As always, it is a pleasure to share a run through the centre of our home town with friends to give a healthy, funny and colorful farewell to the year. Be sure that next year we’ll be there to laugh, jog and beat our time!

(1) I took part in it for the first time in 1998, when less than 5,000 raced in it, and have always participated (not always inscribed though) except for 3 years (twice I spent New Year’s Eve in the Netherlands and other time I was injured).

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Summary of (my) 2015

Brief recap of my 2015. (1)

In the last year recap I mentioned about the coming 2015 that it would be “a year full of personal and professional changes, with plenty of learning opportunities, kilometres to run, marathons to enjoy, airplanes to fly and flights to catch, museums to see, books to read, trips to make and parties to enjoy“. Let’s see:

Family..

Family.

The main events of the year:

  • We are expecting a second child! (a boy)
  • I switched jobs (always within Airbus).
  • I passed both theoretical and practical exams and am now a private pilot!

Having said that: the personal objectives for 2015 are fully accomplished. Now, let’s review the year in more detail.

Avgeek. Believe it or not, this year I visited as many zoos than aerospace museums. But this is only because Andrea is as keen on seeing animals as on seeing airplanes. We visited the museum Espace air passion in Angers, the exhibition Pasion por Volar at ABC museum in Madrid, we visited Ailes Anciennes in Toulouse. Together with my engineering school colleague Serna and thanks to the kindness of several work colleagues we visited several of Airbus facilities in Toulouse (including simulators, telemetry room, iron birds, A380 FAL, etc).


DA20Flying
. As mentioned above, this 2015 has been the year in which I passed both theoretical and practical exams and finally became a private pilot! I managed to complete some 16 flights totalling over 19 flight hours33 take-offs and landings and including 5 solo flights (see here an account with my path to the PPL) and 2 flights already as captain (alone and with the family).

If I recall it well, this year only my former colleague Ruth had her baptism regarding flying with me at the controls. I am sure that in 2016 that will be the case with many more friends.

On top of that we made an unforgettable excursion with my friend Rapha and other colleagues from the Aviation Society to visit the Castles of the Loire Valley. We were about to make another one to Menorca island, but the weather forced us to cancel that one at the very last minute.

2015 Flight Hours.

2015 Flight Hours.

Reading. This year again I didn’t set any objectives in terms of number of books, but I only prepared a shelf with a selection of about 20 books that I wanted to prioritize. I started well the first month and finished the year at a decent pace  of 2 books per month, but reading “The spirit of Saint Louis” by Charles Lindbergh took me ages. In the end, together with that, I read 11 books: “Profiles in Courage” (by J.K. Kennedy), “El arte de ser padres” (by F. Dodson), “El general en su laberinto” (by G. Garcia-Marquez), “Diary” (by Anne Frank), “Pensar con Arte” (by M. Conthe), “España 3.0: Necesitamos resetear el pais” (in Spanish), “Lee” (by D. Southall Freeman), “Common stocks and uncommon profits and Other Writings” (by P. A. Fisher), “The gospel of wealth and other timely essays“ (by Andrew Carnegie), “Vol de nuit“ (by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry). See a post I wrote about my 2015 reading list.

Learning. This year, I have not taken any online open MOOCs but plenty (10+) of Airbus internal online trainings and some class ones (People make the difference (↑), Finance for non financiers (↓, too basic)).

Since switching jobs in July I started using French continuously at work (which wasn’t the case before even if working in France!). In 2016, what I will take on (again) is Dutch, this time joining a small group of students to get formal training!

Family 2.0. Despite of the family life and different changes, I managed to write just about 70 posts, though a bit less regularly. The blog received just over 45,000 visits in 2015 (less than in 2014 though) and is very close to reaching the 250,000 since I started it in 2010.

On top of that, Luca created a new professional website to offer her services as a lawyer in France (take a look here). Andrea hasn’t yet started her own blog.

DSC_0124Travelling. This year we visited Sevilla and Madrid (to take part in both marathons), the Loire Valley, stayed with friends for a week in Mallorca, made an escapade to San Sebastian and Biarritz to meet our friends from Brazil, made a 2-week tour around Spain (covering Madrid, Ubeda, Baeza, Sevilla, Huelva, Merida, Madrid, Valencia, Gandia, Murcia, Barcelona… driving some 4,500 kilometres in those two weeks). We visited the Netherlands (three times, about a week each time). Made some more escapades to Andorra, Montauban, Montpellier, Nimes, Arles, La Camargue, Millau…

Again, those were the leisure trips; on top of that, the job made me go to Madrid another 10-12 times (?), that made it tiresome and difficult to combine with other things but gave my plenty of opportunities to see my family, friends and to run in the Retiro park… however, that changed since I switched jobs in July 🙂

Sports Running. Again, this year, apart from a day in which I went skiing and some more of swimming, what I did was basically plenty of running.

DSC_0177In 2015 I have run over 2,000 kilometres, which was a goal I set to myself at the beginning of the year (setting a new yearly record surpassing the 2019km achieved in 2013). I competed in some 11 races (versus 9 in 2014) including: 3 marathons (Madrid (my 3rd participation in it), Toulouse (my second) and Sevilla (where I had the bitter experience of quitting for the first time)), another 100km-long ultramarathon (Millau again, this time with Jaime), a half marathon (Blagnac, where I set my new personal best time in the distance!), a trail (Ronde des Foies Gras, with a new personal best time) and some three 10k and the Course the Noel in Toulouse over 8.5 km.

Following a mantra I keep to letter “the running shoes, always in the suitcase”, the year 2015 caught me running in: Wijchen (10 times), Sevilla (4), Mallorca (6), Madrid (5), Gandia (3), Torrelodones (6), Andorra (1), Millau, Mauvezin plus the tens of times I trained in Toulouse and Blagnac.

2015 running monthly "mileage".

2015 running monthly “mileage”.

Other reasons for joy in 2015 have been:

  • My family: My sister completed her internship at  the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence (in Vilnius, Lithuania), then moved back to Madrid and she completed her thesis for the master she did in Odense (Denmark). We had the pleasure to have my mother again for a couple of weeks during summertime, when she found the time among the many clients of her massaging operation (here). My brother switched jobs and is back in Seville enjoying the high pace job at the last stages of A400M deliveries (we both visited him and had him visiting us in September). My father, enjoying is condition as retired, is ever more engaged with luncheons, conferences, reading, re-learning about electrical motors and construction activities at home.
  • Some more friends got married: Loreto and Jose.
  • And we welcome some newborns from family and friends: Martin (in fact, his was a last-minute arrival in 2014), Tim, Felice, Vera, Amelie, Victoria, Elena…

Now it’s time to rest, celebrate and soon to plan how we want the 2016 to turn out. It will include the welcoming of the baby (“two is more than the double of one” they say), an early trip to Brazil, lots of flying and running, Dutch lessons, some books to read, museums to see, trips to enjoy… For now, I will close 2015 celebrating my sister’s birthday, running the San Silvestre Vallecana in Madrid with several friends and enjoying a last dinner with the family.

I wish you the best for 2016, enjoy it!

Flight 2015.11

(1) You can see my 20102011, 2012 , 2013 and 2014 recaps.

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My 2015 reading list

In this post I wanted to share the list of books I read along the year (1) with a small comment for each one (2), links to Wikipedia articles about the book (if available) and to the authors (in case you want to read about them). I have also included a small rating from one to three “+” depending on how much do I recommend its reading:

  1. DSC_0342Profiles in Courage (by John F. Kennedy) (++): written by then senator Kennedy when he was convalescent from a back surgery in the 1950s, this book analyzes the context, figures and controvert decisions made by 8 different US senators mainly from the XIX century (from John Quincy Adams, Daniel Webster… to Robert A. Taft), decisions that were not popular at the time in their constituencies but the politicians understood were needed to be taken and demanded courage to do so. For this book Kennedy obtained a Pulitzer prize in 1957. From the analysis, Kennedy extracts some lessons in the last chapter that are well encapsulated in the following dilemma: “[…] the loyalties of every Senator are distributed among his party, his state and section, his country and his conscience. On party issues his party loyalties are normally controlling. In regional disputes, his regional responsibilities will likely guide his course. It is on national issues, on matters of conscience which challenge party and regional loyalties, that the test of courage is presented.” 
  2. “El arte de ser padres” (by Fitzhugh Dodson) (++): a loan from my parents to help us in the quest of upbringing our daughter, the book, written in the late 1970s, did help in removing weight from some situations when the child was at the turn of being 2 years old. Among other things, it teaches you to get more relaxed, laid-back, not to enter into conflict trying to impose things, etc. It was also interesting to see how society and some social conventions have changed from the 1970s to today (e.g. drinking and smoking during pregnancy).
  3. TheSpiritOfStLouisThe Spirit of Saint Louis (by Charles A. Lindbergh) (++): this autobiographic book describes one of the great adventures of the XX century, the first non-stop flight across the Atlantic ocean in May 1927. For this book Lindbergh received a Pulitzer prize in 1954. The beginning of the book covers the days of Lindbergh working for the postal service of Robertson Aircraft Corporation and how he gets engaged into the race of who would be the first pilot(s) to cross the ocean. He later describes the conception, development and testing of the Ryan aircraft he flew for the feat. He finally gives a detailed account of the 33h30′ flight; hour by hour, alone, squeezed in his seat, with scarce food and water supplies, cold, flying day (within the clouds at times) and night, thrilling and semi-unconscious (asleep) at times, until he lands in Le Bourget. I wrote a post review the book, find it here.
  4. El General en su Laberinto (by Gabriel García Márquez) (+): this book is a novel trying to figure out how the last days of the Venezuelan revolutionary Simon Bolivar were. The characters, trips, locations, etc., are real. The dialogues, thoughts, feelings, are the work of Garcia Marquez. As always with Garcia Marquez, there are very vivid dialogues and reflections in the book by way of its characters, however this wasn’t the book I liked the most from him. On the hand, to get a better feeling and description of the last days of a person I very much preferred for the uneasiness it puts you as a reader The Death of Ivan Ilyich by Tolstoy.
  5. Pensar con Arte (by Manuel Conthe) (++): this book shows how our minds work in their way of thinking with their biases and the situations that may arise. The concepts covered are similar to other books that I have read in the past (Thinking Fast and Slow, Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger or Poor Charlie’s Almanack), the originality here comes from the parallels and connections that the author brings and offers with the arts (literature, paint, cinema, music…), showing examples from different art craft.
  6. España 3.0: Necesitamos resetear el pais (by Javier Santiso) (+++): this book is call for action, for change, for resetting Spain into a country which bases its economy and growth on innovation, education and technology. It starts by offering a rather harsh and in my opinion good diagnostic of many of the ailments of the country. Then shows how several things do work in the country and how in previous occasions the country has raised up to similar challenges and it can and has to do so again. The sooner the better.
  7. The Diary of a young Girl (by Anne Frank) (++): the diary of a 13-year-old girl when she starts writing it and 15-year-old when it finishes, Anne Frank describes how she, her family and some others live day by day in hiding from the Nazis. Throughout the book there are many comments, appreciations, worries, misunderstandings, etc., very typical of that age. Despite of that, at some points of the book Anne provides a great example of resilience, attitude and hope: e.g. at times she reflects that all in all she cannot complain, she doesn’t lose time and imposes onto herself a rigorous studying and reading time schedules, etc. In that extent, her attitude and the diary reminded me of another book I have often seen recommended that I must read, “Man’s Search for Meaning” by Viktor Frankl, a jew imprisoned at a concentration camp.
  8. LeeLee (by Douglas Southall Freeman abridged version by Richard Harwell) (++): this is the biography of Rober E. Lee the general of the Army of Northern Virginia on the Confederate side during the US civil war. The book covers from the origins of the family, the birth and early education of Lee, his days at West Point where he specialized as an US army engineer, and how as the different states start seceding and viewing that his allegiance shall remain to Virginia he resigns from the US army. The book then describes the different battles, the style of Lee during the war and the surrender at Appomattox. Then it covers his final years as president of the Washington college in Lexington. For the extended version of this biography, Douglas Southall Freeman received a Pulitzer prize in 1935.
  9. commonstocksCommon stocks and uncommon profits and Other Writings (by Philip A. Fisher) (++): a classic book about investing strongly recommended by many, among others Warren Buffett. The first edition was written in 1950s, the edition I read dates from the 1970s and includes some reflections of what he wrote in the first one. The main contribution of the book is what the author calls the scuttlebutt (rumor, gossip) technique, that is the thorough research ground work an
    investor must make before investing in any stock by way of talking to sales men of competitor companies, customers, experts on the field, academics, management of the company, etc., and which he summarizes in 15 points. A quick takeaway from the book is that, if you lack the time to thoroughly proceed with the scuttlebutt, it might be better to leave for others, who have, the task of picking your stocks. The Other Writings included in the book relate to what is and how it was developed his investment philosophy and on whether the markets are efficient.
  10. The gospel of wealth and other timely essays (by Andrew Carnegie) (++): In the main essay of the book (The Gospel of Wealth), Carnegie, discusses the moral obligation of the wealthy to redistribute their wealth in life back to the society. He positions himself against charity and offers several options that would have a great impact in lifting those among the poor willing to work in their own progress: funding of educational institutions, hospitals, libraries, parks, monuments, etc. Other essays relate to whether the United States (the Republic) should or not follow the path of Britain in having colonies and dependencies (in relation to the Philippines), a speech explaining the arrangements of the American constitution, critiques on proposals for free trade agreements between Britain and its colonies, etc. A good review of business and politics at the end of the XIX century.
  11. Vol de nuit (“Night Flight”, by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry) (++):  in Saint-Exupéry’s second novel he describes the operations of an air mail business based in Buenos Aires and with aircraft incoming from different locations in South America. The book describes the difficulties of night flight at the time and of developing this new type of service. One particular flight under cyclonic conditions will put into question the whole operation and the different characters, the pilot, her wife, the line operations’ chief, radio operators, etc.

(1) You can find here: my 2012 reading list, 2013 (embedded in my summary of 2013) and 2014 ones.

(2) In this 2015 I have not written many dedicated posts about the books I have read (just one about the The Spirit of St. Louis), but I do not discard making a review of some of them in the future.

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Análisis comparado sobre el acierto de mi pronóstico de las elecciones generales 2015

Ayer se celebraron las elecciones generales al congreso de España. Los resultados, conocidos por todos, ya con el escrutinio acabado han sido los siguientes:

Resultados elecciones generales 2015.

Resultados elecciones generales 2015.

La madrugada del viernes al sábado publiqué un post con el pronóstico que yo hacía para estas elecciones. Muestro aquí de nuevo el resumen con la distribución de escaños en el arco parlamentario.

 

Como quedaría el arco parlamentario.

Como quedaría el arco parlamentario.

En este post quería simplemente examinar la bondad de dicho pronóstico. Para ello, en primer lugar quería compararlo con otros pronósticos que se han hecho en estas fechas. En la tabla de debajo, muestro una compilación de pronósticos con el resultado final a la izquierda. El código de color lo añado para ver donde aciertan y fallan cada uno de los pronósticos. Si el resultado cae dentro del margen que se indica lo doy por bueno (verde, independientemente de cómo de grande es el margen), si el resultado se desvía del margen por un solo escaño lo marco en amarillo, si se desvía por dos o más escaños lo dejo en rojo (como muy “desviado”) (1).

Comparativa de encuestas electorales vs resultados.

Comparativa de encuestas electorales vs resultados.

En la tabla se puede ver que de los 4 grandes partidos en 3 de ellos el resultado se encuentra del pronóstico que hice y con Podemos me desvié en 1 escaño. Todos los otros pronósticos tienen al menos a dos partidos (si no los cuatro) completamente fuera de los márgenes. Con quien más se han columpiado todos es con Ciudadanos, a quienes prácticamente todos daban resultados muy por encima de los obtenidos. Igualmente a Podemos prácticamente le daban todos menos de 64 escaños (excepto GESOP, que se pasó por encima en más de 10). A PP varios le daban bastante por debajo de 120 escaños. Es el PSOE el que mejor predijeron en general, aunque dos encuestas le daban un hundimiento bastante más pronunciado.

Por otro, sobre esta comparación quería indicar que la famosa cocina del CIS tampoco es tan tendenciosa como a veces se quiere hacer ver (2). Al partido del gobierno le ha dado justo en el centro. Al PSOE lo tiene prácticamente en el margen. Y es a Ciudadanos y Podemos donde los tiene cruzados, como las otras encuestas excepto GESOP.

Por último, tengo la impresión de que en las cocinas al voto indeciso lo tienden a ver como más de cambio de lo que realmente es (3).

Una vez comparadas las encuestas y visto que mi pronóstico efectivamente fue mucho más certero, quería ver cómo de certero fue en términos absolutos. Para ello he recopilado los resultados provincia por provincia para poder comparar la desviación o no que tiene el pronóstico para cada partido. Ello se ve en las siguientes 3 tablas: pronóstico, resultados y corrección.

Pronóstico detallado.

Pronóstico detallado.

Resultados detallados por provincia.

Resultados detallados por provincia.

Correccion_por_provincia

Corrección del prónostico con resultados por provincia y partido.

 

En la corrección he usado el mismo código de colores: verde cuando el resultado estaba dentro de lo pronosticado, amarillo si me equivoqué en 1 escaño para ese partido (introduciendo un naranja cuando ese error supone pasar de estar representado a no estarlo o viceversa) y rojo cuando me equivoco en 2 o más escaños.

En total, en la tabla hay unas 280 predicciones a hacer: 223 correctas (si bien prácticamente 50 son darle un cero a IU en las provincias donde se presenta, todas), 53 errores de un escaño (19 de los cuales suponen cambio en la representación), 3 errores de 2 o más escaños.

Debajo incluyo un par de gráficas donde se puede ver de un vistazo lo descrito arriba. Por partido y provincia acierto en un 80%. Por provincia, prácticamente el 50% están predichas correctamente para todos los partidos.

Analisis por partido y provincia.

Análisis por partido y provincia.

Análisis por provincia.

Análisis por provincia.

Finalmente, en el post donde incluí el pronóstico indicaba que las dos castillas parecían fáciles de predecir, no así Cataluña, Galicia y País Vasco. Efectivamente, de largo es en Cataluña donde más errores he tenido. Castilla y León ha salido bastante bien. Y en Castilla La Mancha tuve algún error más de los esperado (escaños a Ciudadanos). (4)

(1) El hecho de usar una desviación de 1 o 2 para distinguir entre poco y muy desviado es totalmente arbitrario. De hecho, podría haber cogido como “poco desviado” hasta 5 escaños, y mi pronóstico seguiría siendo igual de mejor que los otros, pero he querido coger 1 porque así es el mismo código de colores que uso en este mismo artículo un poco después para ver el acierto provincia a provincia y partido a partido. Y ahí, sí, no se puede suponer que desviarse por más de 1 escaño es “poca” desviación.

(2) No en vano, la última encuesta del CIS se realiza sobre 17.000 muestras, esto es un orden de magnitud de las ~800, ~1200, 2800, etc., que usan las otras.

(3) En mi opinión mejor harían en pensar en ese voto como una regresión a la media de lo ya visto en elecciones anteriores.

(4) En la tabla se puede ver que en la Comunidad Valenciana he coloreado todas las casillas en verde a pesar de haber números en Podemos y Compromís. Esto es debido a que en el momento de hacer el pronóstico no era consciente de que de hecho iban juntos. Y le di a cada uno la representación que creía que iban a tener. La suma de ambas representaciones pronosticadas es igual al resultado del conjunto. Esto ha sido posible en parte gracias a que Valencia es una circunscripción grande y el error en no agruparlas no ha hecho que mi pronóstico perdiese escaños de Podemos.

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To my old GPS watch

photo (5)A few days ago I picked my new running watch which incorporates a GPS (1). The previous one, a Garmin 405 Forerunner was a present from Jaime and Luca back in the Christmas period of 2010 to 2011.

At that time, I had then just moved to Toulouse and they thought that it would be a good gift to incentivize the expressed wish to take on running again. And how it worked! With the new watch I started to measure some running tracks, track my heart beats, beat my personal records, record every run, run plenty of races, race and train with friends…

In just half a year I lost about 20 kilos and completed about 900km. Never before I had run so often so constantly. It helped me to run firstly slower focusing on the heart and then faster focusing on the pace. It helped to introduce tempo and series sessions in the training.

weight

In these 5 years, wearing the watch almost at every run (2), pacing myself with it, making numbers in my head about rhythms, times, kilometres, etc., I have completed over 9,000 km, more than 50 races, including 10 marathons and 2 ultras.

stats

Since the last summer it started to work faulty. Sometimes it switched itself off, it re-started by itself, it didn’t recharge the battery well… The last time it recorded well a complete activity was on October 29th, when we ran together 7km, just 4 days after having completed the Toulouse marathon. Maybe it needed more time to rest.

Rest in pace.

(1) A Garmin Forerunner 220.

(2) Except for having for some times in which I forgot it or its battery went out.

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Mi pronóstico de las elecciones generales de España de 2015

Con la ocasión de las elecciones generales en España el próximo domingo 20 de diciembre, quería aprovechar para hacer un pronóstico de las mismas como ejercicio de aprendizaje (1).

En un principio quería haber producido el pronóstico a partir de utilizar, de chequear algunas encuestas de alguna empresa demoscópica en particular con las elecciones generales de 2011, contrastarlas después con los resultados, y sacar algún tipo de factores de corrección. Y hacer lo mismo con las autonómicas de 2011/2012 y 2015. Pero cuando me puse a ver las encuestas de las generales no se daba el detalle de porcentajes de voto por partido y circunscripción. Por ello tuve que desechar esa metodología.

Finalmente, he ido comparando los resultados de generales de 2011, y las dos últimas autonómicas, y viendo la tendencia me he ayudado de alguna encuesta en algunos casos (2). Aclarar que el ejercicio no se trata de una encuesta (no he ido llamando a nadie), ni de una media de encuestas (3).

Como he dicho antes, cuando una encuesta nos dice “el PP va a conseguir un 26% y entre 110-116 escaños” nos da un resultado que se compone de la suma de muchas provincias, que no nos sirve para ver que va a pasar en nuestra provincia en particular. El CIS sin embargo, ofrece una encuesta con hasta 17 mil encuestados, donde indica su estimación de reparto de escaños por provincias y de porcentajes de voto globales (4). Y esa visión, mucho más completa es la que quería replicar con este ejercicio.

Como recordatorio: en España tenemos 52 circunscripciones (provincias más Ceuta y Melilla) que aportan desde 1 diputado (Ceuta y Melilla) a 36 (Madrid). El total son 350 y la mayoría absoluta se consigue con 176 escaños. Dicho esto, la tabla y la gráfica siguientes resumen todo el trabajo:

Como quedaría el arco parlamentario.

Como quedaría el arco parlamentario.

Pronóstico detallado.

Pronóstico detallado.

Por otro lado, el censo se compone de algo más de 36,4 millones de electores. De ellos 34,5 son residentes en España. De ellos, he supuesto que la participación es de un 75% (uniforme en todo el país por simplificación; aunque no lo será).

A los casi 2 millones de electores residentes en el extranjero los he despreciado para la estimación de números totales de votos obtenidos por cada partido. No los he despreciado porque lo haga el gobierno con el arduo tramite del voto rogado, sino porque la participación será mucho menor (fue menor del 10% en 2011) y como se reparte en las 52 circunscripciones es muy difícil que decida el signo de un escaño (5).

Con todo ello he supuesto que votan casi 26 millones de personas. Con unos 25.1 millones de votos a partidos (excluyendo blancos y nulos). Con los porcentajes de voto indicados arriba, los votos totales obtenidos por los principales partidos serían:

  • PP: 6,65 millones
  • PSOE: 5,67 millones
  • Podemos (6): 4,53 millones
  • Cs: 3,18 millones
  • IU/UP: 0,9 millones

Una vez compartido el pronóstico, no voy a hacer ningún análisis del mismo, dado que puede estar muy o poco equivocado; mejor esperar a tener los resultados reales.

(1) Ya en 2011, tras las elecciones generales hice el ejercicio de repartir con distintos métodos (proporcional vs D’Hondt, circunscripciones provinciales vs única…) y el ejercicio me resultó útil.

(2) Por ejemplo, en las dos Castillas parece no muy difícil hacer un pronóstico en cuanto reparto de escaños a partir de los últimos resultados y su evolución. Sin embargo, en Cataluña, Galicia o País Vasco no es nada sencillo.

(3) Ver por ejemplo los que hace Kiko Llaneras aquí.

(4) Ver más abajo las tablas del CIS. La fuente aquí.

(5) Sobre esto se ha escrito ya. En otro momento buscaré la referencia y la añadiré aquí.

(6) Incluyendo En Comú, Compromís y En Marea.

CIS_porcentajes CIS_detalle

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Toulouse marathon (2015)

Last October 25th, I ran the Toulouse marathon. It was the second time I completed this race; the first one being in 2011, then the first marathon I had run since 2001.

This year, like in 2011, I ran the Toulouse marathon after having run the 100 km of Millau one month before. In fact, I only decided to take part in it 2 months before the race. The main driver: within the programme I am working on in Airbus since July (A330neo), the marathon of Toulouse had been taken as a big collective well-being activity. Over 80 people from different teams ran the race; which can be completed in relays (teams of 4 runners where each one runs about 10km) (1) and individually.

At the end of August, running about 50 kilometres per week as training for Millau, even if not doing tempo and series training sessions, I decided that I could fairly run the Toulouse marathon after Millau, if I sustained no major injuries and did not care much about the time. So I subscribed.

The day before the marathon we had a photo session, distribution of A330neo t-shirts especially made for the occasion and the traditional pasta party on the eve of marathons. This one was a somewhat elegant dinner, consisting of buffet with different salad, pasta and desert options, organized at the top floor of the Mediatheque in Toulouse, with live performance of a flamenco group.

The race itself went rather well. In the weeks beforehand, I had been considering the starting pace: whether to go for a 5’20” per km or faster. The first pace leads to a marathon of about 3h45′ (a time around which I had already completed some and was comfortable with). After some testing training sessions I decided to be conservative and go with the 3h45′ pacers as long as I could keep up with them.

… and so I did until the kilometre 35. It was therefore a rather pleasant race. Always keeping myself to the rhythm set by the pacers, enjoying the route along the far North neighbourhoods of Toulouse, the music bands, etc. Entering back to the centre of the city, at about the km 33 I started to feel that the pace took more effort to keep and at the km 35 I decided to let go, and run the last 7 km, through the centre (the boulevards, the Jardin de plants, Alsace – Lorraine…) at a more comfortable pace. I estimated that in those last 7 kilometres I would not lose much more than a couple of minutes, that would not make any difference (it wouldn’t anyway be my best time nor the second in the distance).

Pace followed during the race.

Pace followed during the race.

In the end I completed the marathon in 3h47’13”, my fifth best time, the 4th time I finished in the time bracket between 3h44’30” and 3h47’13”. Thirteenth marathon completed (2).

Finisher diplome.

Finisher diploma.

Find below pictures of myself and of the A330neo team:
TLS

EVE-957-03-20151025-AT-MARATHON DE TOULOUSE-158

(1) I took that option of running the marathon in relay in the year 2013 as a preparation towards Athens marathon.

(2) See all the others in the section Races from the blog.

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Bárcenas, la película.

Hace una semana finalmente pude ver “B, la película”, que es la adaptación al cine de una obra de teatro del mismo nombre sobre el interrogatorio que el juez Pablo Ruz hizo al extesorero y exgerente del Partido Popular Luis Bárcenas el 15 de julio de 2013.

La película, dirigida por David Ilundain y protagonizada por Pedro Casablanc (Bárcenas) y Manolo Soto (Ruz), dura aproximadamente 1 hora y 20 minutos y está basada en hechos reales, la transcripción del propio interrogatorio. En ese interrogatorio Bárcenas se retracta de sus anteriores declaraciones y confiesa que los famosos “papeles de Bárcenas” publicados por El País y El Mundo son verídicos, se corresponden a apuntes contables suyos durante 20 años como tesorero y gerente del partido, reflejan los movimientos de la caja B del partido, la continua financiación ilegal del mismo, el pago ilegal de sobresueldos a los cargos del partido (incluyendo Mariano Rajoy), etc. Corrupción, corrupción, corrupción.

“B, la película” fue financiada a través de crowdfunding, vía con la que consiguieron obtener 56.000 €. Se puede ver en algunos cines, aunque tampoco ha tenido mucho éxito en cuanto a la proyección en salas (imagino el por qué), y a través de internet. Yo la “alquilé” para un visionado durante 48 horas por tan solo 3 euros en Vimeo a través de un enlace de la página web de la película (aquí).

Toda la película se desarrolla en la sala donde el interrogatorio tiene lugar (como si fuese “Doce hombres sin piedad”). No tiene desperdicio la interpretación de Casablanc (Bárcenas): su firmeza en el cambio de versión de la declaración, el lujo de detalles y memoria privilegiada para el recuerdo de algunas cifras, fechas y leyes de financiación de partidos, y el vago recuerdo en otras, su dignidad en el trato y descripción de algunos personajes y repugnancia hacia Maria Dolores de Cospedal. También Soto (Ruz) tiene una interpretación encomiable, en este caso su cara de estupefacción en varios momentos por lo que oye del acusado. Imagino que las caras que pondría el propio Ruz no serían muy diferentes.

Además de recomendar el ver la película, os dejo aquí debajo el tráiler de la misma:

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