Review of Boeing Current Market Outlook 2014

Just ahead of Farnborough air show, Boeing Commercial has published its yearly update of the Current Market Outlook (CMO) for the next 20 years of commercial aircraft market (2014-2033).

I have just compared the figures for passenger aircraft of the last two years’ CMOs:

CMO 2014 vs 2013 comparison.

CMO 2014 vs 2013 comparison.

Some comments to it:

  • You can see that the total number of new aircraft delivered has slightly increased from 34,430 to 35,930, a 4%, which is consistent with the constant 5% traffic increase that Boeing predicts (1).
  • The volume (Bn$) increases by a larger percentage, 8% (360Bn$)… this is due mainly to the increase in:
    • single-aisle aircraft expected sales in volume (12%, +270Bn$) and aircraft (+1,010), and
    • medium wide-body segment with 180 more aircraft (+6%) and an increase in volume of 70Bn$ (+7%).
  • Last year I wrote about a sudden change between CMO 2013 and CMO 2012 of the mix in wide-bodies; CMO 2014 is more consistent with last year’s one even if the trend is reverted again.

This year study’s figures seem to push for the 737 and 777, which is backed by the presentation as well. It is curious how 777 market is increased whereas 787 is slightly decreased.

Find below the nice infographic [PDF, 0.1MB] that the guys from Boeing have put up together:

Boeing Commercial Aviation Market Forecast 2013-2032 infographic.

Boeing Commercial Aviation Market Forecast 2013-2032 infographic.

As always, I recommend going through the CMO, as you can learn a lot about the business: from global numbers, to growth, traffic figures, fleet distributions, forecasts, etc… You may find the presentation [PDF, 10.6 MB] and the file [XLS, 0.7 MB] with all the data.

For a comparison between this CMO and the respective Airbus’ GMF we will have to wait until after the summer, when Airbus publishes its update. Until then, find here the comparison based on 2013 market studies.

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(1) These two ratios, 4% fleet growth and 5% traffic growth, point to an implicit increase in the average size of the aircraft in fleet.

(2) Find the review I wrote comparing 2013 CMO with 2012 CMO.

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Sarajevo, Gavrilo Princip and the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand

Yesterday, June 28th, marked 100 years since the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife in Sarajevo. The event triggered the start of World War I. On this occasion, I wanted to read the Wikipedia article about the assassination to be refreshed the sequence of events.

The sequence of events and the ambush that was prepared are dramatic. A group of six terrorists waiting in the quay to kill the archduke with guns and bombs. A first bomb being thrown to the car but bouncing off from it to the ground and exploding seconds after under the following car of the convoy injuring about 20 people. After this first attempt the procession sped ahead and the killing was frustrated. However, at the time of returning from the Town Hall and in the way to the hospital which was the purpose of the visit of the archduke to Sarajevo, the events turned even more dramatic…

After learning that the first assassination attempt had been unsuccessful, Princip thought about a position to assassinate the Archduke on his return journey, and decided to move to a position in front of a nearby food shop (Schiller’s delicatessen), near the Latin Bridge. At this point the Archdukes’ motorcade turned off the Appel Quay, mistakenly following the original route which would have taken them to the National Museum. Governor Potiorek, who was sharing the second vehicle with the Imperial couple, called out to the driver to reverse and take the Quay to the hospital. Driver Lojka stopped the car close to where Princip was standing, prior to backing up. The latter stepped forward and fired two shots from a distance of about one and a half metres (5 feet) using a Belgian-made 9×17mm (.380 ACP) Fabrique Nationale model 1910 semi-automatic pistol. 

Gavrilo Princip was the Bosnian Serb who fired the gun in this conspiracy. He was sentenced to 20 years imprisonment together with many other conspirators, some of which were sentenced to death. The house where Princip lived could be visited as part of a museum for some time but in the subsequent war was destroyed. The ground from which Princip fired had some steps as memory, but they were also destroyed in the 90s. Today, there is only a plaque in the wall in the place from which Princip shot the archduke death. We visited the place back in the summer of 2007. I wanted to share 2 pictures from those iconic places.

Plaque at the point from which Gavilo Princip shot Franz Ferdinand.

Plaque at the point from which Gavrilo Princip shot Franz Ferdinand.

Latin Bridge.

Latin Bridge.

Sarajevo is a wonderful city despite of having been devastated by so many wars. However, at the time we visited the place, there was not much to see in relation to this historic event. Nevertheless, in different museums the different pieces of the story can be seen: the car and the gun can in Vienna, the bullet, in Czech Republic.

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Musée de l’Aéronautique of Luchon

On July 19th of 1945, the British bomber Halifax Mk III Mz 981, from the 644th squadron of the Royal Air Force’s 38th transport command departed from Christchurch, in the South of England’s coast on a training mission that would take it all the way to the Cape d’Adge in the Mediterranean French coast.

Route followed by Halifax III MZ 981.

Route followed by Halifax III MZ 981.

On the way back, the aircraft would return to England crossing the South of France till the Atlantic ocean by way of Toulouse. With the fall of the night the pilot took a wrong heading (1) towards the Pyrenees, crashing against the Pic Lampau (2,543m).

About 50 years later, in the eighties, Léon Elissalde, an important figure of Luchon at the time, knowing about the crash of the Halifax III during WWII set out to look for lost parts of the aircraft. He found some of the engines, propellers, crankshafts, etc.

He knew about other crashes in the Pyrenees during WWII as well. A British Halifax II which crashed against the Pic Douluy when coming on a mission all the way from Algeria (see a description of that mission here, in French) and two German Dornier 217 equipped with BMW engines which allegedly were on the look out for the area where maquis were hidden in the mountains.

Elissalde, with all those parts created the Musée de l’Aéronautique of Luchon, located in a small hangar of village’s aerodrome.

Museum interior.

Musée de l’Aéronautique of Luchon.

We visited the museum last weekend. We counted with the guidance of a retired technician of the Armée de l’Air (French Air Force), who described the details of each of the engines, aircraft in which they were mounted and the mission the flew when they crashed. The visit lasted about an hour.

Breguet 941S preserved at Musée de l’Air et de l’Espace, image by PpPachy.

The museum includes some other engines, such as the turbojet Hispano Suiza Nene, which equipped the French Mistral, or the turboshaft Turmo III D3, which equipped the aircraft Breguet 941. The 941 was a short take-off and landing (STOL) aircraft with blown wings designed in the 1950s and which flew for the 1st time in 1961. One curiosity of this aircraft is that using 4 turboshaft engines (designed to power helicopters, not planes), all 4 engines’ turbines did not directly turn the propellers but rather powered a common shaft that ran along the leading edge of the wing powering the 4 propellers. A Breguet 941 is displayed at the Musée de l’Air et de l’Espace at Le Bourget, Paris.

Luchon is a nice village located at the heart of the Pyrenees, close to Super Bagneres skiing station, to some of the summits cycled in the Tour de France and has a great spa with water from natural sources. It is a great destination where to spend a few days. One hour of those days is well employed visiting the aviation museum.

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(1) My flight instructor uses to say “Dans l’air, le cap est la vie” (“in the air, the heading is the life”).

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Bill and Melinda Gates 2014 Stanford commencement speech

Steve Jobs’ Stanford’s 2005 commencement speech in which he talked how he pursued different things that interested him at a young age and later on these things enabled him achieve successful endeavours (connecting the dots). In that same speech he invited graduates to live their life not somebody else’s as the time we all have is limited.

Yesterday, Bill and Melinda Gates gave the 123rd Stanford commencement speech for the class of 2014 [~25′ from 1h04′].

Gates fortune and world fame is due to his founding of Microsoft and its subsequent success. Nevertheless, both Bill and Melinda were introduced to the audience and spoke mainly in relation to their experience as philanthropists.

My main takeaways from the speech:

  • What they appreciate most of Stanford: ingenuity, innovation, etc., but above all optimism.
  • Their quest to understanding what keeps people poor and how innovation could still solve most of the toughest problems.
  • The experiences they shared of meeting the poor and sick in Soweto (South Africa) and India.
  • “If you want to do the most, you have to see the worst”, Melinda Gates.
  • The great stigma suffered by disfavored women.
  • “We can help people if don’t lose hope… and if we don’t look away”, Melinda Gates.
  • The need for empathy to channel our optimism and innovation to solve the problems that affect millions of people.
  • The reference to luck as a main ingredient of the success we may have in life. Luck partly understood as what Warren Buffett refers to as the “ovarian lottery”. Acknowledging that we have been this lucky, the next step is to have empathy for those who were not as lucky. “That could be me”.

***

Last year, during our trip to the US West coast we spent a morning visiting Stanford University. Few months before I had completed 3 online courses from Stanford’s VentureLab platform and I wanted to visit the place.

I was very satisfied with what we saw during our visit: a campus in which any student would have loved to study. Plenty of parks, gardens, bikes, benches. Buildings, classes and labs open for anyone to come and see. Fully equipped classes with reduced groups of students. Open cafeterias with informal places to work. A huge library with study rooms and the flavour of an old place. An impressive book shop where we surely purchased some books… No need to enter into the excellence of the faculty, measured by Stanford in the number of Nobel prizes, Pulitzer prizes, National Medal of Sciences recipients, etc.

No wonder why the Gates proffer that admiration to Stanford and no wonder why students from it have that optimism.

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Forecasting 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil

I have a work colleague who not only is a tremendous negotiator and contracts’ drafter but also has a great sense of humor and manages in his free time late in the night to set up a contest for office staff to try to guess winners, matches’ scores, top scorers, etc., of major international soccer competitions. The 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil, which will start tomorrow, could not be missed. Nacho managed to set up the contest in time.

To set up the background as to how I have approached the game of forecasting this World Cup:

  • I had written a review of the book “Soccernomics“, which among other things advocates the use of data in order to make decisions in relation to football transfer market, forecasting, etc. This book relies somewhat heavily in “Moneyball” another book which I read some months ago with a similar scope but with baseball as the theme sport.
  • When the draw of the World Cup took place last December, I wrote a couple of blog posts discussing what was the so-called “group of death” basing the analysis on FIFA and ESPN rankings.
  • During the last year, I read a couple of books which approach how we make decisions and how to remove different kind of biases from the thought processes of making them: “Thinking Fast and Slow” (by the 2002 winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics Daniel Kahneman) and “Seeking Wisdom“.
  • Finally, last year I followed the open course “A Beginner’s Guide to Irrational Behavior” by Dan Ariely (though I missed the last exam due to my honeymoon and could not get credit for it).

Having shared this background, you may understand that I tried to remove all the beauty of guessing and my football “knowledge” to the forecasting process. I rather made use of  ESPN Soccer Power Index (SPI) ranking, introduced by the economist Nate Silver. I used its offensive and defensive scores plus the tip indicating that in competitive matches the defensive factor tends to be slightly more important (see “A Guide to ESPN’s SPI rankings”).

Once I plugged in the numbers from the index and used the referred tip on the defensive side, I built a simple model to guess each of the World Cup matches. Once you take this approach you will find that the model gives you plenty of results such as Nigeria 1.32 – 1.53 Bosnia… What to do with it? When the result was very tight I resolved it as a draw, otherwise a victory for the team with the highest score.

In very few instances I forecast that a team would score 3 or more goals in a match. I bore in mind that in the 2010 World Cup 80% of the matches ended up with scores of 1-0 (26% of the matches), 2-1 (15%), 0-0, 1-1 or 2-0 (each 13%).  That a team scores more than 3 goals in a match will certainly happen in some games, but I did not bother to guess in which ones, the odds are against.

The prize pot of the game organized by this colleague is not particularly big (few hundreds euros). The main point of the game is enjoying the chit-chat with work colleagues. My second main point is putting this rational approach to work and see how it fares.

Finally, what did I forecast?

A World Cup won by Brazil against Argentina in the final. With Spain beating Germany for the third place (in the penalties). For my English readers: England defeated by Colombia in the 1/8 of final. For the ones from USA, it doesn’t make the cut from the group phase. We will see along this month how well do I fare.

2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil forecast.

2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil forecast.

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El amor en los tiempos del cólera

El amor en los tiempos del cólera.

El amor en los tiempos del cólera.

Cuenta Gabriel García Márquez que al escribir “El amor en los tiempos del cólera” se inspiró en parte en el romance de sus padres (“La única diferencia es que mis padres se casaron. Y tan pronto como se casaron, ya no eran interesantes como figuras literarias”) y otro de unos ancianos que mantuvieron su amor en secreto durante décadas.

La novela fue publicada en 1985, tres años después de que recibiese el premio Nobel de literatura (ver discurso de aceptación del premio).

Seguramente la obra más aclamada de García Márquez sea “Cien años de soledad”, pero a mí me ha gustado bastante más “El amor en los tiempos del cólera”: una novela romántica que describe la relación durante toda una vida entre principalmente tres personajes: Fermina Daza, su marido, Juvenal Urbino, y su eterno pretendiente, Florentino Ariza.

Personalmente, parte de la narrativa y descripciones en “Cien años de soledad” se me hicieron pesados, en “El amor en los tiempos del cólera” ha sido al contrario. Largas páginas con densos párrafos se pasan en un suspiro gracias a la cantidad de figuras retóricas que usa García Márquez y hacen de la lectura un juego. En múltiples ocasiones me he encontrado después de leer un pasaje admirando el juego de palabras que acababa de hacer el autor.

Otro de los aspectos que me ha gustado del libro ha sido la personalidad y franqueza de los personajes, principalmente de Fermina Daza.

Como siempre, cuando leo un libro lo dejo lleno de páginas marcadas, pasajes subrayados, etc., os dejo algunos aquí para incitaros a la lectura.

“- Déjame aquí -dijo-. Sí había jabón”

[Juvenal Urbino a su esposa, después de llevar meses sin hablarse y durmiendo en habitaciones separas por una estúpida discusión, se retracta de su posición inicial aun sabiendo que tenía razón con tal de quedarse en la cama de matrimonio]

***

“… por su carácter, las cartas de ella eludían cualquier escollo sentimental y se reducían a contar incidentes de su vida cotidiana con el estilo servicial de un diario de navegación. En realidad eran cartas de distracción, destinadas a mantener las brasas vivas pero sin poner la mano en el fuego, mientras que Florentino Ariza se incineraba en cada línea.”

***

 “Escapó por milagro de una ejecución sumaria acusado de ser un espía que mandaba mensajes en clave de sol…”

[Habiéndose decretado el toque de queda a Florentino lo encuentra y detiene una patrulla militar cantando a Fermina]

***

 “Y algo que había de ser desde entonces la razón de su vida: la convenció de que uno viene al mundo con sus polvos contados, y los que no se usan por cualquier causa, propia o ajena, voluntaria o forzosa, se pierden para siempre. El mérito de ella fue tomarlo al pie de la letra.”

[Florentino Ariza a la viuda de Nazaret]

***

“… lo primero que le preguntaron en el puerto fue cómo le habían parecido las maravillas de Europa, y ella resolvió muchos meses de dicha con cuatro palabras de su jerga caribe:

–       Más es la bulla.”

[Fermina Daza. Esto me recuerda al pensamiento que me viene cuando alguien pregunta por Madrid, qué visitar en pocos días, qué tiene de especial, etc.]

***

“… y solo entonces había comprendido que un hombre sabe cuándo empieza a envejecer porque empieza a parecerse a su padre”

***

“… lo volteó al derecho y al revés con su sabiduría de perro viejo, lo paró de cabeza, lo subió y lo bajó, lo volvió a parir como nuevo, le hizo trizas sus virtuosismos teóricos, y le enseñó lo único que tenía que aprender para el amor: que a la vida no la enseña nadie.”

[Ausencia Santander a Florentino Ariza, quien estaba escribiendo un libro de instrucciones para enamorados]

***

“Sólo ellas sabían cuánto pesaba el hombre que amaban con locura, y que quizás las amaba, pero al que habían tenido que seguir criando hasta el último suspiro, dándole de mamar, cambiándole los pañales embarrados, distrayéndole con engañifas de madre para aliviarle el terror de salir por las mañanas a verle la cara a la realidad.”

***

“… se había enredado más pronto de lo que ella creía en una maraña de convenciones y prejuicios de su nuevo mundo. Al principio tenía una frase ritual para afirmar su libertad de criterio: “A la mierda el abanico que es tiempo de brisa”.” [Fermina Daza]

***

“Era un marido perfecto: nunca recogía nada del suelo, ni apagaba la luz, ni cerraba una puerta.” [Sobre Juvenal Urbino]

***

“… le contó que había estado esa tarde con su confesor, temió quedarse ciega de rabia. Desde el colegio tenía la convicción de que la gente de la iglesia carecía de cualquier virtud inspirada por Dios. […] Pero que su esposo le hubiera permitido al confesor inmiscuirse hasta ese punto en una intimidad que no era solo la suya, sino también la de ella, era algo que iba más allá de todo.

–       Es como contárselo a un culebrero de los portales – dijo.

Para ella era el final” [Fermina Daza]

***

“… la aterrorizaba la voracidad con que los objetos iban invadiendo los espacios de vivir, desplazando a los humanos, arrinconándolos, hasta que Fermina Daza los ponía donde no se vieran. […] escondía el desorden”

***

“Sin embargo, el rápido progreso de la aviación era un peligro real para todos. Ella trató de consolarlo: los buques existirían siempre, porque no eran muchos los locos dispuestos a meterse en un aparato que parecía ser contra natura.” [Floretino Ariza y Fermina Daza sobre los aviones.]

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Swimming with dolphins in Mauritius

Mauritius is an island nation some 2,000 km off the East coast of Africa, in the Southern hemisphere, about 1/4th the size of the region of Madrid. Most of its surface is covered by sugar cane fields and a national park. The beaches are splendid. A major part of its coast is surrounded by coral reef. The service by Mauritians is terrific.

We have just come from spending a relaxing week over there and in this blog post I wanted to share one experience that marked me from this trip: swimming with dolphins in open waters.

One of the excursions offered was to go one day very early in the morning to take a boat off from Tamarin port in order to spend about 2 hours swimming with dolphins. One tourist from our group asked “what are the chances of actually seeing dolphins?”, “over 95%” confidently said the tour operator who tried to sell the different packages.

As the experience promised to be unique we went for it. And unique it was.

After having driven for almost 2 hours to cross the island, at 7am we were in the boat already seeing dolphins. We put on the snorkelling kit: flippers, mask and tube and off to the water.

At first, the anxiety made me lose my breath. After less than one minute you get used to it. In less than 2-3 minutes you get to locate the dolphins just by seeing their fins some meters away. Then you start swimming trying to chase them. “Look down!” said the guide. Once, you look down, you get to see some dolphin swimming some meters below. Then 2, 3, 4… and off you go swimming along with them. With the flippers it doesn’t even cost a lot of effort to keep pace with them. Soon enough you see yourself surrounded by over 10 dolphins. You think that they are not more than 20 centimetres away, you extend your arm but cannot touch them. They’re probably not far away, but not that close either. They swim on the surface, breath and go down some metres under the surface. You follow them from up above until they come up again. This sequence is repeated once and again. Until at some point you lose that group. Back to the beginning. You locate some dolphin, swim towards it and then find a group… it went on and on for almost 2 hours.

See a video we took and some pictures below (1).

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If you ever have the chance, do not miss it.

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(1) In Youtube you may find much better videos taken with cameras under the water surface.

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Transcript of 2014 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Q&A with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger

Last Saturday, May 3rd, Berkshire Hathaway held in Omaha its annual shareholder meeting, attended by over 30,000 shareholders. The most expected part of that weekend is the Q&A session of the meeting, in which Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger answer to dozens of questions.

The meeting is neither televised, nor recorded or streamed. However, the financial website Motley Fool has done a terrific job publishing a transcript of the session. Find the link here and allow yourself at least a couple of hours to read through it (the Q&A session takes hours itself!). I strongly encourage the reading. As a teaser, find below some of the gems:

“No CEO looks at proxy statements and comes away thinking that I should be paid less.” Warren Buffett.

“We can’t earn same return on capital with over $300 billion market cap. Archimedes said he could move the world with a long enough lever. I wish I had his lever” Buffett

“If you are in any social organization, if you keep belching at the dinner table, you’ll be eating in the kitchen” Buffett (on Boards of Directors)

“Cash or available credit is like oxygen: you don’t notice it 99.9% of the time, but when absent, it’s the only thing you notice” Buffett

“By the standards of the rest, we over-trust. […] because we carefully selected people who should be over-trusted” Charlie Munger

“There’s something about owning a brand to educate yourself about things you might do in the future.” Buffett

“At the beginning, we knew nothing. We were stupid. If there’s any secret to Berkshire, it’s that we’re pretty good at ignorance removal.” Munger

“… if you think you understand, you’re not paying attention.” Munger

“There’s changes going on with all our businesses. We want managers to think about change, what’s going to be needed for the future” Buffett

“Being realistic when realizing your own shortcomings is important.” Buffett (on the circle of competence)

“There’s a point you start getting inverse correlation between wealth and quality of life” Buffett

“I think America made a huge mistake by letting the public school systems go to hell…” Munger

(on home mortgage market) “you had the biggest bunch of thieves & idiots running things, I’m not trusting private industry in this field” Munger

“The net utility from finance majors has been negative.” Buffett

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Some other readings I recommend in relation to this post:

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“Lessons from a Career of Trying to Defy the Law (of Gravity)”, lecture by Norman Augustine

Norman Augustine is an aeronautical engineer whom I have referred to often in this blog mainly due to his book “Augustine’s Laws” of which I wrote a review (find it here). He started working at Douglas Aircraft Company (1) in 1958, though through his long career he has occupied several positions in the administration and other major aerospace companies such Martin Marietta and then Lockheed Martin (2).

In my review about his book I wrote:

The book reviews A&D programs, especially their mismanagement and failures from the Wright brothers times till the early 80′s, when the book was written. The book is hilarious.

Lecture by Norman Augustine.

Lecture by Norman Augustine.

Some readers may believe I overstate it. Well, I invite you to watch the lecture he gave 2 days ago at the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum (3) as part of the Charles A. Lindbergh Memorial Lecture Series. The lecture was titled “Lessons from a Career of Trying to Defy the Law (of Gravity)” [47’59”].

During the lecture Norman shares a great deal of the wisdom he has accumulated through his long career, part of it condensed in his Laws, compiled in his book. One of the laws I like the most is possibly the number IX:

In the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one tactical aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3 1/2 days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day. (LAW NUMBER IX)

I think it is priceless to have Norman explain it in person:

Augustine's Law IX.

Augustine’s Law IX.

During the lecture he used an update of his law (written in the 80’s) made by The Economist a few years ago which I covered also in this blog (4).

Other topics covered by Augustine during the lecture include: the importance of thinking with a systems point of view, the evolution of aerospace industry in the last decades, the importance of strategy and leadership, all covered by his fine humor and wit.

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(1) You may read here a tribute I wrote about Douglas Aircraft Company.

(2) Some years ago I wrote this post about Lockheed’s Skunk Works.

(3) You may find here a post I wrote about my visit to the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum at Dulles.

(4) I few months ago I wrote another post reviewing the application to bomber aircraft of Augustine’s Law IX with new US long range bomber program. In his book Norman includes an extrapolation as well of bomber aircraft increasing costs, even if the wording of the law takes tactical aircraft as the benchmark.

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Rotterdam marathon

Last Sunday 13th April, I completed Rotterdam marathon together with Jaime, Serna and Manuel. In a race preview post I wrote that I arrived to this marathon a bit short of training, having completed just about 2/3 of the training plan. In the weeks prior to the race I had asked my brother what pace he intended to start with. Having in mind the lack of thorough training, I thought of starting at a pace slightly below 5’20” per km but not below 5′. That rhythm, if sustained through the end, would allow a new personal best (at that point 3h45’35”, achieved in Paris, April 2012).

Jaime and I started the race together, departing from the box “E”. We ran together 15 kilometres, pacing each other, ensuring we would not run too fast or too slow. At km. 15 Jaime said he wanted to soften the pace a little and since then I ran alone. My intention up to then was just to try to sustain low 5’s until km. 25, just before the climb of the Erasmus bridge back to the city centre. I thought that climb would take its toll and wanted to arrive to it with some time cushion, climb it relaxed and see if after it I could go back to a similar pace.

Just when we crossed the bridge I saw that I had not slowed down but the pace was still at 5 minutes per km. This encouraged me. I took the second energetic gel bag and ate it (I consumed the first one at km. 15) and told to myself “let’s try to run a few more kilometres at 5′, one at a time”.

… and those were the best 10 kilometres of my race, from 25 to 35, where I employed less than 50′ and enjoyed it a lot. I was overtaking runners, very focused on my own pace, breathing correctly, drinking at every supply post, eating another energy gel bar at km. 33, refreshing myself with sponges…

Rotterdam marathon: pace (min / km) evolution.

Rotterdam marathon: pace (min / km) evolution.

Running at km. 40.

Running at km. 40.

At some point, seeing that I was maintaining paces of 5′ and that I had only a cumulative 1’30” over the time for 3h30′, I thought that would be possible. However, at km. 36 I started feeling stiffer. The running was less smooth. Nevertheless, I told again to myself “let’s try to clock kilometres at about 5’20” “, and so I did with the exception of km. 41, but offset with 42. The last 500 metres I sprinted to try to clock a time under 3h35′, which I did: 3h34’52”, a new personal best time in marathon.

Rotterdam marathon 5k splits, paces and predicted finish times.

Rotterdam marathon 5k splits, paces and predicted finish times.

Finish photo.

Finish photo.

From the marathons I have completed in these last 3 years, Rotterdam marathon does not have the best scenery (Rome, Paris), nor is the flattest (Berlin), or the one with the best start (Rome) or finish (Athens, Berlin)… but it has been in Rotterdam where I have enjoyed the most running, where I have had the best feelings and the best race management.

One take away for me of this marathon is something which I had read often: don’t give all out from start, keep something for the second half. After the race, I have made the numbers and the comparison: Rotterdam and Paris (my previous PB) have been the slowest 2 marathons till the half marathon.

Comparison of splits in the last 6 marathons.

Comparison of splits in the last 6 marathons.

Finish photo: 11th marathon.

Finish photo: 11th marathon.

In Rotterdam, the starting at pace above 5′ was not intended in order to keep faster paces for the second half. I wish I had had such confidence and good strategy from the outset. No, we started at those paces in order to see if we could be between 3h40′ and 3h45′. But I take the lesson for the future, for the 12th marathon…

Rotterdam marathon diploma.

Rotterdam marathon diploma.

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