Monthly Archives: September 2012

September 30, 2012 · 9:00 am

Good morning, Berlin!

This morning, as this post is being published I’ll be starting the 39th Berlin marathon, together with my friend Serna and brother Jaime.

At mid-point through the training, beginning of August, I wrote a post about the good amount of kilometres I had been able to train in July. Two weeks later I got injured in the Achilles tendon when training in the hills of Torrelodones. I took a one-week rest and slowly re-started training. That week finished with a 10k race in Colomiers where I achieved a new PR in the distance but got pain in the same tendon again.

I took a 10-day rest and tried to run again: 3.5km, 7km and then 12km… but got the pain back and had to cancel my participation in Toulouse half marathon.

As you can see in the graphic below, the training season can be divided in 3 weeks of getting into the habit, 7 weeks of good training and 6 weeks of struggling to recover, plus few days of running and swimming.

Berlin training season. Kilometres run per week and average heart rate (bpm).

During the season I should have run over 1,000km, but in the end I have only completed 643km. This is more than I could run in preparation for the last marathon in Paris, but this time I arrive to the starting line without having run recently and the bunch of the training was done more than a month ago…

As Jaime says, this time the race will not be about the time, but just about trying to complete it… a day for the epic.

Lastly, I wanted to raise awareness about one thing I love of some races: the support of charities and NGOs. We subscribed to this marathon last year and, when doing so, each of us contributed with 42€ (1 € per km run) to the charities supported by the organization.

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September 28, 2012 · 8:00 am

En España en 2007 más de la mitad de los declarantes obtuvieron ingresos por debajo de la media

En el último post publiqué un cálculo de cuáles fueron los ingresos medios en España en 2007 a partir de las declaraciones del IRPF de aquel año. El resultado, 17.116€, debe ser algo inferior a los ingresos medios reales, debido a los efectos de las deducciones que se aplican a la hora de calcular la declaración de la renta (ver NOTA en dicho post).

En este post, sin embargo quiero usar aquellos datos para poner un ejemplo de media, mediana y moda, como epílogo a un comentario de otro post que publiqué la semana pasada (sobre como unos datos de ingresos en EE.UU. se reflejaban en un periódico) y una conversación con un compañero de trabajo.

Usaré la siguiente gráfica, que resume el post anterior:

Declarates de IRPF en España en 2007 por tramo de ingresos.

En la gráfica se puede ver:

  • la cantidad de declarantes por cada tramo de renta (columnas en gris),
  • la “media” de ingresos calculada para cada tramo (líneas negras)
  • la media de ingresos del total de declarantes (línea roja), 17.116€.
  • la “moda” de ingresos, esto es, el dato que más se repite, y que a falta de más datos cogeríamos la media del tramo donde más declarantes hay, i.e., 11.755€ (línea negra gruesa).
  • la “mediana” que se encuentra en el percentil 50 y separa la mitad de declarantes que más ingresos declara de la mitad que menos ingresos declara, en este caso y a falta de más datos dentro de cada tramo, de nuevo habría que asimilarla a la media del tramo donde más declarantes hay, i.e., 11.755€. (Por encima de ese tramo, 12-21k€, declaran 6,2 millones de personas y por debajo 7,3 millones).

Luego en España, en 2007, y dado que la media del total de declarantes (17.116€) es bastante superior que la mediana (11.755€), aun estando ambas dentro del mismo tramo (12-21k€ – ver NOTA del post anterior), más de la mitad de los declarantes obtuvieron ingresos por debajo de la media (posiblemente la cifra estuvo en torno al 60%).

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September 26, 2012 · 8:00 am

Ingresos medios en España en 2007: 17.116€

Hace unos días publicaba una serie de tablas que recopilé 2007 sobre la economía española. En una de ellas aparecían datos sobre la declaración del impuesto sobre la renta de las personas físicas (IRPF) de 2007: número de declarantes en cada tramo, importe abonado por los declarantes de cada tramo, media por declarante…

El primer post a publicar a partir de esa tabla era inmediato: ¿cuál era el salario medio en España en 2007 a partir de los datos de la declaración del IRPF?

Primer paso: encontrar cuales eran los tramos del IRPF del año 2007 (hay que notar que estos tramos son diferentes a los 2010, que publiqué en otro post, y a los de 2012 – que tendré que comparar algún día con los de Francia en 2012).

Tramos de IRPF en 2007 (fuente: El Economista).

A partir de los tramos, se puede ir calculando el importe abonado por los declarantes en cada tramo; es decir, alguien que declaró 35.000€:

  • no pagó por los primeros 5.050€ (“mínimo vital”).
  • pagó un 24% por los 12.310€ entre el mínimo vital y los 17.360€ del límite del tramo.
  • pagó un 28% por los 15.000€ del siguiente tramo.
  • pagó un 37% por los 2.640€ del siguiente tramo (de 32.360€ a sus 35.000€).

Según lo que los declarantes abonan en cada tramo y el tipo en cada tramo, se pueden calcular los ingresos medios declarados en 2007 para cada tramo y para el total. Es decir, el ingreso medio en España en 2007 para los casi 19 millones de españoles que completaron la declaración de la renta. Adjunto debajo la tabla resultante:

Ingresos medios en España en 2007 calculados a partir de los datos de la declaración del IRPF de 2007.

El resultado: el ingreso medio declarado en 2007 fue de 17.116€ (ver nota).

El paso siguiente también es obvio, buscar entre las fuentes y dar con el dato de 2010, que debería estar disponible.

***

NOTA: En la tabla incluyo un par de comentarios. En el segundo menciono que tras realizar el cálculo para los tramos de 12 a 21k€ y de 21 a 30k€ resultan unos ingresos medios menores que el mínimo del tramo. Este resultado es incoherente. Entiendo que debe ser por deducciones que el declarante obtiene por su situación personal (hipotecas, personas a su cargo), por tanto, este método es insuficiente para obtener un resultado final, ya que dichas deducciones pueden minorar el importe pagado en cantidades no despreciables en los tramos inferiores (para los tramos superiores, las deducciones suponen un porcentaje menor).

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September 24, 2012 · 8:00 am

World commercial aircraft fleet: forecast vs. actual

Some weeks ago I made a comparison about Airbus and Boeing aircraft market forecasts. Last week I published a couple of posts about the evolution in the forecasted aircraft average size and on the accuracy of these market forecasts. For this, I looked for old issues of Boeing Current Market Outlook from as back as 1990.

The next step then it was obvious, I compiled the following graphic showing with the data available information over a 40-year span on:

  • The evolution of world commercial aircraft fleet year by year (blue line) from 1995 to 2011,
  • The forecasted world aircraft fleets by Boeing CMO (red line) from 2000 to 2031 (with some gap years). For 2015 to 2031 the forecast was made 20 years ahead; for 2010-13 it was made 15 years ahead; for 2005-2008, 10 years ahead and for 2000-2003, 5 years ahead.
  • The published 20-year aircraft market forecast year by year.

World commercial aircraft fleet: forecast vs. actual (data source: Boeing CMO).

As you can fleets, forecasted fleets and market fleets have all been increasing year by year. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for each one has been:

  • Actual fleet growth: 3.73% from 1995 to 2011 (2.88% from 2000 to 2011).
  • Forecasted fleet growth: 3.55% from 2000 to 2031 (3.69% from 2000 to 2011).
  • 20-year market forecast: 5.07% from 1992 to 2012 (3.43% from 2001 to 2012).

It is interesting to see that in those years when there is both figures for actuals and forecasted fleets the figures are close (-3.3% average deviation) and so is the trend, though forecasted fleet was lower at the beginning of that period (-7.2% in 2000) and grew at a higher rate until almost matching the numbers in 2011 (+1.2%).

Even though, the 20-year market forecasts have grown at a higher rate than fleets, it is mainly because the first data that I could retrieve come from the economic crisis of the beginning of the 1990’s, when Boeing trimmed down its forecasts. From the 2000’s the figures for market forecast have grown at a similar rate than those of fleets. And so will be the growth of forecasted fleet from 2011 to 2031: 3.5%.

****

Notes:

  • 1990 CMO long-term market forecast is made for 15 years, not 20.
  • Forecast of fleet for the periods 2000-2003, 2005-2008 and 2010-2013 does not come from CMOs published 20 years before, but from 5, 10 and 15-year fleet forecasts included in the CMOs of 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999.
  • Boeing does not publish 5, 10 and 15-year fleet forecasts anymore.
  • It would be interesting to have a per-segment graphic, however there is not consistent data to produce it for the same time span. Boeing changed singe-aisle cut-off seat size from 1999-2000, in 1996-1997 and 2008 didn’t report the split within twin-aisle, in 2008 it also didn’t report the split within single-aisle.

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September 22, 2012 · 8:00 am

España: IRPF, Impuesto de Patrimonio, Fondos de Inversión y PIB

A raíz de una conversación que tuve la semana pasada recordé que tenía guardadas algunas tablas y gráficas interesantes escaneadas de la edición impresa de El País de 2010 (8 y 20 de mayo, y 17 de octubre; nunca las he encontrado en formato digital). Las comparto en el blog, porque me servirán para referirme a ellas (en conversaciones offline y online) en el futuro y seguramente escriba alguna otra entrada usando números que aparecen en ellas.

IRPF en España en 2007 (fuente: El País, 20.05.2010).

Impuesto de Patrimonio en España en 2007 (fuente: El País, 20.05.2010).

Fondos de inversión en España (fuente: El País, 17.10.2010).

Evolución del PIB en España de 1978-2010 (fuente: El País, 08.05.2010).

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September 20, 2012 · 8:00 am

Aircraft market forecasts accuracy

In a previous post I wrote about how the predicted average aircraft size by Boeing in 1990 did not match the actual evolution of that average size since then. In a more general context, how accurate are these aircraft market forecasts? Especially taking into account that they forecast along a 20-year period.

I dug in the archives and found an article in Flight International‘s issue of 10-16 March 1993 which compared Airbus’ GMF and Boeing’s CMO (you can find 2012 comparison here). Some excerpts from that article:

  • “Boeing is projecting deliveries of 12,005 aircraft, worth $815 billion at current values, from 1993 to 2010.”
  • (Boeing) “The trend towards larger aircraft will accelerate so that, although single-aisle types will account for about two-thirds of all deliveries, they will comprise 74% of those up to 2000 and only 60% beyond.”
  • “Airbus Industrie has released an upbeat forecast, predicting market demand for 11,653 new jet airliners to be delivered during 1992-2011, up from the 11,500 deliveries predicted in 1991.”
  • (Airbus) “The manufacturer foresees an accelerating demand for widebodied aircraft, driving average airliner size from today’s 176 seats to 255 seats in 20 years.”
  • (Airbus) “The global jet-airliner fleet will grow to 10,000 by 1998 and to almost 15,000 by 2011.“

Now, let’s see what was the fleet at the end of 2011. Seeing Airbus’ Global Market Forecast from 2012, the departing numbers are those of 2011 fleet.

  • Passenger aircraft: 15,556 a/c.
  • Freighter aircraft: 1,615 a/c.

Thus, 17,171 a/c at the end 0f 2011. The GMF from 1992 underestimated the 20-year market by slightly above 2,100 or nearly 15% error. Not a bad shot taking into account the time span used.

Let’s take a more recent example, this time from Boeing. In the CMO from 1997, we find the following chart showing Boeing’s forecasted fleet size and distribution for 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016 year-ends.

1997 Boeing CMO year-end fleet forecasts for 2001, 2006, 2011 & 2016.

In 2012 CMO, Boeing offered figures of 2011 year-end fleet.

Fleet at year end 2011 according to Boeing 2012 CMO.

We can make a quick comparison:

Comparison of aircraft fleet at year-end 2011: 1997 forecast vs. actual (sources: Boeing CMO 1997 and 2012).

Some reflections:

  • The total fleet figure was missed only by 1%.
  • The single-aisle figure was missed only by 2%, though less larger single-aisle were acquired than expected.
  • Where the forecast is off mark is in both regional jets (underestimated) and twin-aisle, where there are almost 1,800 less aircraft in the current fleet than forecasted… another reason for Boeing to play down on A380 segment.

***

NOTE: Figures of current fleet from Boeing and Airbus differ. Some causes: Airbus does not include figures for regional jets, and definitions between large aircraft and twin-aisle vary from one company to the other. Other than that, figures for freighters are similar, 1,615 (A) vs. 1,740 (B), as they are for passenger single-aisles, 12,161 (A) vs 12,030 (B).

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September 18, 2012 · 8:00 am

Aircraft average size: Boeing’s forecast in 1990 and following evolution

Boeing, in its Commercial Market Outlook forecast, currently downplays the potential of the A380. Two years ago, I wrote a post in which I collected some views from Boeing in 1996:

“Most major aerospace companies agree that airlines will require 500 to 700 airplanes capable of carrying more than 500 passengers. Boeing forecasts 500 airplanes will be needed by the year 2015. […]”

Boeing later left a joint study with Airbus for the Very Large Commercial Transport (VLCT).

Going backwards further than 1996, I found in Flight International issue of 5-11 September 1990 the following chart showing Boeing’s estimate for the average size of airplanes up to 2005. It showed an ever increased average size:

Average aircraft size forecast made in 1990.

Seven years later, in the 1997 CMO Boeing forecasted as well an ever-increasing average aircraft size (though trimmed from 1990 forecast):

Average size evolution forecast (source: Boeing CMO 1997).

However, you may see the evolution since then in this other chart from Boeing’s CMO below:

Average aircraft size evolution 1991-2011.

In a following post I will compare how accurate these market forecasts are in general and by segment. As we will see, the general figures for fleet and for some segments were well predicted, not so for other segments.

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September 17, 2012 · 8:00 am

Preparation vs. procrastination

I subscribed to the Humorous Speech competition of my Toastmasters club in Toulouse, Rosemasters, before the summer break. The contest was held last Saturday. I had competed in the previous round of contests of the club back in March, when I was lucky enough to win the speech contest. You may see the speech in this post.

I say “lucky” because, even if the message of the speech might have been valuable, and the delivery was OK, I did not prepare then as I should have. I procrastinated. I wrote the speech the week of the contest, read it some times along the week, but only practiced the morning of the contest. However, my procrastination was not punished…

For the speech contest of last Saturday I procrastinated a bit more. I thought about the topic during the week of the contest: self-deprecation about my integration in France, OK. But only got to write the speech the morning of the contest. I enjoyed the delivery of the speech, but I guess it was not as good as it should have been. What is worse, even if nobody but Luca and me noticed, I forgot a whole minute of speech with a couple of good lines… this is what happens when you don’t prepare. I came in last of the 3 contestants in terms of judges’ evaluation. Deservedly. Hopefully I will learn the lesson for the next time.

The winner, Dominique, on the other hand made a wonderful speech using an ukulele, which he had purchased for the speech about a month ago, learnt to play few notes to accompany the speech, thought of tens of uses for the ukulele within a speech, put up a great structure, used lots of body language, storytelling… I loved his speech. Congratulations to Dominique!

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September 16, 2012 · 10:00 pm

De profesión, periodisto: Sandro Pozzi

Hace meses escribí sobre como algunos periodistas no se enteran de las cifras que manejan. En aquella ocasión, el periodista simplemente copiaba mal una cifra, equivocándose en órdenes de magnitud y terminando por dar a entender que Bin Laden se encontraba en un región del tamaño… de un campo de fútbol.

Hoy leo una entrevista al premio Nobel de Economía de 2001 Joseph Stiglitz. A mitad de la entrevista, el periodista habla del último censo en Estados Unidos:

“LOS DADOS DEL ÚLTIMO CENSO de población en EE UU revelan que 150 millones de personas son pobres o tienen una renta por debajo de la media. Eso equivale a casi uno de cada dos habitantes.”

¿Nos toma a los lectores por tontos o el tonto es él? Si Estados Unidos tiene unos 311 millones de habitantes, ¿es escandaloso que 150, prácticamente la mitad, tengan una renta por debajo de la media? ¿Es noticia? Claro, la otra mitad, otros 150 millones (o alguno más) tienen una renta por encima de la media… Si quiere hablar de desigualdades alarmantes, me temo que tendría que haber acudido a otra cifra.

A continuación miro a ver quien firma la entrevista: Sandro Pozzi, el mismo periodisto que hace unos días firmaba otro artículo en El País sobre las conversaciones entre EADS y BAE Systems, eso sí conservando el error original de otros artículos de prensa americana (e.g. Bloomberg) diciendo que DASA compró Construcciones Aeronáuticas (CASA) en 1999.

Imagino que por lo menos habla buen inglés.

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September 16, 2012 · 10:00 am

EADS and BAE Systems merger talks

I first learnt about the merger talks between EADS and BAE Systems via a tweet from my brother:

I then suggested that the possible kind of “last supper” might have been the “Defence and Security Co-operation Treaty” signed almost 2 years ago between France and United Kingdom.

Last supper. First, what is that “last supper” my brother was referring to? It refers to a meeting that was called in 1993 by William Perry, then US Deputy Secretary of Defense, in which he explained defence contractors the post-Cold War defense strategy which called for defense industrial base consolidation. In the chart below, you can see the spree of mergers and acquisitions that took place in the following years:

US defence contractors consolidation after “last supper” in 1993.

In Europe at the time there was a similar consolidation trend, which ended in mainly 3 big European aerospace and defence groups: EADS, BAE Systems and Finmeccanica.

Setting the record straight. Prior to the definition of those 3 groups, several discussions took place at the end of the 90s between different companies. Some articles that I have read about the EADS and BAE talks mention that after conversations between German DASA and British Aerospace failed in 1998 (when BA opted for acquiring GEC Marconi), DASA underwent the acquisition of the Spanish Construcciones Aeronáuticas SA (CASA). Well, this is not true. It never happened. DASA merged with French Aerospatiale. Some months later CASA joined the merged when EADS was created. This is well reflected in many other articles. Just as a side note: Tom Enders, current EADS CEO took a role personally in those conversations between DASA and BA already in 1998.

Balance between Defence and Civil business. Most of the articles that we can read today mention the strategic goal of EADS in balancing its defence portfolio with the civil one. Two years ago I wrote a post which included some graphics comparing the then largest world defence companies. I compared the relative size of each company and how defence-oriented their businesses are. Today, I will make use of one of those graphics to show the profile of the two companies, EADS and BAE Systems to weigh that strategic fit:

EADS vs BAE. Size and defence profile.

Stock Market response. The merger talks were announced last Wednesday 12th. The closing prices of each company the previous day were:

  • EADS: 29.67€. This is, a market value of 24.3bn€.
  • BAE Systems: 328pc. This is, a market value of 13.3bn€ (taking that day exchange rate of 1.25).

That is, the combined merger would be 37.6bn€; 64.6% coming from EADS, 35.4% from BAE. However, the announcement mentioned a 60/40 split of the parent company. That is, the announcement pointed investors that either EADS was overvalued (up to +17.7% to get a 60/40 split keeping BAE’s value constant), BAE undervalued (up to -21.5% to get a 60/40 split keeping EADS’ value constant) or somewhere in between.

In the following days, EADS price fell down and then stabilised, BAE went upwards. On Friday they closed at:

  • EADS: 25.31€. This is, a market value of 20.7bn€.
  • BAE Systems: 347pc. This is, a market value of 14.1bn€.

That is a split of 59.5%/40.5%… thus, the market understood EADS was overvalued around -15% while BAE was undervalued around 6%.

Self praise. Taking that price in which now EADS sells, 25.3€ (undoubtedly guided by the 60/40 split), I wanted to bring back another post I wrote about a year ago. In that post, I mentioned that I valued EADS at a price of 24€… Not bad :-).

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