Monthly Archives: September 2012

Good morning, Berlin!

This morning, as this post is being published I’ll be starting the 39th Berlin marathon, together with my friend Serna and brother Jaime.

At mid-point through the training, beginning of August, I wrote a post about the good amount of kilometres I had been able to train in July. Two weeks later I got injured in the Achilles tendon when training in the hills of Torrelodones. I took a one-week rest and slowly re-started training. That week finished with a 10k race in Colomiers where I achieved a new PR in the distance but got pain in the same tendon again.

I took a 10-day rest and tried to run again: 3.5km, 7km and then 12km… but got the pain back and had to cancel my participation in Toulouse half marathon.

As you can see in the graphic below, the training season can be divided in 3 weeks of getting into the habit, 7 weeks of good training and 6 weeks of struggling to recover, plus few days of running and swimming.

Berlin training season. Kilometres run per week and average heart rate (bpm).

During the season I should have run over 1,000km, but in the end I have only completed 643km. This is more than I could run in preparation for the last marathon in Paris, but this time I arrive to the starting line without having run recently and the bunch of the training was done more than a month ago…

As Jaime says, this time the race will not be about the time, but just about trying to complete it… a day for the epic.

Lastly, I wanted to raise awareness about one thing I love of some races: the support of charities and NGOs.¬†We subscribed to this marathon last year and, when doing so, each of us contributed with 42‚ā¨ (1 ‚ā¨ per km run) to the¬†charities¬†supported by the organization.

2 Comments

Filed under Sports

En Espa√Īa en 2007 m√°s de la mitad de los declarantes obtuvieron ingresos por debajo de la media

En el √ļltimo post publiqu√© un c√°lculo de cu√°les fueron los ingresos medios en Espa√Īa en 2007 a partir de las declaraciones del IRPF de aquel a√Īo. El resultado, 17.116‚ā¨, debe ser algo inferior a los ingresos medios reales, debido a los efectos de las deducciones que se aplican a la hora de calcular la declaraci√≥n de la renta (ver NOTA en dicho post).

En este post, sin embargo quiero usar aquellos datos para poner un ejemplo de media, mediana y moda, como ep√≠logo a un comentario de otro post que publiqu√© la semana pasada (sobre como unos datos de ingresos en EE.UU. se reflejaban en un peri√≥dico) y una conversaci√≥n con un compa√Īero de trabajo.

Usaré la siguiente gráfica, que resume el post anterior:

Declarates de IRPF en Espa√Īa en 2007 por tramo de ingresos.

En la gr√°fica se puede ver:

  • la cantidad de declarantes por cada tramo de renta (columnas en gris),
  • la “media” de ingresos calculada para cada tramo (l√≠neas negras)
  • la media de ingresos del total de declarantes (l√≠nea roja), 17.116‚ā¨.
  • la “moda” de ingresos, esto es, el dato que m√°s se repite, y que a falta de m√°s datos coger√≠amos la media del tramo donde m√°s declarantes hay, i.e., 11.755‚ā¨ (l√≠nea negra gruesa).
  • la “mediana” que se encuentra en el percentil 50 y separa la mitad de declarantes que m√°s ingresos declara de la mitad que menos ingresos declara, en este caso y a falta de m√°s datos dentro de cada tramo, de nuevo habr√≠a que asimilarla a la media del tramo donde m√°s declarantes hay, i.e., 11.755‚ā¨. (Por encima de ese tramo, 12-21k‚ā¨, declaran 6,2 millones de personas y por debajo 7,3 millones).

Luego en Espa√Īa, en 2007, y dado que la media del total de declarantes (17.116‚ā¨) es bastante superior que la mediana (11.755‚ā¨), aun estando ambas dentro del mismo tramo (12-21k‚ā¨ – ver NOTA del post anterior), m√°s de la mitad de los declarantes obtuvieron ingresos por debajo de la media (posiblemente la cifra estuvo en torno al 60%).

2 Comments

Filed under Economy

Ingresos medios en Espa√Īa en 2007: 17.116‚ā¨

Hace unos d√≠as publicaba una serie de tablas que recopil√© 2007 sobre la econom√≠a espa√Īola. En una de ellas aparec√≠an datos sobre la declaraci√≥n del impuesto sobre la renta de las personas f√≠sicas (IRPF) de 2007: n√ļmero de declarantes en cada tramo, importe abonado por los declarantes de cada tramo, media por declarante…

El primer post a publicar a partir de esa tabla era inmediato: ¬Ņcu√°l era el salario medio en Espa√Īa en 2007 a partir de los datos de la declaraci√≥n del IRPF?

Primer paso: encontrar cuales eran los tramos del IRPF del a√Īo 2007 (hay que notar que estos tramos son diferentes a los 2010, que publiqu√© en otro post, y a los de 2012 – que tendr√© que comparar alg√ļn d√≠a con los de Francia en 2012).

Tramos de IRPF en 2007 (fuente: El Economista).

A partir de los tramos, se puede ir calculando el importe abonado por los declarantes en cada tramo; es decir, alguien que declar√≥ 35.000‚ā¨:

  • no pag√≥ por los primeros 5.050‚ā¨ (“m√≠nimo vital”).
  • pag√≥ un 24% por los 12.310‚ā¨ entre el m√≠nimo vital y los 17.360‚ā¨ del l√≠mite del tramo.
  • pag√≥ un 28% por los 15.000‚ā¨ del siguiente tramo.
  • pag√≥ un 37% por los 2.640‚ā¨ del siguiente tramo (de 32.360‚ā¨ a sus 35.000‚ā¨).

Seg√ļn lo que los declarantes abonan en cada tramo y el tipo en cada tramo, se pueden calcular los ingresos medios declarados en 2007 para cada tramo y para el total. Es decir, el ingreso medio en Espa√Īa en 2007 para los casi 19 millones de espa√Īoles que completaron la declaraci√≥n de la renta. Adjunto debajo la tabla resultante:

Ingresos medios en Espa√Īa en 2007 calculados a partir de los datos de la declaraci√≥n del IRPF de 2007.

El resultado: el ingreso medio declarado en 2007 fue de¬†17.116‚ā¨ (ver nota).

El paso siguiente también es obvio, buscar entre las fuentes y dar con el dato de 2010, que debería estar disponible.

***

NOTA: En la tabla incluyo un par de comentarios. En el segundo menciono que tras realizar el c√°lculo para los tramos de 12 a 21k‚ā¨ y de 21 a 30k‚ā¨ resultan unos ingresos medios menores que el m√≠nimo del tramo. Este resultado es incoherente. Entiendo que debe ser por deducciones que el declarante obtiene por su situaci√≥n personal (hipotecas, personas a su cargo), por tanto, este m√©todo es insuficiente para obtener un resultado final, ya que dichas deducciones pueden minorar el importe pagado en cantidades no despreciables en los tramos inferiores (para los tramos superiores, las deducciones suponen un porcentaje menor).

1 Comment

Filed under Economy

World commercial aircraft fleet: forecast vs. actual

Some weeks ago I made a comparison about Airbus and Boeing aircraft market forecasts. Last week I published a couple of posts about the evolution in the forecasted aircraft average size and on the accuracy of these market forecasts. For this, I looked for old issues of Boeing Current Market Outlook from as back as 1990.

The next step then it was obvious, I compiled the following graphic showing with the data available information over a 40-year span on:

  • The evolution of world commercial aircraft fleet year by year (blue line) from 1995 to 2011,
  • The forecasted world aircraft fleets by Boeing CMO (red line) from 2000 to 2031 (with some gap years). For 2015 to 2031 the forecast was made 20 years ahead; for 2010-13 it was made 15 years ahead; for 2005-2008, 10 years ahead and for 2000-2003, 5 years ahead.
  • The published 20-year aircraft market forecast year by year.

World commercial aircraft fleet: forecast vs. actual (data source: Boeing CMO).

As you can fleets, forecasted fleets and market fleets have all been increasing year by year. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for each one has been:

  • Actual fleet growth: 3.73% from 1995 to 2011 (2.88% from 2000 to 2011).
  • Forecasted fleet growth: 3.55% from 2000 to 2031 (3.69% from 2000 to 2011).
  • 20-year market forecast: 5.07% from 1992 to 2012 (3.43% from 2001 to 2012).

It is interesting to see that in those years when there is both figures for actuals and forecasted fleets the figures are close (-3.3% average deviation) and so is the trend, though forecasted fleet was lower at the beginning of that period (-7.2% in 2000) and grew at a higher rate until almost matching the numbers in 2011 (+1.2%).

Even though, the 20-year market forecasts have grown at a higher rate than fleets, it is mainly because the first data that I could retrieve come from the economic crisis of the beginning of the 1990’s, when Boeing trimmed down its forecasts. From the 2000’s the figures for market forecast have grown at a similar rate than those of fleets. And so will be the growth of forecasted fleet from 2011 to 2031: 3.5%.

****

Notes:

  • 1990 CMO long-term market forecast is made for 15 years, not 20.
  • Forecast of fleet for the periods 2000-2003, 2005-2008 and 2010-2013 does not come from CMOs published 20 years before, but from 5, 10 and 15-year fleet forecasts included in the CMOs of 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999.
  • Boeing does not publish 5, 10 and 15-year fleet forecasts anymore.
  • It would be interesting to have a per-segment graphic, however there is not consistent data to produce it for the same time span. Boeing changed singe-aisle cut-off seat size from 1999-2000, in 1996-1997 and 2008 didn’t report the split within twin-aisle, in 2008 it also didn’t report the split within single-aisle.

2 Comments

Filed under Aerospace & Defence

Espa√Īa: IRPF, Impuesto de Patrimonio, Fondos de Inversi√≥n y PIB

A ra√≠z de una conversaci√≥n que tuve la semana pasada record√© que ten√≠a guardadas algunas tablas y gr√°ficas interesantes escaneadas de la edici√≥n impresa de El Pa√≠s de 2010 (8 y 20 de mayo, y 17 de octubre; nunca las he encontrado en formato digital). Las comparto en el blog, porque me servir√°n para referirme a ellas (en conversaciones offline y online) en el futuro y seguramente escriba alguna otra entrada usando n√ļmeros que aparecen en ellas.

IRPF en Espa√Īa en 2007 (fuente: El Pa√≠s, 20.05.2010).

Impuesto de Patrimonio en Espa√Īa en 2007 (fuente: El Pa√≠s, 20.05.2010).

Fondos de inversi√≥n en Espa√Īa (fuente: El Pa√≠s, 17.10.2010).

Evoluci√≥n del PIB en Espa√Īa de 1978-2010 (fuente: El Pa√≠s, 08.05.2010).

1 Comment

Filed under Economy

Aircraft market forecasts accuracy

In a previous post I wrote about how the predicted average aircraft size by Boeing in 1990 did not match the actual evolution of that average size since then. In a more general context, how accurate are these aircraft market forecasts? Especially taking into account that they forecast along a 20-year period.

I dug in the archives and found an article in Flight International‘s¬†issue of 10-16 March 1993 which compared Airbus’ GMF and Boeing’s CMO (you can find 2012 comparison here). Some excerpts from that article:

  • “Boeing is projecting deliveries¬†of 12,005 aircraft, worth¬†$815 billion at current values,¬†from 1993 to 2010.”
  • (Boeing) “The trend towards larger aircraft¬†will accelerate so that,¬†although single-aisle types will¬†account for about two-thirds of¬†all deliveries, they will comprise¬†74% of those up to 2000¬†and only 60% beyond.”
  • “Airbus Industrie has released¬†an upbeat forecast,¬†predicting market demand for¬†11,653 new jet airliners to be¬†delivered during 1992-2011,¬†up from the 11,500 deliveries¬†predicted in 1991.”
  • (Airbus) “The manufacturer foresees¬†an accelerating demand for¬†widebodied aircraft, driving¬†average airliner size from¬†today’s 176 seats to 255 seats¬†in 20 years.”
  • (Airbus) “The global jet-airliner¬†fleet will grow to 10,000 by¬†1998 and to almost 15,000¬†by 2011.

Now, let’s see what was the fleet at the end of 2011. Seeing Airbus’ Global Market Forecast from 2012, the departing numbers are those of 2011 fleet.

  • Passenger aircraft: 15,556 a/c.
  • Freighter aircraft: 1,615 a/c.

Thus, 17,171 a/c at the end 0f 2011. The GMF from 1992 underestimated the 20-year market by slightly above 2,100 or nearly 15% error. Not a bad shot taking into account the time span used.

Let’s take a more recent example, this time from Boeing. In the CMO from 1997, we find the following chart showing Boeing’s forecasted fleet size and distribution for 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016 year-ends.

1997 Boeing CMO year-end fleet forecasts for 2001, 2006, 2011 & 2016.

In 2012 CMO, Boeing offered figures of 2011 year-end fleet.

Fleet at year end 2011 according to Boeing 2012 CMO.

We can make a quick comparison:

Comparison of aircraft fleet at year-end 2011: 1997 forecast vs. actual (sources: Boeing CMO 1997 and 2012).

Some reflections:

  • The total fleet figure was missed only by 1%.
  • The single-aisle figure was missed only by 2%, though less larger single-aisle were acquired than expected.
  • Where the forecast is off mark is in both regional jets (underestimated) and twin-aisle, where there are almost 1,800 less aircraft in the current fleet than forecasted… another reason for Boeing to play down on A380 segment.

***

NOTE: Figures of current fleet from Boeing and Airbus differ. Some causes: Airbus does not include figures for regional jets, and definitions between large aircraft and twin-aisle vary from one company to the other. Other than that, figures for freighters are similar, 1,615 (A) vs. 1,740 (B), as they are for passenger single-aisles, 12,161 (A) vs 12,030 (B).

3 Comments

Filed under Aerospace & Defence

Aircraft average size: Boeing’s forecast in 1990 and following evolution

Boeing, in its Commercial Market Outlook forecast, currently downplays the potential of the A380. Two years ago, I wrote a post in which I collected some views from Boeing in 1996:

‚ÄúMost major aerospace companies agree that airlines will require 500 to 700 airplanes capable of carrying more than 500 passengers.¬†Boeing forecasts 500 airplanes will be needed by the year 2015. […]”

Boeing later left a joint study with Airbus for the Very Large Commercial Transport (VLCT).

Going backwards further than 1996, I found in Flight International issue of 5-11 September 1990 the following chart showing Boeing’s estimate for the average size of airplanes up to 2005. It showed an ever increased average size:

Average aircraft size forecast made in 1990.

Seven years later, in the 1997 CMO Boeing forecasted as well an ever-increasing average aircraft size (though trimmed from 1990 forecast):

Average size evolution forecast (source: Boeing CMO 1997).

However, you may see the evolution since then in this other chart from Boeing’s CMO below:

Average aircraft size evolution 1991-2011.

In a following post I will compare how accurate these market forecasts are in general and by segment. As we will see, the general figures for fleet and for some segments were well predicted, not so for other segments.

3 Comments

Filed under Aerospace & Defence